[GraphicMatt]

Smitherman needs to actually commit to progressive policies before the left can embrace him. He can still rebuke Miller policies but he needs to show he's got sensible positions.

Also: I didn't realize it when I read SimonP's numbers above, but it's very important that people realize that 51% of poll respondents were Undecided. I can't imagine many Undecideds will break for Ford.

 

[Coltaine79]

Dude, he's gay. How can he NOT be progressive?

 

[SimonP]

I agree the undecided numbers are huge, and are unlikely to break for Ford. They are most likely to go to candidates like Rossi and Pantalone that don't have as high name recognition.

The one caveat is that undecided often translates to "I don't care or know anything about municipal politics and won't vote anyway." Less than half the electorate will cast a vote come October, and when polled these folk will usually land in the undecided column.

 

[PinkLucy]

Less than half the electorate will cast a vote come October

... and be the ones who complain the loudest

 

[nfitz]

Dude, he's gay. How can he NOT be progressive?

John Baird

 

[Darwinkgo]

I agree the undecided numbers are huge, and are unlikely to break for Ford. They are most likely to go to candidates like Rossi and Pantalone that don't have as high name recognition.

The one caveat is that undecided often translates to "I don't care or know anything about municipal politics and won't vote anyway." Less than half the electorate will cast a vote come October, and when polled these folk will usually land in the undecided column.

Polls report numbers for likely voters only, so the undecided is still a likely voter. Municipal polling however usually over predicts turnout by 50% as most provincial/federal voters will predict they will vote in civic elections, however 1/3 will not.

 

[SimonP]

Smitherman doesn't much like progressives and progressives don't much like Smitherman. Smitherman has always been a "Bay Street Liberal" and those are the people who are funding his mayoral campaign. Remember that it was a bunch of the Lastman/Jakobek team that originally persuaded Smitherman to run for mayor. Back when it looked like both Tory and Smitherman were going to run, Smitherman was prepping a campaign that would have run to the right of Tory with guys like Bangs and Watt at the helm.

While there are still undecided voters on the left, the workers, organizations, and money have moved solidly behind Pantalone in recent weeks. Labour, Miller, and the NDP base dislike Smitherman with a passion. A centre left Liberal like Murray or Kennedy could have captured that support, but they are undivided in preferring Pantalone to Smitherman.

 

[Coltaine79]

John Baird

How embarrassing. I guess I stand corrected.

 

[SimonP]

Polls report numbers for likely voters only, so the undecided is still a likely voter. Municipal polling however usually over predicts turnout by 50% as most provincial/federal voters will predict they will vote in civic elections, however 1/3 will not.

This is true in the United States, but inl Canada it is very rare to see a likely voter screen. Our pollsters almost always take a sample of the entire population. If a poll does only include likely voters, it will always be declared as such. In this case the Star reported it as a poll of "413 Torontonians."

 

[TOareaFan]

I think Smitherman's best bet is to go left but still play up the tough-on-unions thing.

What would his campaign slogan be for that sort of campaign? "I am not a moron I am an Oxymoron" ? Just kidding of course but maybe you could flesh out how a successful left leaning campaign can include a "tough on unions" message?

That just seems like a recipe for losing both sides of the street (IMHO).

 

[TonyV]

Originally I thought John Tory did Toronto a service by staying out of the race. With these latest numbers, however, I wish we had Tory to kick around, instead of ... Ford !?!?!?

On a more serious note, I am in agreement with those of you who feel that Ford's numbers will tank. Give the guy enough rope and he'll quickly hang himself.

It's still early, be prepared for more crazy stuff before the gloves come off and things start to get serious.

 

[nfitz]

On a more serious note, I am in agreement with those of you who feel that Ford's numbers will tank. Give the guy enough rope and he'll quickly hang himself.

True ... it does seem hard to imagine that Ford won't hang himself at some point during the campaign. We can only hope that it isn't some kind of murder-suicide though!

 

[GraphicMatt]

What would his campaign slogan be for that sort of campaign? "I am not a moron I am an Oxymoron" ? Just kidding of course but maybe you could flesh out how a successful left leaning campaign can include a "tough on unions" message?

That just seems like a recipe for losing both sides of the street (IMHO).

Unions are deeply unpopular in the city at this point, and no one is going to win without some get-tough rhetoric. Unwavering support for unions (particularly public sector unions, which are off in their own little world these days) is, I think, a throwback to a kind of 1960s liberalism.

 

[Coltaine79]

Unions are deeply unpopular in the city at this point, and no one is going to win without some get-tough rhetoric. Unwavering support for unions (particularly public sector unions, which are off in their own little world these days) is, I think, a throwback to a kind of 1960s liberalism.

yup very true. even my Dipper friends tend to not be pro-union anymore. IMO it makes more sense to adopt "left" positions without the additional unnecessary labour union trappings.

 

[GraphicMatt]

Support for labour unions made sense (and still makes sense) when they're doing battle with profit-hungry corporations that want to minimize labour costs while at the same time increasing their profits.

Public sector unions upset the formula by dealing with an employer (a government) that is not generally profit-minded, already has several ingrained protections against worker abuse and whose ability to pay higher wages is constrained by tax revenues.