Ontario to announce new testing strategy to target asymptomatic people in high-risk groups
Ontario is creating a new strategy to test for COVID-19 in asymptomatic people in high-risk groups, including first responders, taxi drivers, workers in meat-packing and auto plants, and school-aged children, in order to figure out where the virus is spreading and how to get it under control.
The province, facing growing criticism for its pandemic response as the number of new cases climbs daily, is set to announce the new testing strategy this week. It’s a significant move that will see Ontario shift part of its testing resources into a detective-like mode, searching for asymptomatic COVID-19 carriers in groups that have a higher likelihood than the general population of transmitting the illness to others.
Contrary to infectious disease experts, some say the move to let anyone undergo a test is too unfocused and could make it harder for the province to focus on finding the hot-spots of disease spread in the community
www.theglobeandmail.com
I take no issue whatever with testing high-risk groups.
But in terms of assessing where Covid is in the community and where we are on the proverbial curve its not that useful, especially in isolation.
What we need is randomized tests (which can include a listing of a person's profession, and postal code); and serology tests (also random).
These would reveal a much clearer picture.
We again need to remember, every modelling exercise assumes Covid will be pervasive at about 12 months, likely not much less than 50% of the population, and potentially into the herd immunity range of 70%.
The question isn't really about stopping the spread of Covid (pre-vaccine); its about managing it; and its impact on hospitals and on vulnerable populations.
To do that, you need to have an idea where on that 12-month curve each area finds itself.
You need to contrast that with demographics, and the situation in local hospitals.
Where is North Bay on that chart? Are its local seniors homes in outbreak? What capacity is in place at the local hospital? What's the rate of infection/exposure among school-aged children (most will not get sick, but may act as vector).
This can inform which kids can see grandma and grandpa; who can visit their folks in the Long Term Care home; and who can go to work at the Meat Packing Plant.
But we need the serology (antibody test), not just the active virus test!
www.cp24.com
www.bbc.com
