Tory or Smitherman to take on Miller
It's all but a done deal: George Smitherman or John Tory will run for the city's top job, writes Royson James
ROYSON JAMES
Deputy premier George Smitherman is all but ready to announce he will run for mayor of Toronto, sources close to the politician say.
"It's a lock, he's running," one source confirmed this week.
Another Smitherman operative, ready to build a campaign team, says "a rainbow of political stripes" is urging Smitherman to take on the flagging Mayor David Miller in next year's elections.
"The voices he's hearing are from serious political types," the source said. "A serious politician is not able to disregard these voices. You have to give it a strong, hard look. It's his decision to make and he's an astute politician."
Smitherman, 45, is clearly warming to the idea after spending most of the summer denying his interest in the mayor's job.
After refusing to speak on the record about the growing buzz, Smitherman told the Star he will announce his intentions "at the right time."
The municipal election is not until November 2010. But serious candidates usually declare officially on or near Jan. 1, the day they can start raising funds.
Backers say Smitherman needs to announce soon to get a jump on John Tory, another high-profile name under mayoral watch. Tory lost a close race to Miller in 2003 and was provincial Conservative leader from 2004 until earlier this year.
But both men have indicated they are in close contact and have a deal that only one will run against Miller.
Another source says both sides understand that "the winning formula requires we don't have a crowded field."
"If someone is going to challenge (Miller), it has to be one person," Tory told the Star. "This will give the voter a clearer choice. It's a far more preferable setting of the table for the voters."
Tory said Smitherman has not yet decided whether he is running, and neither has he. "I haven't heard anyone say they're running. I don't want to put a time or date on it."
What is clear is that Miller's performance during the 39-day municipal strike has emboldened challengers and created a feeding frenzy among the political class. Backers for both Tory and Smitherman report huge interest in finding an alternative to Miller. Often, would-be supporters cross political lines to queue up behind Liberal Smitherman and Conservative Tory.
Jaime Watt, a Mike Harris Conservative and party strategist, said yesterday he is busy handling public relations for Michael Bryant, the ex-deputy premier involved in the deadly confrontation with a cyclist on Bloor St. this week. But Watt is juiced about a possible Smitherman run.
"I bet he'd be a formidable candidate. I'm very interested in him running. He'd be a fantastic candidate," Watt said.
Smitherman could challenge Miller for votes in the downtown area, as he represents the Toronto Centre riding in the provincial Legislature.
He held the troublesome health portfolio for several years, and is now minister of energy and infrastructure and deputy premier in Dalton McGuinty's government.
Considered a bit of a bulldog with a tenacious spirit and street smarts, Smitherman would also run as an ordinary guy who knows how to get his nails dirty.
Just this week, announcing provincial funding for the film industry, he waxed on about being the "son of a truck driver from Etobicoke."
During this year's strike by city workers, Smitherman went about picking up trash with citizens and other politicians several times. He joked that he knew how to use a broom – a dig at Miller, who ran his first election with the broom as a symbol for sweeping City Hall clean of scandals.
Tory joined Smitherman on one of the garbage strike cleanups. At the time, both Smitherman and Tory denied their garbage-picking forays had anything to do with a potential mayoral bid.
But backers from both camps say the potential candidates are now more clearly enamoured with the idea of running. Tory still has to convince his wife and is watching the polls and level of support to gauge his chances. Smitherman, who would potentially be the city's first gay mayor, is obviously flattered by the support at street level as he moves around town.
Smitherman has knowledge of the workings of City Hall. He was chief of staff in Barbara Hall's office when she was mayor of Toronto, prior to amalgamation. In 1997 Smitherman was Hall's campaign manager when she took on Mel Lastman for megacity mayor.
His people boast that Hall started that race 30 points behind Mel and closed to within single digits on election day.
As many as four right-leaning city councillors are considering a run for mayor but the general consensus is that none has the name recognition, fundraising ability, public profile or heft to challenge Miller. If either Smitherman or Tory runs, those councillors are likely to abort what would be a kamikaze mission.
As such, one Smitherman source this week tried to tamp down expectations and suggest it might be too early to announce a run for mayor.
"It's not even the start of the political playoffs yet," much yet championship time, he said.
Tory said it is prudent for a mayoral challenger to hold off and assess if the current drop in Miller's popularity sustains itself beyond a few weeks after the unpopular strike.