Towered
Superstar
I love it when others here make even more cynical posts than myself!
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- Thread starter Amare
- Start date
EnviroTO
Senior Member
This shows how incompetent the city is. If they were doing a real budget every year would be a similar spend on maintaining infrastructure. Instead they shift things around so the budget looks good. Lowest spend in 2024, check, push really expensive things beyond 5 year plan, check. Budget complete.
Note that Eglinton Connects LRT study and public sessions occurred before the LRT was even under construction, but despite the LRT being late delivery, the city is nowhere near ready to pay for their part. The local councillors shame Metrolinx for their ineptitude... but have done nothing for the part the city owns.
Northern Light
Superstar
I'll be the first to the 'The City' under the bus for any number of things, I do that here regularly, as you know.
But you're misreading the above, it doesn't show what you think.
Remember that chart is not Transportation's Capital Budget, its the 'unmet needs' portion.
Which means projects for which funding has not been found.
So you understand, anything in the current year budget will be funded, LOL; most of next year (which was 2024) will also be funded, because projects move forward in-year when others are delayed, so the priority is to allocate funds to stuff that's in the immediate offing.
After that, projects which are part of 'routine' funds say 'x' per year for sidewalk reconstruction are assumed to be funded through the City's property taxes and will show up as funded every year in the 10 year plan.
Then projects that start this year or next, but require to be funded to completion will show funding for each year of that project.
But major projects which have not started, and will not start this year or next, will tend to be partially or fully unfunded.
The revenues/debt to support them haven't yet been identified, or received.
This is the funded project budget:
Note, 2023 is really low because former Mayor Tory ordered City staff to balance the budget by deferring capital projects. The initial number was much higher.
But here you see there is more money being spent in 2024 than in any of 2025, 2026 or 2027 (in part to catch up for all the deferred work from 2023) .
There would be more spending if funds could be found for those 'unmet needs'
DSCToronto
Superstar
Unfortunately, there is no reason to think that during the budget process for 2024, most of the 'promised' 2024 funding will not be deferred to 2025. Obviously, this cannot continue for ever and sooner or later a Mayor with some balls will need to raise taxes. Ironic that this person may be our first female Mayor for many years! :->
EnviroTO
Senior Member
I will admit that it doesn't give the whole picture to only be looking at the "unmet". However, even when you add both together, the budget met and unmet, does it not tell you that somehow miraculously this year is the cheapest year of all the years to come and that 2028, the year beyond the five year plan will be the most expensive year?
Northern Light
Superstar
Again, in 2023 the Mayor ordered the City to cut the capital budget (by about 1/2) to balance the budget. So that certainly isn't a good comparison year.
But if you're looking at 2024, sure that's about 1B combined, where 2028 reads as just over 1.3B.
Lets remember though, that late year projects also include projected inflation in them.
Construction Inflation in Toronto was running at 13% annually as at the Q2 of this year:
One hopes that will cool some, but I don't think 30% inflation over 5 years is that much of a stretch these days, that would be 6% per year on a straight-line basis, and 13% is pretty much out the door for this year.
DSCToronto
Superstar
Though it is not totally comparable, our 1982 condo building was just evaluated for insurance purposes. The (TOTAL) "replacement cost" increased by 26% between late 2020 and last month based on construction cost estimates.Again, in 2023 the Mayor ordered the City to cut the capital budget (by about 1/2) to balance the budget. So that certainly isn't a good comparison year.
But if you're looking at 2024, sure that's about 1B combined, where 2028 reads as just over 1.3B.
Lets remember though, that late year projects also include projected inflation in them.
Construction Inflation in Toronto was running at 13% annually as at the Q2 of this year:
One hopes that will cool some, but I don't think 30% inflation over 5 years is that much of a stretch these days, that would be 6% per year on a straight-line basis, and 13% is pretty much out the door for this year.
EnviroTO
Senior Member
I would like to be wrong on this, but I expect that if we revisit the budget next year at the same time, 2024 will be the cheapest year of all the years to come and that some things which were going to start in 2027-2028 will be moved to start in 2028-2029. Eglinton Crosstown LRT as an example... after the report was complete in 2014 was the plan to build Eglinton Connects in 2027?? On John Street / Entertainment District... report completed 2016, was the funding always meant to be around now?? For both they seem to also come with a "cheapening initiative" where the design from 2014 or 2016 is "being refined".
Northern Light
Superstar
No.
The work was supposed to correspond to Mx finishing up their work which would have differing dates depending on the section, but I think, originally would have been something like 2021-2023.
Mx delays did push the work back a year or two; but after that it was deferred for lack of funds/other priorities.
pmacpherson68
New Member
so if I read this correctly, the TOTAL COST of eglinton connects is 5.5M? First of all, there's no way that all of this can be done for 5.5M! - but putting that aside, it still looks like it will still be split out over 10 years... which means, 10 more years of construction along Eglinton after LRT is completed. Still ridiculous