Bordercollie
Senior Member
I bet you if it gets abandoned, in ten years they will want to revive it for commuter rail.
Orangeville and Bolton was looking to get commuter rail using the CP line, could Metrolinks purchase the line to run GO trains on?
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- Thread starter SaugeenJunction
- Start date
Orangeville and Bolton was looking to get commuter rail using the CP line, could Metrolinks purchase the line to run GO trains on?
christine
New Member
Metrolinx could acquire part of it to protect the corridor for future use and there is some precedence for this. However, ridership on the Orangeville GO bus is weak and even the ambitious and all-encompassing MoveOntario 2020 plan which had that unrealistic Bolton GO line didn't have anything for Orangeville. I wouldn't be too surprised if the province did end up grabbing part of it but I wouldn't bet money on it.
Bordercollie
Senior Member
The bus to Orangeville is likely not popular because it involves a transfer. It would be faster and more convenient to drive to Brampton to catch the train to go downtown.
north-of-anything
Active Member
One thing I thought of that would be neat, but most likely way too expensive to be profitable, would be extending a Bolton GO line across Caledon to reach Orangeville, in lieu of service to New Tecumseth:
The Castlederg station would serve Caledon East, the Forks station would serve Alton, Caledon Village, and the town of Erin, and the Orangeville station would serve Dufferin County. A right-of-way probably does not exist, but if it did then that could facilitate converting the trail between Inglewood and Brampton into a rail trail, and potentially using the segment within Brampton as an extension of the Hurontario LRT.
The Castlederg station would serve Caledon East, the Forks station would serve Alton, Caledon Village, and the town of Erin, and the Orangeville station would serve Dufferin County. A right-of-way probably does not exist, but if it did then that could facilitate converting the trail between Inglewood and Brampton into a rail trail, and potentially using the segment within Brampton as an extension of the Hurontario LRT.
HighIron905
New Member
The big problem we are going to have is that the OBRAG is the one pulling out here. Of course that decision is highly motivated by the by the toxic environment created by the ORDC. What this means is very important though. It means we may not be able to rely on the industries in town as partners in any efforts we launch.
Bordercollie
Senior Member
Would there be another potential operator? Next municipal election is not till 2022.
HighIron905
New Member
I can't say that there would be. The industries are the ones that pay to operate the line. The big problem is that these industries are giving up on Orangeville. There isn't going to be a way to get them back on rail because they can't afford it without Geon. That means the best, or only hope is to get Metrolinx or the town to rail bank it, leaving the rail infrastructure in place.
That means we have to get out there and spread our message. We have work to do and not much time to do it.
Wm Perkins Bull
Active Member
A potential backup is somehow convince the Region of Peel to buy the section at least from King Street south, so they can run a diesel O train like service on it to Britannia in the future. By moving it from Orangeville's ownership to Peel's ownership, that could significantly reduce property taxes for the railway. Peel Region might find it advantageous to have OBRY able to use the railway, in exchange for maintenance and improvements to the track.
HighIron905
New Member
The following is an excerpt from an email from Metrolinx to a member of the BruceRails groups.io group. It highlights the bleakness of the situation at hand and how difficult it will be to even convince Metrolinx to rail bank the line:
"Thank you for your email regarding expanding rail service to Orangeville/Dufferin County. I can understand how frustrating it is not to see rail service extended to your area.
Metrolinx has not formally studied providing GO Rail service to Orangeville. Transit ridership in the corridor is quite low, with 100 daily passengers from Orangeville taking the 37 GO Bus to Brampton. According to the 2016 TTS Travel Diary there are only 100 people travelling between Orangeville and downtown Toronto on any given day, across all modes.
More critically, the travel demand between Orangeville and Brampton and Mississauga combined is approximately 3000 people during the morning peak period . Given a typical mode share for transit (at 10-15%), the benefits to existing bus passengers and new rail passengers would not outweigh the costs of upgrading the 55 km of the Orangeville-Brampton Railway to enable it to handle GO Rail trains, which at a conservative estimate would likely exceed $400 million.
We are committed to providing a safe, efficient service that meets our customers’ needs today and in the future and your comments will be used as valuable input into the ongoing review of our service.
Thank you for providing me with the opportunity to address your concern."
"Thank you for your email regarding expanding rail service to Orangeville/Dufferin County. I can understand how frustrating it is not to see rail service extended to your area.
Metrolinx has not formally studied providing GO Rail service to Orangeville. Transit ridership in the corridor is quite low, with 100 daily passengers from Orangeville taking the 37 GO Bus to Brampton. According to the 2016 TTS Travel Diary there are only 100 people travelling between Orangeville and downtown Toronto on any given day, across all modes.
More critically, the travel demand between Orangeville and Brampton and Mississauga combined is approximately 3000 people during the morning peak period . Given a typical mode share for transit (at 10-15%), the benefits to existing bus passengers and new rail passengers would not outweigh the costs of upgrading the 55 km of the Orangeville-Brampton Railway to enable it to handle GO Rail trains, which at a conservative estimate would likely exceed $400 million.
We are committed to providing a safe, efficient service that meets our customers’ needs today and in the future and your comments will be used as valuable input into the ongoing review of our service.
Thank you for providing me with the opportunity to address your concern."
ShonTron
Moderator
That’s an unusually detailed and reasoned response.
Though, yes, it is unfortunate that Metrolinx isn’t interested in saving the rail line, I’m in agreement that the ridership isn’t there to justify anything other than buses.
Though, yes, it is unfortunate that Metrolinx isn’t interested in saving the rail line, I’m in agreement that the ridership isn’t there to justify anything other than buses.
robmausser
Senior Member
While I don't doubt that ridership on the rail line would be a bit too low to justify, I HATE, HATE, HATE this ideology that "well, lets examine current ridership and assume that future ridership will be the same based on that"
NO! Thats not how future prediction works. You have to take into account all aspects, including how the new service will increase demand for ridership.
Perhaps people don't like taking the bus. Perhaps many people who drive to Toronto from Orangeville would be incentivized to leave their car at home to take a train.
Most people who take the bus take it because they have no other choice. People who drive take the train. Theres a simple reason for that, beyond the perception of buses being less desirable than trains; trains don't get stuck in traffic.
Theres so many variables to look into when determining if a project is worthwhile, and the predicted ridership, you cannot, cannot just look at the existing system and say "well no one rides this so no one will ride X". Perhaps the current system sucks...
Bordercollie
Senior Member
It does suck. And what is the potential increase in population in Orangeville, and Caledon.
The current transfer at Brampton makes it very unattractive. It would be better for buses to go all the way to Kipling and connect to the subway.
ShonTron
Moderator
How is the transfer at Brampton unattractive, as compared to a transfer at Kipling?
The bus arrives at the bus terminal right below the station platforms, with only one flight of stairs or elevator up to meet the train. That train makes just five stops (or just one, if you get the express) before reaching Union Station. The bus stops at several park-and-ride lots with guaranteed parking, unlike the congested Brampton or Bramalea lots.
A transfer at Kipling will force the bus to sit in a lot more traffic, particularly on Highways 410 and 401. The bus terminal at Kipling will be a longer walk to the subway than the current transfer at Brampton.
Even with upgrades, the bus to Brampton will beat the rail speeds on the OBRY.
HighIron905
New Member
Council to look at repurposing rail line after it ceases operations in Dec. 2021
By Sam Odrowski A handful of manufacturers in Orangeville will be receiving their materials by truck instead of train at the end of next year. The Orangeville Brampton Rail Access Group (OBRAG) pro…
“The dream would be somebody living in downtown Toronto, taking their bike, getting on the Go Train at Union Station, traveling up to the Brampton Go Station, riding their bike 250 meters to the west and picking up this new recreational trail and riding all the way up into Orangeville.”
This is quite literally the stupidest thing I have ever heard. If Metrolinx says they can't get enough people to ride a train to Orangeville, who would ride a bike there? This thinly veiled conflict of interest is absolutely rediculous and is going to potentially cost us a Kitchener Line - Milton Line connector and for that, we must fight this at every step of the way.
Wm Perkins Bull
Active Member
They specifically looked at all people who travel from Orangeville to Toronto, and using the TTS, determined this to be 100 across all modes. This is not even the seated capacity of 1 BiLevel. Even if the population of Orangeville doubled, and 10% of the population used it, that is still only 6k people, which at a cost of $400m, is over $60k per rider. If you really wanted improved regional connectivity for Orangeville, what you'd push for is for Brampton to have a Highway 10 BRT, from Steeles to King Street it'd run in dedicated lanes, and from King Street to Orangeville, it'd run in paved shoulders, that might be justifiable.
The total growth between Dufferin County and Caledon to 2051 is expected to be around 250k people, however, over 80% of this growth is going to be in the south part of Caledon, as a thin strip along the Brampton border, which means that does nothing for rail to Toronto.