[Eug]

Housing prices recovering: CREA

Housing prices are recovering, with the average resale price in May – skewed by sales in the high-end market – reaching the highest level on record, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Monday.

“National resale housing market activity returned to pre-recession levels in May, 2009. The rebound in activity is being led by an increase in transactions in some of the most expensive markets in the country, which is skewing the national average price upward,” CREA said.

The national average resale price of $319,757 “was up four-tenths of a percentage point from the previous record set in May, 2008,” CREA said.

“Over the past four months, the national …residential average price has recovered 16.4 per cent from the low in January.”

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The median prices were not published. Interestingly though, another report here mentions "There were 49,521 units sold last month, less than 1% below activity in the same month one year ago."

 

[Monaco]

Didn't they say last month that lower-priced inventory was moving the most quickly and driving the sales stats?

I guess that's the wonderful thing about these stats.....they can be analyzed month by month, someone definitely has a vested interest, and "averages" of items that maybe shouldn't be lumped together can be used. Also, if location is so key, it'd be nice if the Globe had been more specific about key locations

 

[cdr108]

lies, damn lies, and then there are statistics ...

it'd be nice if the reporting was consistant and thorough every month.

they should do average AND median prices; total sales; total inventory, new listings; change in prices should also be compared to same month in prior years, not June vs. May vs. April vs. March vs. February vs. January vs. December. I can tell you will 100% certainty that sales will increase m-o-m from December to June ... they do every year.



edit: these comments were posted in the Globe article from readers.
Fairly enlightening if the figures are correct.

US median home price May 2009: $169,000
Cdn median home price May 2009 $319,000 (US$290,000)
Please tell me how this is sustainable especially when you consider that average incomes are actually higher in the US...

The implications of this situation are quite serious which begs a simple question.

Which nations's consumers do you think will have the discretionary income to actively drive an economy in the next twenty years?


info from CREA report:

Major Market MLS® Statistical Survey: MAY 2009
Residential

Dollar Volume ($000); % change y-o-y; Unit Sales; % change y-o-y; Average Price; % change y-o-y; New Listings; % change y-o-y
Toronto 3,793,494.8 1.2 9,589 1.9 395,609 -0.6 13,686 -26.9

 

[Eug]

^^^ I can't read that table. Can you reformat it?

Anyways, the FP article was updated:

Actual sales were up in 14 of the 25 major markets CREA surveys with major markets leading the way. Greater Vancouver sales jumped 16.4% in May from a year earlier. Toronto sales were up 1.9%, Montreal 8.2%, Calgary 11.3% and Edmonton 18.7%.

EDIT:

OK I figured it out. Toronto:

Dollar Volume ($000): 3,793,494.8 (+1.2%)
Unit Sales: 9,589 (+1.9%)
Average Price: $395,609 (-0.6%)
New Listings: 13,686 (-26.9%)

This stuff for Toronto we already knew though, since it was published last week.

 

[carturo15]

US median home price May 2009: $169,000
Cdn median home price May 2009 $319,000 (US$290,000)
Please tell me how this is sustainable especially when you consider that average incomes are actually higher in the US...

The implications of this situation are quite serious which begs a simple question.

Which nations's consumers do you think will have the discretionary income to actively drive an economy in the next twenty years?

There are hundreds of factors that make USA and Canada housing markets incomparables, it's like compare apples with bananas.

Just to give you an idea, most of the Canada's population is concentrated in only 4 big cities (Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary and Montreal), these 4 cities drive that Canadian median home price and not only home prices, they drive the economy. If you want to compare Canada with USA (which is almost impossible), you should take a sample of the 4 main US cities that drive the US economy, let's say New York, Chicago, L.A, and another one in Texas, I'm pretty sure that you will find that the average home price in these 4 big cities is much more than the $169.000. I don't have the statistics but it should be more than $350k, that's for sure

 

[cdr108]

There are hundreds of factors that make USA and Canada housing markets incomparables, it's like compare apples with bananas.

Just to give you an idea, most of the Canada's population is concentrated in only 4 big cities (Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary and Montreal), these 4 cities drive that Canadian median home price and not only home prices, they drive the economy. If you want to compare Canada with USA (which is almost impossible), you should take a sample of the 4 main US cities that drive the US economy, let's say New York, Chicago, L.A, and another one in Texas, I'm pretty sure that you will find that the average home price in these 4 big cities is much more than the $169.000. I don't have the statistics but it should be more than $350k, that's for sure

I'm not sure that analogy makes much sense.
Wouldn't you say those same US cities affect the US median house price as much as 4 big CDN cities would affect the CDN median price?

If anything, several major US states that drive their economy would greatly affect the median price also like FL, NY, CA, NV.

 

[lead82]

the analogy makes perfect sense. The Us is less urbanized than Canada is. Canada has a handful of big cities that make up about 70% of the population.

 

[lead82]

in the us, many smaller towns and cities have far cheaper real estate prices diluting down the average.

 

[northstar]

US median home price May 2009: $169,000
Cdn median home price May 2009 $319,000 (US$290,000)
Please tell me how this is sustainable especially when you consider that average incomes are actually higher in the US...

In addition to the previous poster's comments about comparing prices in the 4 largest cities, here's more to justify price differentials:

"Prices have fallen so far that the average U.S. home is now undervalued by 12.2%, according to a new report from IHS Global Insight..."

Some US cities' home prices are undervalued by more than 40%.
You can read the full article here: http://money.cnn.com/2009/06/04/rea...lity_soaring/index.htm?postversion=2009060412

Toronto prices have gone up - but they have avoided the drastic swings one sees in the US (thanks in part to our banking system).
The lesson is NOT to speculate on house prices.
Speculating on declining house prices is not much different from speculating on increasing house prices.

 

[Eug]

Shopping for bargains in the luxury aisle

The ebullient news comes from ReMax Ontario-Atlantic Canada, which says that 273 houses sold above the $1-million mark in May, compared with 258 in the same month last year when the market was starting to slump.

This year’s tally broke the previous record, set in May of 2007, of 266 sales.

Sometimes one or two exceptionally lucrative deals can skew the numbers by inflating the overall value of sales, but in this case it’s the number of sales that has established a record.

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In Toronto, it’s not difficult to spend $1-million on a house and so for many move-up buyers that kind of money isn’t a stretch. But even at much loftier levels, where properties have asking prices of $3-million, $4-million and up, there’s action again.

A house at 89 Bin-Scarth Rd., which had an asking price of $6.95-million in early 2008, sold this spring after a couple of steep cuts in the list price.

ReMax points to broker Barry Cohen, who sold an 18,000-square-foot house listed for more than $13-million, with waterfall pool, fountains, hot tub and a tennis court set in two acres in Toronto’s Bridle Path neighbourhood. That deal marks the first valued above $10-million in more than a year, the company says.

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I don't know if that $10 million house sold in May, but if it did, that would have really skewed the numbers.

 

[Therion]

Some US cities' home prices are undervalued by more than 40%.

Most stats I've read seem to indicate that house prices are just returning to the long-term average. Definitely not under-priced, except by bubble standards.

Edit: the article seems to indicate that there's a wide disparity in over/under-valued housing in different cities. There's probably a reason why some cities are undervalued (ie. they are shitholes). But why is Atlantic City the most overvalued place in the U.S? People actually want to live there?

 

[cdr108]

"Prices have fallen so far that the average U.S. home is now undervalued by 12.2%, according to a new report from IHS Global Insight..."

Some US cities' home prices are undervalued by more than 40%.
You can read the full article here: http://money.cnn.com/2009/06/04/rea...lity_soaring/index.htm?postversion=2009060412

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices would indicate otherwise:

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/po...s_csmahp/0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,1,0,0,0,0,0.html

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/CSHomePrice_History_052619.xls

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/SA_CSHomePrice_History_052619.xls

 

[Eug]

GTA Resale Housing Sales Up 19 Per Cent in the First Half of June

Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 5,185 transactions in the first half of June – an increase of 19 per cent compared to the same period last year.

The average price for MLS® sales was $407,716, up by two per cent compared to last year. "Heightened interest in ownership housing this spring has solidified resale home prices," according to Jason Mercer, TREB's Senior Manager of Market Analysis. “The number of home buyers has been high relative to the number of listings, pushing the average price above last year's level.”

 

[TrickyRicky]

Point: "Average home price highest in Canadian History"

Counter point: Borrowing money is cheaper and easier and more rampant then at any point in Canadian History

Analysis: High prices and cheap borrowing puts people in positions of weakness. Low prices and high borrowing costs puts people in positions of strength.

 

[Eug]

Condo resales are on a roll

The new-condo market may be just starting to warm up again but the resale market is hot, according to May statistics from the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB). In fact, condo resales, at 2,081 units in May, were up about 2 per cent from the same month a year earlier.

Condo resales are again moving in lockstep with single family homes and townhouses.

In May, total Multiple Listings Service (MLS) condo sales were 4,561 units in the Greater Toronto Area, compared with 4,422 in May last year – a 2 per cent increase.

The average selling price for all MLS sales (including both houses and condos) was $399,811, down a touch from $400,817 last year.