The first poll of the full slate of candidates has been
published by the Star:
*Smitherman - 34% (down 10% since Jan 11)
*Ford - 27%
*Pantalone - 14% (up 9%)
*Rossi - 13% (down 2%)
*Thomson - 7%
*Mammolitti - 3% (down 1%)
*Other 2%
The big news is Ford's solid 27% finish in the first poll he's been included in. Polls had shown a large section on the right that was unsatisfied with the earlier crop of candidates, so this isn't a complete surprise. Can Ford keep moving up to a number that will elect him mayor? My guess/desperate hope is no. Ford has strong name recognition already, so there aren't many staunch conservatives who don't already support him. At some point the media will also have to start pointing out his strong dose of crazy. This should hopefully prevent his support from growing to a level that will allow him to win.
The other big move up was Pantalone. Not too surprisingly he inherited most of Adam's supporters. As the lone candidate on the left in a generally centre-left city he has a lot of room to move upwards. With Miller and the NDP machines behind him he will be well funded and have one of the best ground operations.
The candidate Ford took the most votes from is Smitherman, whose front runner status has always been based more on name recognition. Smitherman is in a very problematic spot. His approach so far on issues like bike lanes and transit city is to not say much of anything. This leaves him out of the media and causes those who care either way about these issues to look elsewhere. The problem is that with strong challengers to both right and left Smitherman will lose a chunk of support with any decision he makes. For instance, if Smitherman comes out in favour of a bike lane on Jarvis he will alienate supporters in Rosedale/Moore Park and lose some of the "war on cars" vote to Ford. If Smitherman comes out against Jarvis bike lanes he will lose some downtown progressives to Pantalone.
Looking at those numbers, my prediction is that the final election will come down to a right/left contest between Ford and Pantalone. The triangulation that Smitherman will have to pull off to win is almost impossible.