[MisterF]

Would VIA still run conventional rail service when most of the passengers along that line could move to HSR? If they do run it as through HFR, why would they not use the HSR track to speed up service?

I just don't see the business case for a separate service. There's a better argument for an intermediate station at Stratford, that can have bus services other small towns nearby.

The plan we've seen so far is to run trains between Kitchener and London via Stratford at conventional speeds. That will of course be refined through the TPAP. It's how HSR networks are typically set up - slower lines through small towns typically retain conventional speed service even when they're bypassed by HSR. High speed lines can't be run in a vacuum; they have to be part of a larger network. Slower feeder lines through small towns might not have a business case in isolation, but they're important as part of the larger network and an important source of HSR ridership.

 

[BurlOak]

So it'll go from being HSR to a really good HFR line? This is the worst case scenario? I'm still good with that.

HSR is a stretch goal.

 

[cplchanb]

I have long maintained the HSR should have a stop at Stratford. Allows tourists to get to the Stratford festival. And will allow the town to become an ex-urb to Toronto and suburb to London and KWC.

they can prob have a seasonal stop there and for the rest of the year be run by conventional feeders

 

[Irishmonk]

So, in reality it could mean increased service to 2 smallish cities, a seasonal tourist trap and maybe some other rinky dink milk stops along the way. Kind of like what it is now, but maybe, incrementally, a touch better.

Definitely not even in the same league--hell, not even the same sport--as actual HSR. Might as well just skip HSR (which is totally unrealistic for the projected ridership unless subsidizing 90% -95% per ride is a good thing) and wait for the Hyperloop to connect Chicago, Detroit, Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal sometime this century.

 

[crs1026]

So, in reality it could mean increased service to 2 smallish cities, a seasonal tourist trap and maybe some other rinky dink milk stops along the way. Kind of like what it is now, but maybe, incrementally, a touch better.

Definitely not even in the same league--hell, not even the same sport--as actual HSR. Might as well just skip HSR (which is totally unrealistic for the projected ridership unless subsidizing 90% -95% per ride is a good thing) and wait for the Hyperloop to connect Chicago, Detroit, Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal sometime this century.

More than “a touch” better. No one is saying the rinky dink stops need hour service. Most trains would fly through.

The threshold IMHO is a travel time that is auto competitive when the first/last mile segment is factored in. So, for instance, Waterloo to Markham as opposed to London downtown to Toronto Union.

There are enough travel points where less-than-HSR will achieve that, so what is the case (other than bragging rights) for something more extravagant?

We need to find the optimal expense point, which may imply tradeoffs against pure HSR, rather than taking a “nothing less will do” mentality.

- Paul

 

[MisterF]

So, in reality it could mean increased service to 2 smallish cities, a seasonal tourist trap and maybe some other rinky dink milk stops along the way. Kind of like what it is now, but maybe, incrementally, a touch better.

Definitely not even in the same league--hell, not even the same sport--as actual HSR. Might as well just skip HSR (which is totally unrealistic for the projected ridership unless subsidizing 90% -95% per ride is a good thing) and wait for the Hyperloop to connect Chicago, Detroit, Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal sometime this century.

Source for the 95% figure? The first phase to Kitchener and, to a lesser extent, London would be well used. I'm more skeptical about the extension to Windsor.

Anything that serves Stratford and St. Marys is going to be conventional speed rail and not HSR. Any HSR isn't going to directly serve Stratford and St. Marys, even seasonally. The high speed line wouldn't get any closer than ~20 km from either town. But building HSR and improving service to Stratford aren't mutually exclusive. I'd argue that the business case for the existing line through Stratford could actually improve if a parallel HSR is built because rail ridership as a whole would increase substantially. People from those towns and surrounding rural areas would be more likely to take the train if their local milk run fed into a high speed rail spine, than now when the milk run takes hours to get anywhere. In France for example, similar local lines still serve small towns despite the fact that the TGV bypasses them.

 

[ssiguy2]

HSR is a stretch goal.

If it`s a stretch goal then why the hell are they even considering spending $11 billion on it? That`s like spending subway money and ending up with a regular streetcar. Guelph and Chatham shouldn't be getting stations little alone Stratford or St.Mary's {with Glencoe and Tilbury being the next stop requests}. Remember originally this line promises Union to London rail times of 70 minutes and it should be kept, at a minimum, to that time. This is why London City Hall was so excited about it.

High Frequency Rail is a complete cop-out. If they are going to spend this money {which I definitely don't think they should} then running more frequent trains on already painfully slow routes which only congest the system more, is an obscene waste of funds. Right now Londoners can get to Toronto faster and more reliably on the Greyhound.

This line was a political one and not based on any proper transportation planning little alone a solid business case. Build the Brantford by-pass, improve the current line and Windsor/London/Union express trains on high-speed diesel trains and save yourself $9 billion and Londoners would still get to Union in 70 minutes.

 

[TOareaFan]

If it`s a stretch goal then why the hell are they even considering spending $11 billion on it? That`s like spending subway money and ending up with a regular streetcar. Guelph and Chatham shouldn't be getting stations little alone Stratford or St.Mary's {with Glencoe and Tilbury being the next stop requests}. Remember originally this line promises Union to London rail times of 70 minutes and it should be kept, at a minimum, to that time. This is why London City Hall was so excited about it.

High Frequency Rail is a complete cop-out. If they are going to spend this money {which I definitely don't think they should} then running more frequent trains on already painfully slow routes which only congest the system more, is an obscene waste of funds. Right now Londoners can get to Toronto faster and more reliably on the Greyhound.

This line was a political one and not based on any proper transportation planning little alone a solid business case. Build the Brantford by-pass, improve the current line and Windsor/London/Union express trains on high-speed diesel trains and save yourself $9 billion and Londoners would still get to Union in 70 minutes.

I don’t recall this line being originally about London at all....let alone being about 70 minute trip times. This train was all about connecting Kitchener to Pearson and Union.....London was an add on.

 

[Streety McCarface]

Why can't you have intermediate stations in Chatham, Guelph, and Stratford? What you need then are passing tracks at each station so express trains can pass each other. This is like the Tokaido Shinkansen where Kodama trains are local high-speed trains, Hikari trains are express high-speed trains, Hikari Rail Star trains are commuter express high-speed trains, and finally Nozomi trains are limited-express high-speed trains. You can have a similar system here.

 

[kEiThZ]

The plan we've seen so far is to run trains between Kitchener and London via Stratford at conventional speeds.

That's cause VIA's plans haven't really adjusted yet for HSR. Do you really think the won't change or just drop service, if demand tanks post-HSR?

The only way I can see this panning out where VIA retains service is as some kind of HFR through service. But as a standalone Toronto-London-Windsor/Sarnia service, I don't see the business case.

 

[MisterF]

I don’t recall this line being originally about London at all....let alone being about 70 minute trip times. This train was all about connecting Kitchener to Pearson and Union.....London was an add on.

I agree that London is an add-on, but that travel time is more or less accurate. From Toronto to London with the recommended 250 km/h option is 73 minutes. Toronto to Kitchener would be 48 minutes. That could of course change when more detailed planning is completed.

Why can't you have intermediate stations in Chatham, Guelph, and Stratford? What you need then are passing tracks at each station so express trains can pass each other. This is like the Tokaido Shinkansen where Kodama trains are local high-speed trains, Hikari trains are express high-speed trains, Hikari Rail Star trains are commuter express high-speed trains, and finally Nozomi trains are limited-express high-speed trains. You can have a similar system here.

That's basically what's being planned east of Kitchener. But west of Kitchener the existing line takes a meandering path through Stratford, St. Marys, Baden, Thorndale, Shakespeare, and New Hamburg. It has sharp curves and many grade crossings. That all increases travel times and/or impacts on existing communities. The proposed route between Kitchener and London is 10+ km shorter than the existing line and doesn't go through any towns. That means that the trains could cruise at 250 km/h for the whole distance, which means significantly faster trips. These types of new lines are routine when building HSR, including in Japan. For example, the Tokaido Shinkansen runs more or less parallel to the Tokaido Main Line. The Main Line serves a lot of small towns that the Shinkansen doesn't. France, a country more comparable to the population density of southern Ontario, does the same thing.

That's cause VIA's plans haven't really adjusted yet for HSR. Do you really think the won't change or just drop service, if demand tanks post-HSR?

The only way I can see this panning out where VIA retains service is as some kind of HFR through service. But as a standalone Toronto-London-Windsor/Sarnia service, I don't see the business case.

True, Via hasn't adjusted for HSR because it's too early for that - the TPAP isn't even finished yet. They're no doubt involved in the design process. Still, the way that services would be operated was thought through on a conceptual level in 2016. Personally I think all the rail services should be run by the same agency, but I digress.

Why do you think demand would tank? There can't be a lot of through traffic on that line so it stands to reason that a significant percentage of the ridership is locally generated traffic. And as I mentioned above, there are countless examples of a similar setups in similar contexts where demand hasn't tanked and there are still trains on the old lines. The same could be done here.

 

[kEiThZ]

Why do you think demand would tank? And as I mentioned above, there are countless examples of a similar setups in similar contexts where demand hasn't tanked and there are still trains on the old lines. The same could be done here.

You will have GO RER up till Kitchener, and London via SML, for people who don't want to spend that much, and don't mind spending more time on the train. And you'll have HSR for people who want to save time. So the only people left to service on that line are riders getting on/off at Stratford and Saint Marys with VIA. I don't see the business case to continue service here. Hand off to Metrolinx and give anybody from a VIA train, due for a destination on NML, a GO RER or HSR transfer and run bus services to Saint Marys and Stratford as needed.

VIA could, if they have the capacity for it, split their HFR service at Union with half the trains on the NML and half on the SML. But again, you'd need a solid business case to do that, vs just handing those passengers transfers onto the HSR and RER. Say you're coming from Ottawa or Montreal and travelling to London. Why would you want to stay on the train for a longer trip, vs. just getting a transfer to HSR (included in your VIA fare)? Sort of like how GO and VIA offer combined fares today.

Handing off also means that VIA could concentrate services better. Maybe HFR becomes an hourly through service (at Union) till London on the SML, with the NML left to Metrolinx.

 

[Streety McCarface]

That's basically what's being planned east of Kitchener. But west of Kitchener the existing line takes a meandering path through Stratford, St. Marys, Baden, Thorndale, Shakespeare, and New Hamburg. It has sharp curves and many grade crossings. That all increases travel times and/or impacts on existing communities. The proposed route between Kitchener and London is 10+ km shorter than the existing line and doesn't go through any towns. That means that the trains could cruise at 250 km/h for the whole distance, which means significantly faster trips. These types of new lines are routine when building HSR, including in Japan. For example, the Tokaido Shinkansen runs more or less parallel to the Tokaido Main Line. The Main Line serves a lot of small towns that the Shinkansen doesn't. France, a country more comparable to the population density of southern Ontario, does the same thing.

They don't have to be in any city centres to serve the city. Even if it's 2-5km away from the city centre, it could still function as a valid station location (For the likes of Stratford and Chatham anyways).

 

[MisterF]

You will have GO RER up till Kitchener, and London via SML, for people who don't want to spend that much, and don't mind spending more time on the train. And you'll have HSR for people who want to save time. So the only people left to service on that line are riders getting on/off at Stratford and Saint Marys with VIA. I don't see the business case to continue service here. Hand off to Metrolinx and give anybody from a VIA train, due for a destination on NML, a GO RER or HSR transfer and run bus services to Saint Marys and Stratford as needed.

VIA could, if they have the capacity for it, split their HFR service at Union with half the trains on the NML and half on the SML. But again, you'd need a solid business case to do that, vs just handing those passengers transfers onto the HSR and RER. Say you're coming from Ottawa or Montreal and travelling to London. Why would you want to stay on the train for a longer trip, vs. just getting a transfer to HSR (included in your VIA fare)? Sort of like how GO and VIA offer combined fares today.

Handing off also means that VIA could concentrate services better. Maybe HFR becomes an hourly through service (at Union) till London on the SML, with the NML left to Metrolinx.

I missed what you said earlier - "as a standalone Toronto-London-Windsor/Sarnia service, I don't see the business case" - I think we're talking about different things. Even today hardly anyone takes the north mainline when going from Toronto to London; it's slow and infrequent. Much of the ridership is from the small towns it serves, not from the larger cities. With HSR it would essentially be a rail version of what you're proposing with buses - a line that goes to those towns from the HSR stations in Kitchener and London.



And there's nothing wrong with that; short rail lines that primarily serve small towns that have been bypassed by HSR exist all over the place. Still running trains to towns like these is standard practice.

They don't have to be in any city centres to serve the city. Even if it's 2-5km away from the city centre, it could still function as a valid station location (For the likes of Stratford and Chatham anyways).

Well for Chatham, the recommended option includes a station there. For Stratford and St. Marys, as I've mentioned before, the line would be 20 km from the city centre, not 2-3. The line would follow the hydro corridor that cuts a straight line between the two cities. You can see the route in the map below, which really illustrates how far from Stratford it is and how much shorter it makes the HSR trip.

 

[crs1026]

But west of Kitchener the existing line takes a meandering path through Stratford, St. Marys, Baden, Thorndale, Shakespeare, and New Hamburg. It has sharp curves and many grade crossings. That all increases travel times and/or impacts on existing communities.

Meandering? It’s straight as an arrow in most places, and most curves are gentle. Way better alignment than what VIA faces on the Havelock Sub. The only really tight unfixable spot is St Marys itself, and that might have to be speed restricted anyways due to its ‘urban’ location.

The proposed route between Kitchener and London is 10+ km shorter than the existing line and doesn't go through any towns. That means that the trains could cruise at 250 km/h for the whole distance, which means significantly faster trips.

The difference in trip time is small for that slightly shorter route.. To get to 250 km/h, you have to separate all those new grade crossings. The proposed line runs on a diagonal to the road grid, so that’s two crossngs per concession not one. The existing route actually has some grade separations already and it has a more elegant crossing of the road grid. So 175 km/hr on the existing route will be way cheaper to achieve than 250 km/h on the new route. Way cheaper.

Which is why we need to compare demand and price for the two scenarios. I’m not sure that the pure HSR option will prove superior in overall revenue generation, but if it costs double, is that a better return? Sure, at premium price, the faster system might generate the same revenue on a lower trip volume....but are we happy with that as a transportation design? We should be looking to maximise ridership first and revenue second. It’s UPE all over again..... the general transportation need (GTS) never got met while the boutique need got addressed.

BTW - My Windsor friends are actually starting to wake up to Toronto- London HSR and are grumbling about how all the money is being spent “inside the big bubble” and they are getting left out. Don’t write off Windsor in terms of either demand or politics. Again, I don’t see the need for the bizarre high end route that Collenette dreamed up..... just upgrade the existing route to 175 km/h, increase frequency, and see what that produces.

- Paul