I recently read Steve Munro's discussions around the lower TTC passenger counts in 2016. I was very interested that it assumes a Metropass rider uses 73 rides a month as part of the count. This has been constant and I don't think has changed over the years. Crazy that they have not monitored via a sample or some other method.
I think you need around 50 rides before it is economical.
Based on the increase in usage of the Metropass (due to higher incentives to use) I would not be surprised if this is no longer a valid assumption. How many people would have more than 2.4 rides a day (including weekends)? If you assume you do not use transit on weekends it turns into 3.5 rides a day. Or if you only use 2 trips a weekday (to/from work) you would need 30 "pleasure" trips a month.
Some people would use it to this extent. However, the vast majority I expect only use it 50 rides a month. I'm guessing the average is around 55 rides.
You may ask so what? Well it impacts the subsidy per trip, the fare collection assumptions if there is a cap on rides per month, etc.
Subsidy per ride -- Using my above broad assumptions this means that the TTC receives about $1.00 per ride as a subsidy (versus the $0.87 as advertised). We would not be an outlier but similar to NYC in the subsidy.
TTC numbers - if the number of rides per year is wrong, what else is wrong? What data can the TTC Management rely on to make informed decisions (or at least should be relying upon)
Metropass take-up -- now that users know exactly how many rides they are using post-Presto, how many would want a Metropass? The economics of it changes once the users are more self-selection (lower use ones now will be on a per ride basis). This means only large users will want it (and hence the price should increase to match this change in user profile).
Future pricing scheme -- How do we make sure any changes to the pricing scheme are revenue neutral? How do we know what the impact will be?