[innsertnamehere]

It is likely, but not a guarantee - and the COVID figures we have suggest we aren't out of the woods yet. When you can't be sure, err on the side of caution.

Also, I don't think we wil l hit Phase III gates by mid-June; particularly 25% of the population having both shots.

AoD

current rates of vaccinations mean we will hit 70% of adults by the end of next week or early the following week, at which point first doses will start to trail off as 70-80% of people are expected to get their shot. Remember that we will be at 60% (The amount apparently required for phase 1) by Saturday right now.

After that it's doing second shots. We are doing about 1.2% of people a day right now - and supply going into June is going to allow for probably closer to 1.5-1.6% a day.

So we should be hitting 20% with second shots around June 15, or at least within a few days of that.

 

[Northern Light]

I had mine on Monday and the only reaction (if I would even call it that) is soreness at the injection site for about 2 days. I was expecting something a little more intense.

AoD

Which one did you get? Mine was Moderna

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

current rates of vaccinations mean we will hit 70% of adults by the end of next week or early the following week, at which point first doses will start to trail off as 70-80% of people are expected to get their shot.

After that it's doing second shots. We are doing about 1.2% of people a day right now - and supply going into June is going to allow for probably closer to 1.5-1.6% a day.

So we should be hitting 20% with second shots around June 15.

Adults isn't the same as overall population. Anyways, considering we are moving to Phase I Saturday, and that there is a 3 weeks gap between phases, we are looking at what, first week of July for Phase III. Only a 2 week difference from what you're suggesting.

AoD

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

Which one did you get? Mine was Moderna

Pfizer.

AoD

 

[W. K. Lis]

Which one did you get? Mine was Moderna

I got Pfizer.

Would have accepted...

From link.

 

[innsertnamehere]

Adults isn't the same as overall population. Anyways, considering we are moving to Phase I Saturday, and that there is a 3 weeks gap between phases, we are looking at what, first week of July for Phase III. Only a 2 week difference from what you're suggesting.

AoD

Adults is the metric used in the plan though.

Phase 1 of the plan is on June 14th, apparently. Not Saturday. So phase 2 on July 5, Phase 3 July 26. At the earliest.

This weekend is just allowing golf courses to open again.

 

[afransen]

Ridiculous.

They do realize that by June 14th we will likely be hitting the vaccine metrics for phase 3 right? Provided they keep up with supply we will be essentially done first doses at that point and well into second doses.

The individual steps are fine - but they need a fourth step, a true end game. And a damn more aggressive schedule.

Daily case counts will bottom out by June 14th most likely hovering at a couple hundred cases a day and basically 0 hospitalizations. Why the hell should we wait another month and a half to have everything reopened, especially since that those re-openings will still be limited in capacity? By the end of July the country will essentially be fully vaccinated.

The whole plan is nuts and throws away half the summer for no reason.

Phase 1 should be starting June 2 with two week gaps between each phase, and a 4th phase at the end of July that is basically a full return to normal.

Optimistic to think we're going to go from where we are now to empty ICUs in 3 weeks.

 

[afransen]

On the subject of vaccination, I got mine today.

Total time elapsed from being 7 minutes early for my appt, through the post procedure wait to see that there's no adverse reaction, and the follow-up appt being scheduled, 37 minutes.

Reasonably efficient, moderately crowded, they had the normal waiting room for a family health team set up with chairs well apart; though, not 2M....

But every chair was occupied pretty much. But the process moved with reasonable dispatch.

So far, *knock wood*, no reaction to speak of.

I also was vaccinated today. Also Pfizer. Similar time. One thing I would note is that there was a bit too much people having to be less than 2m from you for screening, checkin, etc. and strange queue management.

 

[lenaitch]

Ridiculous.

They do realize that by June 14th we will likely be hitting the vaccine metrics for phase 3 right? Provided they keep up with supply we will be essentially done first doses at that point and well into second doses.

The individual steps are fine - but they need a fourth step, a true end game. And a damn more aggressive schedule.

Daily case counts will bottom out by June 14th most likely hovering at a couple hundred cases a day and basically 0 hospitalizations. Why the hell should we wait another month and a half to have everything reopened, especially since that those re-openings will still be limited in capacity? By the end of July the country will essentially be fully vaccinated.

The whole plan is nuts and throws away half the summer for no reason.

Phase 1 should be starting June 2 with two week gaps between each phase, and a 4th phase at the end of July that is basically a full return to normal.

I agree with AoD that they need to see ICU availability increase. Potential ICU patients originate from any number of medical conditions outside of Covid. There is also the issue of critical patients who are being treated outside of an ICU simply because of lack of capacity, as well as those who have been involuntarily re-located.
Dancing around maximum capacity is not good planning, if for no other reason than staffing who have been dealing with this for over a year. I saw an interviewing with a Chief of Something of one of our local hospitals who said that, normally he would deal with 3-4 ICU patients at any given time but has lately been typically dealing with 12.

If nothing else, summer is coming. In spite of the lockdown, serious road collisions are happening along with all of the other medical impacts of summertime.

Maybe if the gangbangers either stopped shooting up the place or learn better aim . . .

 

[innsertnamehere]

Optimistic to think we're going to go from where we are now to empty ICUs in 3 weeks.

I mean more so new hospitalizations. Existing hospital loads are already “set” by cases that have already occurred and with people already there.

what matters is if we open up and it results in increasing new hospitalizations in a significant manner. Which right now it won’t.

 

[MisterF]

But how do our Covid hospitalizations, ICU and death numbers compare?

The US, UK, and Italy have all had 3x our death toll per capita. Germany is higher too. Vaccinations and spread of the virus aren't really correlated until a critical mass is vaccinated, which we're quickly getting to.

 

[Videodrome]

I am not sure who is watching the new Law & Order spinoff called Organized Crime, but the main villain on the show (played by Dylan McDermott) is using the pandemic to his advantage. In one episode, his people literally stole vaccines and had a vaccination party for some rich people hopping the line. Tonight, he made a really good point that 90% of the doses are controlled by a handful of rich countries and poor or developing ones are literally begging for some of it, so his business plan is to sell the vaccines to that market and make billions. Topical stuff.

 

[Admiral Beez]

I am not sure who is watching the new Law & Order spinoff called Organized Crime, but the main villain on the show (played by Dylan McDermott) is using the pandemic to his advantage. In one episode, his people literally stole vaccines and had a vaccination party for some rich people hopping the line. Tonight, he made a really good point that 90% of the doses are controlled by a handful of rich countries and poor or developing ones are literally begging for some of it, so his business plan is to sell the vaccines to that market and make billions. Topical stuff.

The vaccines are controlled by the countries that developed and produced them. It’s their self interest, not altruism that‘s leading them to share their vaccines at all.

 

[Rufus8]

The US, UK, and Italy have all had 3x our death toll per capita. Germany is higher too. Vaccinations and spread of the virus aren't really correlated until a critical mass is vaccinated, which we're quickly getting to.

Stats Canada says the excess death rate from Jan 2020- Feb 2021 was 2.1% (658 more than usual).

The Daily — Provisional death counts and excess mortality, January 2020 to February 2021

COVID-19 continues to affect communities and families in Canada. Beyond deaths attributed to the disease itself, the pandemic could also have indirect consequences that increase or decrease the number of deaths as a result of various factors, including delayed medical procedures or increased...

www150.statcan.gc.ca

 

[Quint]

Stats Canada says the excess death rate from Jan 2020- Feb 2021 was 2.1% (658 more than usual).

The Daily — Provisional death counts and excess mortality, January 2020 to February 2021

COVID-19 continues to affect communities and families in Canada. Beyond deaths attributed to the disease itself, the pandemic could also have indirect consequences that increase or decrease the number of deaths as a result of various factors, including delayed medical procedures or increased...

www150.statcan.gc.ca

So according to OFFICIAL Stats Canada statistics the EXCESS death rate during the pandemic (starting from Jan 2020) was 658 souls. A large loss of life to be sure! (the equivalent of a fully loaded A380 jetliner crashing with the loss of all onboard) but nothing compared to what we have been told from other "official sources" about the loss of life from Covid.

Did the loss of 658 lives justify shutting down the Canadian economy for well over a year costing over a TRILLION dollars which will lead to skyrocketing inflation which will hurt the poor and middle-class the most and will UNDOUBLETLY lead to FAR MORE deaths than the loss of 658 lives! Did the loss of 658 lives justify wiping out the retirement income of countless Canadians which will leave many of them homeless and ultimately way more than 658 death?

During the shutdown lives lost from Opioid overdoses have skyrocketed 75%! Similarly suicide rates are way up
! And then there are the increased deaths the result of so-called "elective surgery" (e.g. ESSENTIAL Cancer , Cardiac and other life saving surgery) being cancelled during the pandemic.

A few days ago I read about a young father who had his cardiac surgery cancelled because it was deemed "NON-ESENTIAL" i.e. "ELECTIVE" . He sadly died from a heart-attack leaving behind a young widow and two young children.

WHY ARE WE ALLOWING THIS TO HAPPEN?