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I just received an email from Lee Valley. They are closing their stores to instore shopping for two weeks and are moving to curbside and shopping by appointment only.
 
Richard White said:
We are already boned.
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Not yet. Hospitalizations are still low. Out of 18 million Ontarians we have 452 people in hospital due to Covid, compared with 987 on Dec 24, 2020. Get your booster, maintain distancing and masking and we‘ll get through this.

Hospitalizations, ICUs and deaths are the gauges to measure how we‘re doing here, not cases.
 
Admiral Beez said:
Hospitalizations, ICUs and deaths are the gauges to measure how we‘re doing here, not cases.
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Yes and no. Hospitalization is driven from #cases x probability of hospitalization. Given early indications show 1.7% of Omnicron cases lead to hospitalization vs 19% for 3rd wave Delta, you'd probably not want cases 11x more than what it was during the Delta wave. For comparison purposes, Dec 24, 2020, there were ~2.4k cases vs. current ~9.5k cases. It's not fully apples to apples even applying a 11x multiple given the higher 2-dose vaccination rate now than last year. You'd probably NOT want to see, say 50k cases a day, as that would likely lead to hospitals still getting overrun.
 
Rimsky44 said:
Yes and no. Hospitalization is driven from #cases x probability of hospitalization.
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Fair point, and I can agree that case counts in relation to hospitalizations is the most useful metric.

I expect the # of hospitalizations per cases among the vaccinated is less than the 1.7% you reference. We may see a cull of the eligible yet willfully unvaccinated. All things considered, and especially since we’re in this mess still in large part because of them, I’m mostly okay with it.
 
Admiral Beez said:
We may see a cull of the eligible yet willfully unvaccinated. All things considered, and especially since we’re in this mess still in large part because of them, I’m mostly okay with it.
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I agree with your views on those willfully unvaccinated - however the issue is if omnicron spreads to many people, it also has many more hosts where it could mutate. Increased transmissibility with the same lethality of Delta would be disasterous, if it goes that direction. We're lucky Omnicron appears less lethal...but that doesn't mean this is the final evolution of the virus. Unfortunately, given the global-nature of this pandemic, many can't get vaccinated in developing countries, where it's fertile breeding ground for mutations...
 
Rimsky44 said:
I agree with your views on those willfully unvaccinated - however the issue is if omnicron spreads to many people, it also has many more hosts where it could mutate. Increased transmissibility with the same lethality of Delta would be disasterous, if it goes that direction. We're lucky Omnicron appears less lethal...but that doesn't mean this is the final evolution of the virus. Unfortunately, given the global-nature of this pandemic, many can't get vaccinated in developing countries, where it's fertile breeding ground for mutations...
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Every where on earth where people remain unvaccinated is breeding ground for mutations...The U.S alone has 100 million people un vanaxed. Plus millions of people in Europe and Asia also remain unvaxxed.

Most of the planet has easy access to vaccines, but unfortunately it' a not a crime to live your life unvaccinated. Those idiots are ruining it for everyone else.
 
At this point, I think we won't get meaningful case numbers as we are outstripping testing capacity.
 
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As of Dec 24, 2021: Hospitalized 508, ICU 164, https://covid-19.ontario.ca/

And for some perspective: Dec 24, 2020: Hospitalized 987, ICU 277.

If we don’t see a significant rise in either hospitalizations or ICU as cases skyrocket we can assume the vaccines are working. We should know within the next two weeks after everyone’s high risk holiday behaviour comes home to roost.
 
Admiral Beez said:
As of Dec 24, 2021: Hospitalized 508, ICU 164, https://covid-19.ontario.ca/

And for some perspective: Dec 24, 2020: Hospitalized 987, ICU 277.

If we don’t see a significant rise in either hospitalizations or ICU as cases skyrocket we can assume the vaccines are working. We should know within the next two weeks after everyone’s high risk holiday behaviour comes home to roost.
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We already know vaccines work, the test will be if they work well enough in reducing the severity of illness in those vaccinated to cope with far more people (many vaccinated or already with immunity due to an earlier infection) testing positive but NOT getting ill enough to need hospitalisation. I think the jury is still out on that but the evidence from several studies points to YES.
 
DSC said:
…the test will be if the vaccines work well enough in reducing the severity of illness in those vaccinated to cope with far more people (many vaccinated or already with immunity due to an earlier infection) testing positive but NOT getting ill enough to need hospitalisation.
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That was my point.
 
https://twitter.com/x/status/1475584463941914635

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Got our Moderna boosters at a pop-up that my wife found on the Toronto Vax site, just by chance this AM. Made our appointments on the site and within seconds there were none left. It's like the Hunger Games. Have now canceled my Jan 3rd booking at Thorncliffe. Hopefully that's the last Covid needle I ever need.... we'll see.
 
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