[W. K. Lis]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1351231429770883075

City confirms Nick Mantas is now officially the councillor for Ward 22 Scarborough-Agincourt. Of 66,042 eligible voters, 12,102 turned out via combo of in-person voting, early voting and (for the first time ever) mail-in voting. 18% turnout.

The lowest turnout polling location was the Tendercare Living Centre at 1020 McNicoll Ave, where there were 133 registered voters but none cast a ballot. 0% turnout. That’s strange.

 

[zang]

I'm kinda unclear here. What kind of projections would have us going from about 5,400 deaths to date to 190,000+ covid deaths in a single year in Ontario alone?!? Not sure if that's what you mean or something else.

For what seems like the third time here, If we allow this virus to run rampant amongst the general population, it will spread until we hit herd immunity. 60% is on the low estimate of what's required. Some have said as much as 85%. Conservatively, it could take a year to get to that point. When we hit 60% of the population having had this disease, that's about 9,000,000 Ontarians. If the death rate remains at only 2.2%, that's over 190,000 Ontarians. By the time the spread is at its peak, it'll be nigh-impossible to keep it out of LTC homes, even with the best of resources.

From the data you listed the numbers aren't nothing, but they still don't represent the vast majority of people who have been infected and survived the virus. Also why not allow more time to pass and come back in 6-12 months and see where we stand and whether people are fully/largely recovered from their post-covid ailments or they're still suffering just as badly? This isn't the first virus/disease/other medical issue that has taken people a long time to recover from.

Stop trying to justify your argument with binaries. This virus is more than just deaths. Heart Failure is not something that just "gets better". You don't just stop needing kidney dialysis. These things are irreversible and are happening to even healthy, young, covid patients.

This is quite literally a public health emergency, not a "rare death" emergency. This is about overall public health in both the short and long term. 10% of the working-age population who suddenly have some degree of organ damage is a major problem to avoid.

Your argument against lockdowns and restrictions always seems to come down to "it's not so bad" and it's really shows your ignorance.

Japan 'reacted faster' because the virus originated from their next door neighbor. I'm sure Canada would've taken quicker measures as well had the virus originated from the US.

Epidemiology doesn't work that way. Once a virus is in a country, national proximity makes little difference. We had our first case of Covid a mere week after they did. Both our case and Japan's were identified within days. Both countries responded at much different rates. Canada, despite its history with SARS, took more of a wait-and-see posture, assuming spread was not already in the general public and relying almost entirely on contact tracing. Japan on the other hand, informed the public to be vigilant and take precautions and started doing far more, far earlier.

As well what can you do when back in February our PM and many other politicians were more concerned about fighting supposed racism and descrimination against Chinese Canadians than they were of preparing for the virus and stopping people from China and elsewhere from coming into Canada?

YOU especially are not one to speak to racism:



It's also funny that you acknowledge a half-assed early response yet ignore that later when comparing our situation versus Japan's.

Also I'm mostly talking about the months after many nations started implementing shutdowns and other harsh measures in their countries to stop the spread while Japan largely resisted doing so until absolutely necessary and then reopened as quick as they could for those areas.

No, you said, and I quote:

"Again what does Japanese culture have anything to do with their government not telling their population to social distance and not gather in large crowds like they're still doing now even with declaring a state of emergency in parts of their nation?"

You lie to prop up your own argument. That's a troll.

So one little image is suppose to prove that Japan has taken very strong measures anywhere close to what's been taken in many western countries to try and stop the spread and for the same amount of time?

Their state of emergency during the 1st wave happened early April, expanded to cover the entire nation like a week later and then in early May most of Japan excluding a few hotspots were already reopening and by the end of May the country was operating with relatively few restrictions in place. They understood that living with the virus made more sense that trying to stop the spread completely which is near impossible unless you take and often maintain strict if not extreme measures.

Japan started off with less cases and were able to get things under control much faster than we were. That is why they were able to go with few restrictions. Did you not notice as our numbers went down restrictions loosened? I've noticed a pattern in your inability to pickup details and pertinent information, so I'm guessing no.

I'm not saying that the Japanese people don't care about the virus, I'm saying that they may care, but they're certainly not taking any of the strict measures that Canadians and many other western countries are in trying to slow/stop the spread and they haven't been doing so for many months now. After their 1st wave state of emergency was lifted, they largely went back to normal life. Namely crowds weren't told to disperse and people weren't constantly told by authorities and other people that social distancing was necessary.

Yes they were. FFS, they even had robots doing it: https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/11/14/national/robot-masks-social-distance-osaka/

That's why we have tons of videos on youtube showing people living relatively normally compared to much of the rest of the world. If it weren't for the majority of people wearing masks and a ton of partitions in businesses, you wouldn't even know a pandemic was going on there right now.

If you were to see a video mid-August of downtown Toronto, it would've looked about the same. Busy streets, people eating in restaurants and drinking in bars. Japan's per-capita caseload now is about equivalent to what ours was then. Except ours started rising slowly from the beginning of August and we pretty much ignored it until November.

There aren't cops and other authorities constantly breaking up all those crowds or telling their people that they're violating social distancing rules and there aren't politicians and medical experts constantly admonishing their population for not staying apart.

You act like there are police roaming the streets in hordes here telling people to stay apart. There aren't.

Cops didn't bother to break up any anti-masker crowd until this past weekend. For more than half a year, huge groups have been meeting every Saturday, with nobody breaking them up. There's been little-to-no enforcement of the rules placed upon businesses. Restaurants regularly opened up completely illegal patios in my neighbourhood and cops did nothing. And no, cops aren't "constantly telling people they're violating social distancing rules."

Stop exaggerating to make your argument. What you claim is happening here really isn't.

As for the politicians and medical experts admonishing people, they're doing that in Japan too:

Under Tokyo's state of emergency, some drink on even after authorities call time

While compliance has been high, more people appear to be ignoring the state of emergency this time than one last year.

www.japantimes.co.jp

"For Yuuki Hamazono, it was a relief to find bars and restaurants in Tokyo flouting the Japanese government’s request to close by 8 p.m."

The 30-year-old financial trader was one of many people out in the Shimbashi nightlife district during the first weekend of an expanded state of emergency, with the government pleading for residents to stay home to contain the coronavirus.
[…]
Unlike in many other countries with mandatory lockdowns, Japanese authorities legally can only urge people to stay at home and businesses to close.
[…]
Some criticize what they call a half-hearted government response. Suga has been accused of being slow to act out of fear of damaging the economy. His support has plunged.
[…]
The government is considering an amendment to give authorities more power to enforce a lockdown, the minister in charge of administrative and regulatory reform, Taro Kono, said Thursday.

You keep telling me that Japanese people are worried about the virus and maybe they are, but its certainly not enough to stop many if not most of them from going out and living their lives as close to normal as they can. I'll believe the guy who's live streaming IN JAPAN almost daily as to how the Japanese are feeling about the virus and how they're living with it compared to someone who's speculating from a couple thousand miles away in another country.

*SMH*

 

[SunriseChampion]

New cases down substantially this morning, at under 2600.

Hospital/ICU basically flat, slight uptick in Vents.

Testing was lower yesterday (just over 40k)

As were vaccinations, at under 10k

https://www.ontario.ca/page/how-ontario-is-responding-covid-19#section-0

Yes, but what's the test positivity rate? A very important number as case number is misleading without this information.

I can't find it on their website. Am I blind or dumb? Or both?

 

[marcus_a_j]

Yes, but what's the test positivity rate? A very important number as case number is misleading without this information.

I can't find it on their website. Am I blind or dumb? Or both?

2,578 cases out of 40,301 tests equals 6.4% positivity rate (got to do the math yourself as it's not on the webpage). 18,481 additional tests are under investigation (TBD).

 

[Northern Light]

Lets acknowledge that published IFR rates vary widely.

There are real inconsistencies around methodology of determining both prevalence of Covid and correct attribution at death. One can reasonably concede that numbers may be higher and lower than what has been published to date.

As per the study linked below, IFRs thus far show: (among others)

The UK came in at 0.9%

While Geneva, Switzerland also showed 0.5%.

Iceland showed 0.3%

The U.S. state of Indiana showed 0.26%

https://sfamjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1462-2920.15377

If one removed high outliers (and low) such as China (which comes in below 0.2%)

It would seem mostly likely given the current data that the IFR are btw 0.3%-0.5%.

For the record, this is considerably higher than routine influenza; but well below CFR rates.

The numbers, as one would expect also vary widely by population demographic, particularly age.

 

[SunriseChampion]

2,578 cases out of 40,301 tests equals 6.4% positivity rate (got to do the math yourself as it's not on the webpage). 18,481 additional tests are under investigation (TBD).

Yeah, so with 18k pending, it's defo not 6.4%; it's unknown for today.

 

[SunriseChampion]

https://sfamjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1462-2920.15377

Careful. That journal article is racist as it refers to the "Spanish Flu" H1N1 pandemic of the early 20th century. Which didn't originate in Spain.
Or is it only racist to call SARS-CoV-2 the "China Flu" because they're not Caucasian?

Asking for a friend who finds the double standards confusing and offensive to their sense of logic and propriety.


Oh, interesting that the actual infection fatality rate is even less than the already low case fatality rate. Didn't know about the infection/case difference.

 

[Northern Light]

This study linked below is interesting for its inclusion of Ontario-specific data, broken down by age

Assessing the age specificity of infection fatality rates for COVID-19: systematic review, meta-analysis, and public policy implications - European Journal of Epidemiology

Determine age-specific infection fatality rates for COVID-19 to inform public health policies and communications that help protect vulnerable age groups. Studies of COVID-19 prevalence were collected by conducting an online search of published articles, preprints, and government reports that...

link.springer.com

In a +60 cohort with a median age of 72; the Ontario IFR is estimated at 4.7%

At age 35-54 (median 40) you get an IFR of 0.15%

For under 19s (median age 10) the IFR is reported as 0.004%

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

Careful. That journal article is racist as it refers to the "Spanish Flu" H1N1 pandemic of the early 20th century. Which didn't originate in Spain.
Or is it only racist to call SARS-CoV-2 the "China Flu" because they're not Caucasian?

Asking for a friend who finds the double standards confusing and offensive to their sense of logic and propriety.

Because SARS-CoV-2 isn't influenza in the first place (nevermind that there were Asian flu and Hong Kong flu in the 50s and 60s already)? I harbour no love for the CCP whatsoever - but what you have just said is agitation masquerading in false pretense.

AoD

 

[SunriseChampion]

For under 19s (median age 10) the IFR is reported as 0.004%

My dear brother....I keep telling him, he's tripping because of his kids. Meanwhile my two sisters and their families are trippin that people are trippin.

And I don't have kids and am wondering if those weird palpitations I was having for weeks were after-effects of my suspected mid-March infection with the plague.

Still glad it's not ebola. Imagine ebola's fatality with the transmission of this plague? Damn, that'd be like 28 Days Later but with more intestinal implosion.

 

[SunriseChampion]

Because SARS-CoV-2 isn't influenza in the first place (nevermind that there were Asian flu and Hong Kong flu in the 50s and 60s already)? I harbour no love for the CCP whatsoever - but what you have just said is agitation masquerading in false pretense.

AoD

Ok, not China flu then......China Virus.

Same as calling the Spanish Flu just that.

I don't have a problem with the geographical names, only the double standards.


Why is it ok to refer to the H1N1 pandemic of yester-century as the "Spanish Flu" but people were being called racist for referring to SARS-CoV-2 as the "China Virus" or "Wuhan Virus"?

Like, what's up?

 

[Northern Light]

Yeah, so with 18k pending, it's defo not 6.4%; it's unknown for today.

There are always thousands of tests pending.

As such the key is to compare the trend over time in the numbers.

The daily stat is actually published............but not in the same spot:

Percent positivity​

Percent Positivity: 6.6% (+1.4%)

The total percent positivity means that 6.6% of tests that were performed for COVID-19 were positive for COVID-19 on January 17, 2021. This was a change of +1.4% from the previous day.

From: https://www.publichealthontario.ca/...covid-19-data-surveillance/covid-19-data-tool

That said, I'd be more mindful of the R-Rate as a good base market off which to project:

That's from here: https://www.publichealthontario.ca/...vid-19-epi-trends-incidence-ontario.pdf?la=en

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

Ok, not China flu then......China Virus.

Same as calling the Spanish Flu just that.

I don't have a problem with the geographical names, only the double standards.

You want to confound a historical name that everyone knows about and uses (however inaccurate) that was made ages ago with a geographically-based name that you want to slap on an entirely new virus? And China virus? It would be like someone calling HIV the US immunodeficiency virus on the basis of country of first detection. So if you want to talk about "double standards" - I am afraid there were no standards to start off with.

Like I have said, agitation (and an entirely different matter from CCP's role in the handling of this emergent disease).

AoD

 

[SunriseChampion]

That's a pretty steady trend with the R0. It's not at a bad number though, really.

 

[SunriseChampion]

You want to confound a historical name that everyone knows about and uses (however inaccurate) with a geographic name that you want to slap on an entirely new virus? And China virus? It would be like someone calling HIV the US immunodeficiency virus on the basis of country of first detection.

AoD

I call it (SARS-CoV-2) the plague actually, but thanks for the baseless inference.

It doesn't matter what I want anyway.....what matters is that there is a serious double standard here....which is typical of those propagating it, I know. I was just wondering if we've gotten past that yet.

For the record, I refer to the H1N1 pandemic of the 20th century as "the other plague". Now, that's consistency!