[afransen]

Yes, but they won't be serviced by independent mechanics, but instead the software will lock them out, forcing owners to return to Tesla, or whichever brand for pricey dealer service.

The number of independent mechanics is already becoming vanishingly small, EV or ICE.

There are things that will require trained technicians to service, but things like brakes, suspension, alignment etc. ie most of the remaining things that require regular maintenance can be done by generalist mechanics.

 

[lenaitch]

Yes, but they won't be serviced by independent mechanics, but instead the software will lock them out, forcing owners to return to Tesla, or whichever brand for pricey dealer service.

Possibly, but legislation may take hold. The same thing happened when vehicles started using Engine Control Modules that stored fault codes. Initially, the manufacturers held these codes as proprietary information until 'right to repair' legislation emerged allow owners and independent shops access to the diagnostic codes. The same thing is happening, at least with John Deere, in agricultural equipment. Farmers are forced to either transport their equipment to a dealer or wait for a JD tech to attend. There is 'right to repair' legislation pending in several US states.

 

[lenaitch]

A Tesla can gain enough range in 20-30 minutes to drive for 3 hours.

That's from a Level 3 charger (and possibly a proprietary Tesla one), which is fine if your waypoint or destination has 3-phase AC (408v) available.

Personal and possibly commercial road transportation will take a big bite out of petroleum consumption, but there will still be the issue of marine, heavy construction, far north, military, etc.

The number of independent mechanics is already becoming vanishingly small, EV or ICE

Possibly in urban areas but they seem to be abundant enough around here at least. The trick is to find a good one - I rather look for a new dentist.

 

[gabe]

Absolutely agree. The question was how much time, not the existence of time itself. My guess is by the mid 2030s, or about 14-15 years.

I wonder if the era of the family road trip is coming to an end, at least using one's own car. Instead you may need to rent a long range EV and then swap out battery packs along the way.

I would hope by the time we hit the 2030s the batteries in electric cars will be able to go longer distances without charging.

We are seeing the end soon of the private mechanic business. That’s tens of thousands of professionals out of work. That’s progress, some get left behind, but we’d better have something for them to move to, and colleges had better scale back their auto mechanic courses. Cars will become like disposable cell phones. Does Canada even have a means to scrap expired EVs?

Mechanics will have to upgrade their education and become "Auto Technicians" Cars built today are full of technology that the average mechanic cannot fix.

 

[lenaitch]

Mechanics will have to upgrade their education and become "Auto Technicians" Cars built today are full of technology that the average mechanic cannot fix.

It's been like that for at least ten years. One problem with that evolution is they are pretty much code readers and parts replacers. True, intuitive diagnosticians are the dying breed.

 

[afransen]

That's from a Level 3 charger (and possibly a proprietary Tesla one), which is fine if your waypoint or destination has 3-phase AC (408v) available.

If you are driving long distances, it will typically be along highways. Level 2 chargers are fine for destinations/overnight. You don't need 3 phase, 240v dryer plug is typical. 30 amps is plenty.

 

[afransen]

I would hope by the time we hit the 2030s the batteries in electric cars will be able to go longer distances without charging.


Mechanics will have to upgrade their education and become "Auto Technicians" Cars built today are full of technology that the average mechanic cannot fix.

You will be able to buy vehicles with longer ranges. But it often makes more sense to make the vehicle cheaper. 500-600 km range is lots for day to day driving. Does it make sense to spend thousands more on batteries for range you use a couple of times a year, all the save a 20 minute charging stop? There's a reason we don't have 3000 km range gas vehicles.

 

[Admiral Beez]

EDIT: Another note is people have totally discounted the money that is backing technological enhancement and innovations to gasoline engines for cars and fuel efficiency. That has never gone away. There's a lot in play there to keep them in the game,

There is a lot of potential still to be had in ICEs.

Ford Looking At Using Hyper Efficient Prechamber Ignition Technology

Ford is looking into using prechamber ignition technology in its future vehicles that imrpoves efficiency by 23 percent with 15 percent less engine mass.

fordauthority.com

Even two strokes may come back https://www.visordown.com/news/industry/could-revolutionary-two-stroke-mean-big-comeback

 

[afransen]

^ I think hobbyist/recreational ICE vehicles will be around for a good amount of time yet--essentially vehicles where the vroom is a big part of the appeal. But the utility market is going to drop away. It's great that cleaner versions are being developed--2 strokes are absolutely appalling for emissions.

 

[Admiral Beez]

^ I think hobbyist/recreational ICE vehicles will be around for a good amount of time yet--essentially vehicles where the vroom is a big part of the appeal.

I’m a classic car and bike fan. One trend I’m seeing is younger people who like the classic lines but not the mechanicals swap in an electric engine. https://www.momentmotors.com/

The younger classic car fans often just want “turn on and go“, Tesla-like reliability .... which I can attest you don’t get in old engines. I loved my old Triumph motorcycle, but it needed constant attention to keep it running. And that takes patience, learning, experience, tools, talent and workspace and money that not everyone has. I definitely see the appeal of converting classic cars to electric power. Aston Martin is even making these classic conversions themselves.

But that’s out of my price range. I’m more of the MGB market, https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/u-of-c-students-electric-car-conversions-1.5764374

 

[lenaitch]

^ I think hobbyist/recreational ICE vehicles will be around for a good amount of time yet--essentially vehicles where the vroom is a big part of the appeal. But the utility market is going to drop away. It's great that cleaner versions are being developed--2 strokes are absolutely appalling for emissions.

It's not just the vroom factor; it the joy of ownership. My friend's 1950 Ford pickup is certainly not known for vroom. And there are all sorts of categories - cars, trucks, motorcycles, tractors, etc.

Two strokes are certainly not great. The challenge will be for adaptations where weight is an issue. Chainsaws are a good example (same with model aircraft, but not a huge sector), when they are operated a various angles but would be challenged to have a lubrication system. Battery chainsaws are on the market for residential and light forestry use but would be a problem for in-the-woods commercial operations where harvesters (also fossil fueled) aren't suitable.

 

[Towered]

I’m a classic car and bike fan. One trend I’m seeing is younger people who like the classic lines but not the mechanicals swap in an electric engine. https://www.momentmotors.com/

The younger classic car fans often just want “turn on and go“, Tesla-like reliability .... which I can attest you don’t get in old engines. I loved my old Triumph motorcycle, but it needed constant attention to keep it running. And that takes patience, learning, experience, tools, talent and workspace and money that not everyone has. I definitely see the appeal of converting classic cars to electric power. Aston Martin is even making these classic conversions themselves.

But that’s out of my price range. I’m more of the MGB market, https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/u-of-c-students-electric-car-conversions-1.5764374

I love classic cars too because they were far better looking, and constantly check the market to see if there's something I want to pick up, but the major thing always holding me back is the hassle of maintenance. I love the styling, but I'm unwilling to dedicate time, effort, and money into dealing with all the mechanical BS that comes with it. The last thing I need in life is more work. I wish car companies would reissue their beautiful models from the distant past except on a modern powertrain (ideally electric). I feel like there's an untapped market for that.

 

[Admiral Beez]

I love classic cars too because they were far better looking, and constantly check the market to see if there's something I want to pick up, but the major thing always holding me back is the hassle of maintenance. I love the styling, but I'm unwilling to dedicate time, effort, and money into dealing with all the mechanical BS that comes with it. The last thing I need in life is more work. I wish car companies would reissue their beautiful models from the distant past except on a modern powertrain (ideally electric). I feel like there's an untapped market for that.

Funny thing is, once properly fettled a classic vehicle can run forever. My 1982 Suzuki motorcycle has only rudimentary electronics, no sensors, no computer, no emissions controls (sorry world), or warning lights. It just goes and goes. Change the oil and the spark plugs each autumn and you're good to ride to BC and back if you wanted. The owner of today's vehicles can't do any maintenance if they wanted to.

 

[lenaitch]

^ I agree. I don't do much any more except basic maintenance because I pretty much can't touch the the tech of new vehicles (and also I'm getting on). True that home mechanics required space, either owned or available, which many may lack in the city these days. Back in the day I did a complete engine in my car in the driveway (dad wasn't thrilled) and took my bike down to the frame in the basement and it was all just physical mechanics, mostly learned along the journey.

 

[slickpete83]

me in 2050 after being forced to make my classic electric