[scarberiankhatru]

No one here seems to be aware that "packed" buses are a poor indication of actual ridership since the TTC only runs a certain minimum number of buses. If Finch West had the same service at noon that it does at 4pm, the buses at noon would not be packed. When bus routes move 30-50,000 people a day, it takes a trivial number of people, the kind of crowd that can spring up randomly at any point, to fill a bus.

 

[kettal]

No, I'm pretty sure everybody already knows that.

 

[taal]

taal mentioned it, I defended it

Very serious, particularly Viva purple - Viva blue is more busy, that's true.

But look at the ridership - Viva blue is 16K roughly and Viva purple 6-7K - I know purple is busy during peek but to have such low ridership it takes low off peek ridership ... blue is a very long line as well.

 

[taal]

No one here seems to be aware that "packed" buses are a poor indication of actual ridership since the TTC only runs a certain minimum number of buses. If Finch West had the same service at noon that it does at 4pm, the buses at noon would not be packed. When bus routes move 30-50,000 people a day, it takes a trivial number of people, the kind of crowd that can spring up randomly at any point, to fill a bus.

This is a good point but the key here is what are we comparing it too ... most transit agencies run lower off peek service - and most transit agencies generally have more crowed buses during peak times. In other words, what's your point? The TTC isn't doing anything drastic here.

If your trying to argue the TTC runs way less off peek ridership then they need to ... 100% agreed. If your trying to argue the TTC does not have very high off peek ridership that's very far off base - all the 25 - 40K routes still have 10min better service most of the day - 36 is a good example - a lot of them are quite a bit better then 10min < this is at the very least the quoted frequency, not necessarily what we get but that's a whole different matter.

 

[scarberiankhatru]

This is a good point but the key here is what are we comparing it too ... most transit agencies run lower off peek service - and most transit agencies generally have more crowed buses during peak times. In other words, what's your point? The TTC isn't doing anything drastic here.

If your trying to argue the TTC runs way less off peek ridership then they need to ... 100% agreed. If your trying to argue the TTC does not have very high off peek ridership that's very far off base - all the 25 - 40K routes still have 10min better service most of the day - 36 is a good example - a lot of them are quite a bit better then 10min < this is at the very least the quoted frequency, not necessarily what we get but that's a whole different matter.

Peak.

My point is that no one here bothers to read posts before responding and that second in pie and others are wrong when they cite packed buses as proof of heavy ridership. How often are these packed buses running? For the TTC, buses almost invariably run just infrequently enough to ensure an acceptable level of overcrowding. That's simply what is practical and affordable. Most buses on most routes are full all day long so it's the frequency that actually matters (and since buses only have like 30-40 seats, it takes a trivial number of riders to make the route full).

A near-full bus running every 10 minutes translates into more of a near-empty LRT running every 5 minutes. The same packed buses running every 2 minutes, however, translates into much fuller LRT vehicles at 5 minute frequencies.

 

[taal]

Peak.

My point is that no one here bothers to read posts before responding and that second in pie and others are wrong when they cite packed buses as proof of heavy ridership. How often are these packed buses running? For the TTC, buses almost invariably run just infrequently enough to ensure an acceptable level of overcrowding. That's simply what is practical and affordable. Most buses on most routes are full all day long so it's the frequency that actually matters (and since buses only have like 30-40 seats, it takes a trivial number of riders to make the route full).

A near-full bus running every 10 minutes translates into more of a near-empty LRT running every 5 minutes. The same packed buses running every 2 minutes, however, translates into much fuller LRT vehicles at 5 minute frequencies.

Thanks, right, all good points.

While seeing packed buses off peak isn't the best indication it's not the worst either.

It's true that irregular packed off peak buses can happen for many reasons but generally the TTC and other regional agencies provide proportionally better off peak frequency for busier routes ... which is still bad. My point being that if buses are *consistently* packed / busy off peak it's most likely a busy route unless it's being terribly managed.

Anyway, these are all rather mute points and it's a pretty silly debate ... so to answer the original question it hasn't been established yet.

But it's a good question, not necessarily the way you think though. I'm sure the amount of people the new lines will be able to transport will be quite a bit higher then what's currently in place off peak.

The question here though is in what form will this come in (and this goes back to scarberiankhatru points above in some ways)? From what I recall the LRTs used here are going to be huge ... comparable to 2/3 buses ? maybe more - in any case, this might mean lower frequencies then currently exist off peak. Hopefully they strike a good comprise but I'm slightly worried about this.

 

[Second_in_pie]

Peak.

My point is that no one here bothers to read posts before responding and that second in pie and others are wrong when they cite packed buses as proof of heavy ridership. How often are these packed buses running? For the TTC, buses almost invariably run just infrequently enough to ensure an acceptable level of overcrowding. That's simply what is practical and affordable. Most buses on most routes are full all day long so it's the frequency that actually matters (and since buses only have like 30-40 seats, it takes a trivial number of riders to make the route full).

A near-full bus running every 10 minutes translates into more of a near-empty LRT running every 5 minutes. The same packed buses running every 2 minutes, however, translates into much fuller LRT vehicles at 5 minute frequencies.

Viva, a bus every 15 minutes. For middle of the night and midday riderships, that's not bad for busses running straight through the suburban scourge with absolutely no RT to back themselves up. Mind you, Blue uses articulated busses too, so a "packed" Blue bus is about 1.5 times as "packed" as a regular TTC bus.
Also, if you want to get the real ridership of Blue and Purple, combine them with the Yonge and Highway 7 busses respectively. Because there's no appreciable difference in speed, people usually just take the first bus that comes, unless they're going a very long distance.

But how did this get into a discussion about the suburban arterials?

 

[taal]

Viva, a bus every 15 minutes. For middle of the night and midday riderships, that's not bad for busses running straight through the suburban scourge with absolutely no RT to back themselves up. Mind you, Blue uses articulated busses too, so a "packed" Blue bus is about 1.5 times as "packed" as a regular TTC bus.
Also, if you want to get the real ridership of Blue and Purple, combine them with the Yonge and Highway 7 busses respectively. Because there's no appreciable difference in speed, people usually just take the first bus that comes, unless they're going a very long distance.

But how did this get into a discussion about the suburban arterials?

This merely stemmed from my feelings regarding Viva purple off peak ridership - not so much Viva blue but a similar argument applies to a lesser extent. No matter what argument you use, viva purple seems somewhat busy during the peak - given my nearly daily use - but too explain the low ridership - it must have low, very low, off peak ridership - being on the bus quite a few times during off peak I find this quite true. Discussing the other routes on Hi-way is irrelevant as I was only referring to the purple's ridership. But the #1 bus is never very crowed peak or not. Viva blue more consistent ridership most of the day.

Anyway, back on topic

 

[scarberiankhatru]

While seeing packed buses off peak isn't the best indication it's not the worst either.

It's not an indication. It's meaningless without the frequency. And frequency is meaningless without knowing how full the vehicles are.

My point being that if buses are *consistently* packed / busy off peak it's most likely a busy route unless it's being terribly managed.

Ridership on almost every route at any time of day can seem extremely high if service is low enough to cause full buses. Anyway, it doesn't matter what off-peak ridership is...peak ridership dictates what gets built. Finch is already an undeniably busy route because of peak crowds.

Anyway, these are all rather mute points and it's a pretty silly debate ... so to answer the original question it hasn't been established yet.

Moot. Moot.

It's not a silly debate just because some people don't appreciate what might happen. We don't know if the TTC will tweak service to meet 'demand' like they do on surface routes or if they will keep to service standards like subway routes and run vehicles, say, every 3 minutes even if they're practically empty. The TTC can promise whatever they want right now, but we can't be sure of what we'll actually get until the TTC gets their hands on working lines.

But it's a good question, not necessarily the way you think though. I'm sure the amount of people the new lines will be able to transport will be quite a bit higher then what's currently in place off peak.

What's currently in place can change. Go from 5 minute frequencies to 3 minute frequencies and buses will no longer be packed. Go from 5 minute frequencies to 8 minute frequencies and packed buses will become horribly overcrowded. The TTC could use larger LRT vehicles to lower frequencies enough that crowding level remain unchanged. Is that better service?

 

[taal]

What's currently in place can change. Go from 5 minute frequencies to 3 minute frequencies and buses will no longer be packed. Go from 5 minute frequencies to 8 minute frequencies and packed buses will become horribly overcrowded. The TTC could use larger LRT vehicles to lower frequencies enough that crowding level remain unchanged. Is that better service?

Looks like you missed the last paragraph of my last post.

I'd argue it's not better service, it might even lead to lower ridership - but running larger headways off peak with larger transit vehicles (the *LRT* in this case) may lead to better reliability - but will a streetcar every 10/15 min attract as many riderships as a more packed less reliably streetcar every 5min ... a moot point seeing how the TTC doesn't really manage to achieve this currently with the in-traffic LRT's but when they're in their own lane it might be possible.

 

[kettal]

Ridership on almost every route at any time of day can seem extremely high if service is low enough to cause full buses. Anyway, it doesn't matter what off-peak ridership is...peak ridership dictates what gets built. Finch is already an undeniably busy route because of peak crowds.

Actually, it's more of a bell curve. On one end, you have buses arriving every 5 seconds, so each one is nearly empty, and on the other end you have buses coming along every 90 minutes, which is such a turn off that people just stop using it, and the bus still tends to be empty.

Your typical YRT local-bus route (off-peak) is on the right side of that spectrum, while Finch's off-peak is slightly to the left side of the peak of that curve.

 

[taal]

Actually, it's more of a bell curve. On one end, you have buses arriving every 5 seconds, so each one is nearly empty, and on the other end you have buses coming along every 90 minutes, which is such a turn off that people just stop using it, and the bus still tends to be empty.

Your typical YRT local-bus route (off-peak) is on the right side of that spectrum, while Finch's off-peak is slightly to the left side of the peak of that curve.

While clearly no bus route has 5 second headways, on the 36/39 that does seem to be the case (on peak or off) for a good 3/4 buses sometimes

Of course after that follows a 10min dull and a huge crowd ...

When I used to eat at the Mr. Sub at Finch and Yonge this was a very common occurrence.

 

[scarberiankhatru]

Looks like you missed the last paragraph of my last post.possible.

I didn't miss it, I skipped it as it was kind of gibberishy, as was the paragraph after this line. "will a streetcar every 10/15 min attract as many riderships as a more packed less reliably streetcar every 5min" Huh? 5 minute frequencies means fewer people on each vehicle and greater reliability than 10-15 minutes. The reliability problems start mounting again when vehicles are more frequent than light cycles, and they mount on very long routes that the TTC has a dubious interest in micro-managing.

Actually, it's more of a bell curve. On one end, you have buses arriving every 5 seconds, so each one is nearly empty, and on the other end you have buses coming along every 90 minutes, which is such a turn off that people just stop using it, and the bus still tends to be empty.

Your typical YRT local-bus route (off-peak) is on the right side of that spectrum, while Finch's off-peak is slightly to the left side of the peak of that curve.

We're talking about busy routes - not routes in Aurora or TTC routes like Senlac, most of which are very short and run through sparse areas - so it's assumed we're talking about routes like Finch, particularly since Finch has been specifically cited many times.

 

[taal]

I didn't miss it, I skipped it as it was kind of gibberishy, as was the paragraph after this line. "will a streetcar every 10/15 min attract as many riderships as a more packed less reliably streetcar every 5min" Huh? 5 minute frequencies means fewer people on each vehicle and greater reliability than 10-15 minutes. The reliability problems start mounting again when vehicles are more frequent than light cycles, and they mount on very long routes that the TTC has a dubious interest in micro-managing.

Not sure how you got that from the above, although I agree it wasn't written very well. The point is 15min frequencies will of course be more reliable and cheaper to operate and could still serve the same number of people as 5/7min routes given the vehicles themselves are larger - but is this really ideal.

I'm afraid that once we have the larger vehicles running on the TC routes frequencies will go up because it'll be easier do this. It might not be bad thing in the end given the reliability - I guess I'm most afraid of off peak ridership suffering because of much higher headways

 

[kettal]

We're talking about busy routes - not routes in Aurora or TTC routes like Senlac, most of which are very short and run through sparse areas - so it's assumed we're talking about routes like Finch, particularly since Finch has been specifically cited many times.

If, hypothetically, Finch bus service was reduced to 1 bus per hour, you can be assured that people will start using whatever other mode they can (drive, bike, walk, crawl, electric wheelchair), and the buses won't actually be full.

Where do you think is the ideal spot on this curve for TTC service?