[jje1000]

The problem I think is that people just believe at the back of their minds that high speed rail isn't happening, due to a long history of unimplemented rail plans, a lack of rail culture in the region, the relative lack of progress/news, and the long implementation time for this project.

 

[steveintoronto]

The problem I think is that people just believe at the back of their minds that high speed rail isn't happening, due to a long history of unimplemented rail plans, a lack of rail culture in the region, the relative lack of progress/news, and the long implementation time for this project.

Indeed!

[...]
But as the Liberals continue their quest for foreign infrastructure capital, they’re unlikely to get much investment love from China.

“Maybe in Canada you have complete procedures for conducting large-scale infrastructure projects,” the Chinese ambassador said. “In China, the procedures are also complete, but those procedures go very fast. So, to complete it, a project takes less time.”

Lu brought up an example to make his point: a recent proposal to build high-speed rail corridor between Toronto and Windsor, Ont.

The rail line would stretch nearly 400 kilometres and aims to be fully operational in 2031, a time frame that includes construction and regulatory processes such as environmental assessments. Its estimated cost is $20 billion.

In comparison, Lu said, a recently completed Kenyan railway between Nairobi and Mombasa — mostly funded by China — took fewer than three years to build, from the planning stage to finish. He added that the project also included the construction of nine new stations along the 480-kilometre line. [...]

http://nationalpost.com/pmn/news-pm...nvoy/wcm/7c64c6ad-383a-4852-9ea1-115dd432b021

 

[ssiguy2]

This maybe come a bigger issue than the Conservatives think. In the urban seats of Windsor, London, KWC, and Guelph the Conservatives hold only one single seat. They need to transfer some of those seats in order to take back QP. The polls state that the Tories are strong in SWO but that is VERY deceptive. Their strength in rural SWO is very strong and this masks the fact that their support in the urban areas of SWO is soft. They need SWO and a big budget item in SWO to swing these voters and to let that voting area know that they will not be another Toronto-centric party like the current Liberals. People in SWO {especially London & Windsor feel very neglected by QP and further alienating by the cancellation of this project will only reinforce this.

 

[lead82]

This maybe come a bigger issue than the Conservatives think. In the urban seats of Windsor, London, KWC, and Guelph the Conservatives hold only one single seat. They need to transfer some of those seats in order to take back QP. The polls state that the Tories are strong in SWO but that is VERY deceptive. Their strength in rural SWO is very strong and this masks the fact that their support in the urban areas of SWO is soft. They need SWO and a big budget item in SWO to swing these voters and to let that voting area know that they will not be another Toronto-centric party like the current Liberals. People in SWO {especially London & Windsor feel very neglected by QP and further alienating by the cancellation of this project will only reinforce this.

Very few people in SWO care about VIA service. Those that do will vote Liberal. The rest will care more about tax cuts and the usual Conservstive goodies. Spending $20B on high speed rail is a collosal waste of money to build a white elephant. We first need to build frequent traditional rail service. I'm talking about hourly service or better connecting SWO to Toronto and beyond. VIA mentioned a few years ago improvements proposed (or rather to restore some service cut in 2000s), but all that was just talk. That should be the main priority. Not some high speed train for $300 a trip between Windsor and Toronto! It's like UPX. There is not much of a market for premium product. SWO is not wealthy. It's mostly senior and students travelling. The product needs to be cheap and frequent to compete with the bus and driving.

 

[crs1026]

Very few people in SWO care about VIA service. Those that do will vote Liberal. The rest will care more about tax cuts and the usual Conservstive goodies. Spending $20B on high speed rail is a collosal waste of money to build a white elephant. We first need to build frequent traditional rail service. I'm talking about hourly service or better connecting SWO to Toronto and beyond. VIA mentioned a few years ago improvements proposed (or rather to restore some service cut in 2000s), but all that was just talk. That should be the main priority. Not some high speed train for $300 a trip between Windsor and Toronto! It's like UPX. There is not much of a market for premium product. SWO is not wealthy. It's mostly senior and students travelling. The product needs to be cheap and frequent to compete with the bus and driving.

I agree totally about what's needed - faster, more frequent, higher capacity, but conventional and incremental upgrading of what's there, fares not at business-class level. I don't agree with your description of the market, however. Students and seniors use the train today because they are the only customers for whom today's trains fit their situation. But the ridership that better trains will attract does not consist of more students and seniors. It consists of people who use their automobiles today for the same trip.

This is all about modal share. The benefit to people in SW Ont today is fewer white-knuckle drives in bad weather, less sitting in stop and go traffic, not seeing the price of frequent accidents in their car insurance bill, not seeing the price of new highway construction in their tax bill, not having to own a transponder for highway tolls, not having to pay attention to the road at all times on the drive, not paying for parking in expensive urban areas, and above all time saved in travel.

I do think Ontario should be planning for new high speed lines. If we are going to need new pathways especially across the GTA we should be identifying these and putting them in the Official Plans today, and maybe acquiring and banking the land. They will make sense one day and by then there may be too much development in the way. But actual construction may be for another decade. Improve the existing trains, and people will see the benefit of high speed lines much sooner.

- Paul

 

[lead82]

Fair point. I agree. Improving service would attract more passengers.

 

[mdrejhon]

Fair point. I agree. Improving service would attract more passengers.

At the end of the day, incremental upgrades (GO -> GO RER -> Allday electrified -> HSR) will simply make HSR cheaper. Electrified all-day service encourages the elimination of level crossings, which makes the line more HSR-friendly. And you can lay things like concrete ties and higher-speed switches for not much more, provided they are laid at the time the rail is laid. Building an HSR-compatible incremental RER upgrades might only cost a few percent more.

The problem is staging smartly. Spending in the correct order, with all contractors completing

Many have agreed Metrolinx could do things a little more carefully in staging their upgrades in a more tax-efficient manner to prevent assets from laying idle too long (e.g. less-used track expansions, missing track/switch bottlenecks, and little-used stations that are awaiting GO service expansions to fully utilize).

For me, the whole plan is, on average, quite sensible and needs to continue (e.g. the migration to proper, non-watered-down, all day 2-way 15-min GO service -- with great transit connections like Crosstown LRT and subway included.

Staging smartly in the right order, incrementally, without interim problematic gaps like the current Brampton hourly GO train service -- partially caused by missing pre-requisites. Or the "semi hourly" Stoufville service. Things like the incomplete Georgetown Corrodor upgrades, missing switches, missing tunnels under 401 or other reasons. That's an interim/temporary situation (lasting for a year or few), but should have been avoided in the first place with smarter staging in many ways. While I like the overall GO RER plan, I think that order-of-spending could be greatly improved, so that service deployments are more consistent and quicker.

In some cases, the switch from bus to train service lead to a schedule downgrade, which needs to be compensated-for by more consistent/regular/frequent train service and better municipal transit connections. But there can be a time period where the service gap makes it feel like a far bigger downgrade for a few GO travellers than it should be (e.g. bus service stopping at certain stops, in exchange for trains appearing at an inconvenient-on-foot suburban GO train station) -- until train frequency and municipal bus service catches up, and/or adjustments to connecting GO service are made, etc.

 

[steveintoronto]

I agree totally about what's needed - faster, more frequent, higher capacity, but conventional and incremental upgrading of what's there, fares not at business-class level.

I do think Ontario should be planning for new high speed lines. If we are going to need new pathways especially across the GTA we should be identifying these and putting them in the Official Plans today, and maybe acquiring and banking the land. They will make sense one day and by then there may be too much development in the way.

Improving service would attract more passengers.

At the end of the day, incremental upgrades (GO -> GO RER -> Allday electrified -> HSR) will simply make HSR cheaper. Electrified all-day service encourages the elimination of level crossings, which makes the line more HSR-friendly. And you can lay things like concrete ties and higher-speed switches for not much more, provided they are laid at the time the rail is laid. Building an HSR-compatible incremental RER upgrades might only cost a few percent more.

Which all leads to this: "you can lay things like concrete ties and higher-speed switches for not much more, provided they are laid at the time the rail is laid. Building an HSR-compatible incremental RER upgrades might only cost a few percent more". Absolutely agreed! Except once that is in place, you may not be ready to run HSR, but you can run a lot faster than the present or proposed GO speeds. Especially for the GTHA, it's not so much High Speed per-se that's needed, it's "Higher Speed Than Now". Putting that extra into upgrading the RER infrastructure is money very well spent.

 

[kEiThZ]

The problem I think is that people just believe at the back of their minds that high speed rail isn't happening, due to a long history of unimplemented rail plans, a lack of rail culture in the region, the relative lack of progress/news, and the long implementation time for this project.

The problem is that people know a stunt when they see one. Why blame voters for being skeptical when politicians have pulled the exact same stunt before?

This maybe come a bigger issue than the Conservatives think. In the urban seats of Windsor, London, KWC, and Guelph the Conservatives hold only one single seat. They need to transfer some of those seats in order to take back QP. The polls state that the Tories are strong in SWO but that is VERY deceptive. Their strength in rural SWO is very strong and this masks the fact that their support in the urban areas of SWO is soft. They need SWO and a big budget item in SWO to swing these voters and to let that voting area know that they will not be another Toronto-centric party like the current Liberals. People in SWO {especially London & Windsor feel very neglected by QP and further alienating by the cancellation of this project will only reinforce this.

This is simplistic analysis. I would bet money that the vast, vast majority of voters in those areas don't care about rail transport as a voting issue. Let alone being enough of an issue to be single issue voters. I expect the PCs to pick up seats in the suburban ridings of all the SWO cities. Especially as vote splitting on the left benefits them well in those parts too.

This is all about modal share.

This. If there aren't gains in modal share, we'll have to facilitate a lot more driving from SWO in the future. Including 401 lane expansions. We already have 6 lanes to just outside London.

Building an HSR-compatible incremental RER upgrades might only cost a few percent more.

Sure. But I see no evidence, Ontario is doing any of this. If anything, that recent Hydrogen Train gambit has me doubting whether the Liberals are serious about RER, let alone building one that will facilitate HSR.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Because we don't actually turf governments for not delivering on major infrastructure promises. You can bet the Liberals would be far more serious if there were several seats under threat in Kitchener, London, and Guelph and that threat was entirely because people were pissed about HSR not being delivered.

Indeed!

http://nationalpost.com/pmn/news-pm...nvoy/wcm/7c64c6ad-383a-4852-9ea1-115dd432b021

Perhaps the federal government would be wise to examine why Canadian infrastructure is so expensive, and takes so long to build. We're at the point where, even when a project might have widespread political support at a given time, the duration of these projects makes it highly likely for them to be canceled.

 

[kEiThZ]

Perhaps the federal government would be wise to examine why Canadian infrastructure is so expensive, and takes so long to build. We're at the point where, even when a project might have widespread political support at a given time, the duration of these projects makes it highly likely for them to be canceled.

Have a years long Royal Commission on why projects take years?

We know why they take years. The biggest one is a lack of definitive political commitment. Our plans don't survive elections. And that's the biggest problem. The rest of it is less of an issue now that they have a faster EA process with the TPAP.

It's the same thing I see inside the military. "Our procurement process is broken." No, it isn't. The same process has delivered multi-billion dollar purchases ahead of schedule and under budget during a war, when the political will is there. It's only broken when politicians insist they have to have a different solution than what the last government promised, and then drag their feet when analysis shows them how wrong their election pledges were. What we have going on with infrastructure is no different

 

[ssiguy2]

mdrejhon.............you bring up Metrolinx and GO but this analyses is exactly what is NOT needed.

This is not a project to primarily benefit people in Toronto but rather people in SWO. Wynne has proven herself to be the Premier of Toronto which is one of the reasons why she is so unpopular outside Toronto. KW/Guelph/Pearson can be served by GO, RER, UPX but none of those things are relevant for SWO. Coonection to Pearson from KW/G is very important but little use for most Londoners and useless for Windsorites.

Incremental change will do nothing and will certainly not get new passengers onto the system. They need high frequency AND high speed rail but it doesn't have to cost a fortune or even be electrified. Downtown London is 200km from Toronto via the 401 but only 180km via VIA as the route between the 2 is much more direct. Having a Union/London express and building the Brantford bypass and using the northern railway along HWY#2 and not via Ingersol would shave at least an hour off the trip.

 

[steveintoronto]

Perhaps the federal government would be wise to examine why Canadian infrastructure is so expensive, and takes so long to build.

There are some clear answers to that in many instances, and other nations have learned how to do projects in reasonable time, on-time, and on-budget. One of the worst offenders (the UK) has now established a new model for themselves to solve many of those problems:
Crossrail: on time and on budget, is this how to get a major infrastructure project right?
https://www.civilserviceworld.com/a...et-how-get-major-infrastructure-project-right

A huge part is being spun off from political interference by having a stand-alone corporation (with the two shareholders, civic and national governments, on the board). Metrolinx is using a mild version of this on Crosstown, but it's still open to political interference.

KW/Guelph/Pearson can be served by GO, RER, UPX but none of those things are relevant for SWO.

Wynne has proven herself to be the Premier of Toronto which is one of the reasons why she is so unpopular outside Toronto.

You just negated yourself between those last two quotes. K/W isn't Toronto...

I think you might have a challenge getting John Tory to agree with you...

 

[Longview]

We know why they take years. The biggest one is a lack of definitive political commitment. Our plans don't survive elections.

On the nose.

 

[lead82]

Politics is why things don't get built here. We have too many layers of government and for large projects we need 3 levels to align and there to be enough political will for the project to survive at least one if not two to three elections! If we can have projects where only 1-2 layers of government are involved it may help to get things done faster. That won't happen with the current funding pattern. All governments want to partake in the infrastructure action. Who doesn't like to cut a ribbon in front of the camera?