Silly question, but why wouldn't go run a train to Niagara out of Lewis Yard (just past the new GO Stn under construction (Confederation).
That's a lot closer to Niagara, and they do use it store the Hamilton morning trains or at least some of them on weekdays.
Looks like GO has significant room for more tracks there as well.
I think it's because Lewis Yard didn't exist in 2009 when the previous Niagara schedule was written.
The yard was designed to be expanded to 10 or so trains, but only 4 train storage spots were actually built in the initial phase:
All of those spots are now occupied by the trainsets running West Harbour commuter trips (including the one Niagara commuter trip).
As a side note, the first phase also didn't build the connecting tracks toward Niagara since weekday Niagara service wasn't scheduled to begin until years after opening. Which means that the current weekday service needs to head westbound out of the yard, then reverse eastbound to Niagara, enter service westbound, drive past West Harbour, reverse eastbound into the station before continuing westbound to Bayview Junction where the tracks curve eastbound to Toronto. Like Drum said, it's a tremendous waste of resources, given that the train only saves 9 minutes compared to the simultaneous Route 12 bus, far less than would be saved by simply running an express trip on route 12:
note that Niagara Falls bus terminal is right across the street from the station
As I described in my last post, you could use one of those commuter trainsets for weekend service, but if you want to also store a Niagara trainset with bike coaches you'd need to either add tracks or shorten both the Niagara train and one of the commuter trains to 6 cars each to fit in a single 12-car train slot like they sometimes do on the Barrie Line.
I also heard through the grapevine (and no idea if this has any credence, so take it with a grain of salt) that Metrolinx has looked for an excuse to cancel or heavily reduce the 16 for a few years now. Apparently to push people to use the trains at Hamilton Centre and West Harbour and justify the cost of those stations. Any insight on this?
On one hand I'm skeptical because the 16 is usually very well traveled, and it's just so convenient. Back in March (last time I took it) it made the trip in just about 45-50 minutes. On the other hand, it's Metrolinx. They're unpredictable at best and prone to misjudgments at worst.
Yes, it's safe to assume that GO plans to phase out the 16 in the long term, in fact Phil Verster pretty much says so at
1:15:17 in this video. But that phaseout needs to come in tandem with all-day express train service to Hamilton (probably West Harbour). Express being a key word here - extending the local service one stop further wouldn't count because it would still be so much slower than route 16.
I happened to have a spreadsheet version of the October 2018 Route 16 schedule so I plotted the Hamilton Centre to Toronto Union travel times over the course of the day, along with the four direct Lakeshore West express trains:
By my estimate (
and others'), trains running the weekend express stopping pattern take about 1:00 from West Harbour to Union, which is faster than Route 16's schedule for most of the day. Of course, Hamilton Centre station is much more convenient than West Harbour, but even accounting for increased access time to the station, the difference is relatively minor. While it's also true that the 16 commonly arrives ahead of schedule, that possible time savings is highly sporadic based on traffic conditions. While the bus often takes as little as 0:50 in the midday, it can also easily take 1:20.
My personal guess is that the 16 will be canceled when hourly express service is introduced between Hamilton West Harbour and Toronto Union. That's an unfortunate drop in frequency compared to the current 20 to 30-minute bus service, but the train frequency will subsequently increase over time. The 16 might be retained for late-evening trips when there's less traffic and train service would therefore be less beneficial (after 21:00 based on the above chart).
