[kettal]

http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/art...itherman-but-voters-still-want-tory-poll?bn=1

Tory would beat them all.

 

[GenerationW]

Sarah Thomson's showing is the biggest surprise for me. It'll be interesting to see if those numbers can show any more growth by Labour Day.

 

[MetroMan]

Just as expected, Smitherman is the new Barbara Hall. Widely expected to win almost a year before the election only to see his buzz fizzle from being in the spotlight for so long with nothing to show for it. I'm putting my bets on Thomson being the Miller of 2010. Pantalone has room to grow but he'll always be looked at as the status quo. John Laschinger has a lot of work to do but so far he's taking the best path to victory by stockpiling cash and policy announcements for the months closer to the election.

 

[Darwinkgo]

In the USA there is documented racial bias in the USA where whites will over indicate preference for black candidates in polls which doesn't result in similar numbers in the ballot box. The same thing causes over reports of green votes here in Canada, where their polls outpace their votes 2 - 1.

With this quote:

among decided male respondents is only 8 per cent, while 26 per cent of decided women would vote for her

it tells me that this result is likely the big difference between the Forum poll and the much more indepth poll and larger sample by nanos. It is likely the big showing could be due to not rotating the candidate prompt in the poll and bad scripting (especially when Forum has not released its poll results on their website)

 

[nfitz]

I'm very familiar with Nanos - their federal polling has been top-notch when compared to the final results. I'm not familiar however with "Forum Research" - nor can I see any experience in political polling on their website!

A 44% undecided rate is huge ... note that this poll seems to report the result as a % of decided voters - didn't the other one do it as a % of total voters?

 

[SimonP]

Some fascinating issue numbers further down that poll:

Selling Toronto Hydro
20.2% support
57.7% oppose

More Bike Lanes
50.8% support
29.1% oppose

Fewer councillors
56.9% support
17.9% oppose

Province of Toronto
17.1% support
65.4% oppose

Road tolls
25.7% support
54.2% oppose

More subways
73.0% support
10.1% oppose

More LRT
68.6% support
12.5% oppose

Online voting
48.7% support
31.6% oppose

 

[MetroMan]

^ I'm not convinced of the results of that poll because it doesn't appear to put things in context.

More subways? Toronto: Yes.
Road tolls? Toronto: No!

If that question were "Road tolls to build more subways", I think those numbers would level off.

More LRT? More Subways? Of course people are going to say yes to both but the real issue is which one does Toronto prefer and how are they prepared to pay for it.

 

[MetroMan]

One factor that is still missing from all of this is that while Ford is campaigning on eliminating waste at City Hall, the election issue on most voters' minds is transit, an area where Ford hasn't even announced his policy on. He's only said that "people want subways" but which lines he plans to expand and how he's going to get those subways in place are details that are noticeably absent.

That question is going to inevitably come up in the debates which is where most people will make up their minds and if Ford doesn't have a convincing policy on this subject, he's not going to go much beyond the sub-20% support that he has now.

 

[urbandreamer]

Ford is smart--keep your mouth shut on transit etc until all the other fools have spilled their unrealistic plans, then come in with one that looks great by comparison.

 

[GenerationW]

Ford is smart--keep your mouth shut on transit etc until all the other fools have spilled their unrealistic plans, then come in with one that looks great by comparison.

Assuming he comes in with one at all!

 

[nfitz]

One factor that is still missing from all of this is that while Ford is campaigning on eliminating waste at City Hall, the election issue on most voters' minds is transit, an area where Ford hasn't even announced his policy on. He's only said that "people want subways" but which lines he plans to expand and how he's going to get those subways in place are details that are noticeably absent.

He's made a lot of comments about TTC service over the years. Wanting to cut bus service, TTC service, etc.

The only reason Ford pushes subways, is that they would get the buses and streetcars out of the way of this car. Perhaps if he wasn't too big to fit in a bus seat, he might see things differently.

 

[urbandreamer]

Public transit sucks. Seriously, if I ever make the big bucks, I'm buying up all the cars I've always wanted to own and buying a huge garage and house to put them in...out in the country! The only subway I can stand is the Montreal Metro, because the girls there know how to dress and are so damned sexy to look at.

 

[GenerationW]

if I ever make the big bucks, I'm buying up all the cars I've always wanted to own and buying a huge garage and house to put them in...out in the country!

Please, one Jay Leno is more than enough!

 

[nfitz]

... I'm buying up all the cars I've always wanted to own and buying a huge garage and house to put them in...out in the country! The only subway I can stand is the Montreal Metro, because the girls there know how to dress and are so damned sexy to look at.

So your position is that you are a misogynistic hick? Or is there some irony here that is missing me?

 

[adma]

That question is going to inevitably come up in the debates which is where most people will make up their minds and if Ford doesn't have a convincing policy on this subject, he's not going to go much beyond the sub-20% support that he has now.

Or rather, sub-30%, if you factor away the undecided and factor in those other second-place-to-Smitherman polls...