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- Thread starter wyliepoon
- Start date
dowlingm
Senior Member
Spoken like someone who has never followed the fortunes of YHM, with routes announced and then quietly disappearing a year or so later.
As for the infrastructure ask, let's start with not converting Hwy 6 to a 400 series (currently 1 lane per direction) and not building a rail line through nature reserves, farm fields and interesting terrain but instead instituting frequent (no less than hourly) GO bus service between YHM and Aldershot GO - 20 minutes road speed vs 1h+ via the current options via the city centre, and once they are underway start GO services to Brantford and Cambridge via the same 403/6 intersection.
kEiThZ
Superstar
If we assume average flight loads between 150-200 pax per aircraft and 1 MM pax, that works out to 14-18 flights a day. A 2 gate terminal would be fine. And it could fit in to a normal GA ops. So not really a burdensome deal. The issue, however, again, is whether splitting the catchment works for the airlines. Those passengers all fill seats at Pearson. So this leads to two scenarios:
1) Sufficient movement that the airline can cut flights at Pearson and add them in Pickering with no loss of traffic or even a net gain.
2) Insufficient movement to allow reduction in Pearson slots. So now the airline is facing emptier airplanes at Pearson and the need to service flights at another airport. That's a terrible business case.
For charters, frequency matters less but load factors matter a ton. Not one slot will move unless the airport can fill up the plane to at least or more than Pearson. I suspect this might be worse than Hamilton. At least Hamilton has a lot more potential from the Western GTA and Southwestern Ontario and the Niagara region. It still struggles with more than a few flights a day.
micheal_can
Senior Member
The only way that a Pickering Airport works as a passenger airport is if all the Canadian carriers were to split their domestic and international flights between the 2 airports.
None have enough of each that would make it viable.
None have enough of each that would make it viable.
TOareaFan
Superstar
sorry, are you saying (for example) that Air Canada (as an example) would run domestic flights out of Pearson and International out of Pickering? (or vice versa)
micheal_can
Senior Member
kEiThZ
Superstar
No major city except the ridiculous situations in the US with their perimeter rules do that...like at LaGuardia and Reagan. And airports that had this are quickly moving away from it to integrated airports. There is exactly zero chance any of the airlines at Pearson agree to this. Their entire model at Pearson is based on quick international-domestic/cross-border transit.
micheal_can
Senior Member
I was also thinking of London with Heathrow and Gatwick.
kEiThZ
Superstar
They don't separate domestic and international at any of the London airports. Heathrow, Gatwick, Stansted, London City and Luton all serve domestic and international flights.
muller877
Senior Member
A 2-6 gate terminal would be ideal (as long as there is a master plan that allows it to grow with demand). Think of London ON.
You're second option assumes a monopolistic situation. However, if Westjet decides to offer flights from Pickering it may steal some passengers from Air Canada. Exactly why they have flights out of Hamilton and KW.
There is a 3rd scenario. It does not "cut" flights from Pearson but slows down the growth and encourages more air traffic. Just how Porter did it at the Island.
I find it astonishing that so many people have blinders on and either are focused on another Pearson or nothing. Actually now that I think about it i'm not that surprised. The no airport NIMBY crowd wants this type of discussion to stop any airport from being built near their houses.
TOareaFan
Superstar
Huge difference....Porter was a new airline with no operation at Pearson to abandon and a completely different operating model (short haul only)....they did not have to consider abandoning the biggest transfer point in Canada and they became instantly the big fish in the small pond that is YTZ.....if you have a new airline in your back pocket that will instantly view Pickering as their hub.....then you might have a reason to have an airport there.
muller877
Senior Member
then why does Westjet serve Hamilton and Kitchener? For local residents who want to travel from Hamilton/Kitchener. It's not abandoning the hub of Toronto but building the Calgary Hub.
I'll keep on saying it...Pickering will not replace Pearson. But it will have enough demand for a small commercial airport.
TOareaFan
Superstar
the level of service that Westjet runs from Hamilton and Kitchener is limited and the fact the airport was existing infrastructure that was underused means for those small amount of planes they can generate some business at a low enough cost that they can do this.
It works because the airport already existed......it is no where near enough (nor would the amount of ancillary service to/from Pickering ) to justify/cover the cost of building an entire new airport.
The WestJet operations at those airports is nothing like the Porter operations at YTZ....far more like the Air Canada option there....limited, likely money losing....but good for profile.
SaugeenJunction
Senior Member
kEiThZ
Superstar
Their forecast plans that I've seen only show GA for a long time. Pearson is just to close and Toronto's layout just doesn't favour another airport in the east end. Also, if VIA HFR happens, some slots will open up at Pearson and let them launch more air service.