Deadpool X
Senior Member
They are a few years away from completing Stage 2 while having several issues with Stage 1 construction. What's the point in having budget allocation for Stage 3 in 2022?
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- Thread starter Reecemartin
- Start date
ARG1
Senior Member
As a reminder, Stage 2 was funded and started construction roughly when Stage 1 opened. So its almost certain that Stage 3 will be funded around the same time, around 2024 or 25.
kEiThZ
Superstar
Nor should there be. Given the communting patterns in Ottawa and the user profile (heavily reliant on public servant and students commuting), they need to look at what the federal work force adjustment will look like after COVID.
They need to look at what is more important. Improving feeder bus service, or double tracking the Trillium Line, they'd have to decide what offers better return.
smallspy
Senior Member
As of right now, much of the Federal Work Force in Ottawa is looking like the office work force in many other industries - being told to be back at the office, sometimes on a more limited schedule, and making plans for full-time.
Dan
Allandale25
Senior Member
OCCheetos
Active Member
Infrastructure takes years to build, and it's not like we're just going to give up and pack up the LRT any time soon.
At this point it's been pretty well-established that the continuing operational issues are related to the poor execution of maintenance. It'll either improve over time or be completely replaced. Either way, Stage 3 is basically just new track and stations. Not funding it (at least the relatively short hops across the greenbelt) is just a political move now.
A not-insignificant amount of operational spending is being wasted and dumped into running buses across the Greenbelt. The Confederation Line(s) should at least be extended across the Greenbelt to Fallowfield and Terry Fox to "complete" the suburban LRT network and enable better transit hubs within those communities.
Also, the Fallowfield VIA crossing is going to be grade separated with or without LRT, so there's an opportunity cost there that can't just be ignored.
This isn't a strictly either-or situation.
kEiThZ
Superstar
Sure. But is it enough to justify $3-5B in capital spending to save those dollars. That's a lot of money that can do a lot for the city. It's a valid question to ask if bridging the Greenbelt is the best use of money. Especially, since the cost of operating across the gap will drop with electrification of the bus fleet.
There can be valid city-building reasons to extend the lines. I'm just questioning whether there is a real transit business case for that.
drum118
Superstar
DirectionNorth
Active Member
The extension to Barrhaven is estimated at what, $3.5 billion dollars for 10 km? That's a similar per-km cost to the fully tunneled (and similar waste of money) EWLRT, on an above-ground alignment that already exists (except for the Baseline - Hunt Club section). I know that there are some rock formations or something under there, but I seriously question whether there are not projects that would get more bang for buck, like Carling LRT + Baseline BRT + BRT to North Kanata (which is < $3 billion). I can see the case for a Baseline - Fallowfield and Moodie - Eagleson or Terry Fox extension, but the extensions to Stittsville and Barrhaven Centre are madness for what should be relatively cheap extensions. The cost/benefit ratio simply isn't there.
rbt
Senior Member
Much of that is because construction isn't expected to start until 2031. Inflation will roughly double construction prices between now and then.
I preferred when projects were presented to the public using "todays" value instead of cash-flow value (value at time payments are actually made).
kEiThZ
Superstar
Even setting aside inflation, $5B to build LRT, half through greenbelt, to serve the edge of Kanata and Barrhaven is pretty ridiculous. Gotta ask if Ottawa is not better off with accelerating bus electrification, twinning the Trillium Line and building the Carling tram for the same money.
ARG1
Senior Member
Flat 3B
2B from Algonquin to Fallowfield, 1B from Fallowfield to Barrhaven Center.
OCCheetos
Active Member
Getting out to Barrhaven (Baseline to Fallowfield) requires traversing an area with very poor soil conditions. In addition, that cost bundles in two major road grade separations from the VIA line which will be done with or without the LRT (for $400M).
From Fallowfield to Barrhaven Town Centre, the $1B cost is slightly inflated due to the proposal to build a full new maintenance facility, which no other extension (except Line 2 south) included.
I'm sorry to say that the estimates were done in
OCCheetos
Active Member
The estimate was recently revised, and including a ~$50M realignment to avoid the demolition of homes between Knoxdale and Hunt Club, the new estimate is $3.52B.
rbt
Senior Member
That is unfortunate. I'd love to see a price breakdown of that, because even with an MSF it seems very high.