Cruise and Waymo are already in revenue service in specific markets. Scalability is perhaps an issue, but they tech clearly works.I personally don't think we'll see self-driving as Musk envisions (robotaxis) for a very long time. Well beyond 2030. For a whole host of reasons, including regulation. And because we have no way of dealing with all the vehicles with drivers already on the road.
I think a steady slide into increasing automation is far more likely, with lower risk applications first. Maybe something like semis driving the highways unmanned between cities, first. It's not going to be binary, where we suddenly wake up to robotaxis everywhere. I'm looking more for real world applications outside of some geofenced trials as evidence. I don't see much. When I start seeing Walmart or Fedex send semis between Toronto and Montreal on the 401, maybe I'll be able to say we're 5-10 years out from robotaxis hitting the road. At present, I think something basic like that might happen before 2030. Maybe.
Tusimple is already sending autonomous class 8 trucks on highway runs between depots in the US.
TuSimple builds the world's largest Autonomous Trucks and most advanced Driverless vehicles. Find self-driving freight trucking, Long Haul, Semi-trailer and autopilot systems.