Towered
Superstar
Perhaps the war in Ukraine was the jolt they needed to shake off complacency and sleeping with the enemy...
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- Thread starter King of Kensington
- Start date
jje1000
Senior Member
I do not think there is any coming back from this, not to the extent like before. If there is a path, it will be narrow and require enormous political skill to pull off, which I don't see in its current political class.
The US is re-industrializing at Europe's expense, while Europe on the whole faces both challenging economic fundamentals (cost of many inputs) and a demographic sunset which is not entirely satisfied by their current immigrants, which will compound skillset losses.
IMO, the dark endstate of German industry is de-industrialization through outsourcing to Eastern Europe, to the US, and to China- most evident through its chemical crown jewel BASF (15% of Germany's natural gas consumption) cutting production at home, and moving it overseas.
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kEiThZ
Superstar
The EU may lose export share. But I fully expect protectionism to ramp to preserve the industrial base at home.
Also, China is on a very short leash. Their covert support for Russia is eroding trust in their largest export market (the EU). I expect the EU to follow some policy of domestic reshoring, for protectionist and security reasons.
Also, China is on a very short leash. Their covert support for Russia is eroding trust in their largest export market (the EU). I expect the EU to follow some policy of domestic reshoring, for protectionist and security reasons.
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Admiral Beez
Superstar
Cargill just departed China.
Cargill to sell Chinese poultry business
Cargill intends to sell its poultry business in China to private equity firm DCP Capital, according to reports.
www.feedandgrain.com
Videodrome
Senior Member
Four by-elections today!
EDIT:
The CPC barely held Oxford and the PPC bombed in Portage-Lisgar.
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tiffer24
Senior Member
Former prime minister Brian Mulroney mounted a defence of one of his successors Monday, saying Justin Trudeau has delivered on the "big ticket items" and history won't look kindly on Parliament Hill denizens who push "trash ... rumours" and "gossip."
Speaking at the Atlantic Economic Forum, a symposium at St. Francis Xavier University in Antigonish, N.S., the former Progressive Conservative prime minister said the Liberal Trudeau has had a good run in office. He praised the government's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, its renegotiation of NAFTA and its ongoing support for Ukraine in its war with Russia.
"I have learned over the years that history is unconcerned with the trivia and the trash of rumours and gossip floating around Parliament Hill. History is only concerned with the big ticket items that have shaped the future of Canada," Mulroney said.
He said Trudeau and the premiers "conducted themselves as well as anybody else in the world" in dealing with COVID, something Mulroney called "the greatest challenge that any prime minister has dealt with in Canada in 156 years."
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/brian-mulroney-defends-trudeau-parliament-gossip-trash-1.6882315
Speaking at the Atlantic Economic Forum, a symposium at St. Francis Xavier University in Antigonish, N.S., the former Progressive Conservative prime minister said the Liberal Trudeau has had a good run in office. He praised the government's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, its renegotiation of NAFTA and its ongoing support for Ukraine in its war with Russia.
"I have learned over the years that history is unconcerned with the trivia and the trash of rumours and gossip floating around Parliament Hill. History is only concerned with the big ticket items that have shaped the future of Canada," Mulroney said.
He said Trudeau and the premiers "conducted themselves as well as anybody else in the world" in dealing with COVID, something Mulroney called "the greatest challenge that any prime minister has dealt with in Canada in 156 years."
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/brian-mulroney-defends-trudeau-parliament-gossip-trash-1.6882315
Northern Light
Superstar
I happen to favour substantive critiques over superficial nonsense or trivialities.
But I do have to say here, that a PM alleged (never proven in court) to have accepted bags full of cash.........from a Canadian-German businessman might not be the best person to have defend one's reputation. (hardly the only problematic allegation during his tenure in office) That said, for further detail see:
Karlheinz Schreiber - Wikipedia
I think its fair to say Trudeau handled Covid 'reasonably' when looking at outcomes in other nations. Foul ups on school closures of little epidemiological value would largely be on the applicable premiers.
Though describing Covid as being a greater test than either World War or the Great Depression strikes me as a reach.
Certainly, the current PM has some significant items under his proverbial belt; on the other hand, his government has done more to further the housing crisis than any other; though his certainly wasn't the first
or only culpable party.
Still nice that he (Mulroney) decided to defend a family friend, LOL
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kEiThZ
Superstar
This is true in hindsight. And only thanks to Operation Warp Speed by the Trump administration that delivered vaccines in record time (by historical standards). But at the time, in March 2020, not many leaders really knew what was going on. And certainly, until vaccines started rolling out, nobody how long it would take. The government also faced substantial pressure to build herd immunity through vaccination, but had a whole proportion of the population being anti-vax idiots. So I think some credit is due for their handling of that time period.
That said, using that opportunity to simply rain cash beyond all reason, was also deliberate policy. And it might have substantial impacts on this country's future for decades, all while contributing to screwing young people out of the housing market today.
picard102
Senior Member
CERB helped screw people out of housing?
afransen
Senior Member
By tortured PP logic. CERB caused global inflation, which caused interest rates to rise, which cause mortgage payments to increase, causing people to lose their homes.
kEiThZ
Superstar
Among other spending when it ran unchecked long past the point when it was obvious that we weren't going to see mass unemployment as predicted. At the point, the generous benefit just became extra capital. And in Canada, all extra capital ends up in real estate.
picard102
Senior Member
I somehow doubt the meager amount people got on CERB was enough to buy a home.
AlvinofDiaspar
Moderator
If there is anything - it is the low interest rate policy since the mid-90s.
AoD
AoD
Northern Light
Superstar
Gobs have been written here at UT by myself and others on the root causes of the housing crisis. While one can reasonably discuss how to rank some of them, there is little doubt what factors top the list.
None is greater than stimulating demand growth through total immigration. The main-line channel of which is actually the smallest factor, its the foreign students and the TFW that have seen Canada doubling its normative population growth rates for the last several years.
Thereafter, low interest rates, ammortization period adjustments, capital gains rates/principle residence exemptions for same/lower down payment requirements, first-time home buyer incentives/permissions including right to RRSP withdraws, special savings accounts and more), and CMHC backed mortgages, failure to incent purpose-built rental construction, failure to invest in public housing/co-ops etc etc.
Some of these have been issues since the '90s or before; but others are much more recent; and were enacted under the current government and/or made worse.
None is greater than stimulating demand growth through total immigration. The main-line channel of which is actually the smallest factor, its the foreign students and the TFW that have seen Canada doubling its normative population growth rates for the last several years.
Thereafter, low interest rates, ammortization period adjustments, capital gains rates/principle residence exemptions for same/lower down payment requirements, first-time home buyer incentives/permissions including right to RRSP withdraws, special savings accounts and more), and CMHC backed mortgages, failure to incent purpose-built rental construction, failure to invest in public housing/co-ops etc etc.
Some of these have been issues since the '90s or before; but others are much more recent; and were enacted under the current government and/or made worse.
kEiThZ
Superstar
Fiscal and monetary policy together determine outcomes. Inflation is basically too much money chasing too few goods and services. The fact that incomes went up and disposable incomes skyrocketed (less work related expenses) just as supply was getting depressed drove inflation. CERB was definitely more generous and lasted longer than it should have. Loose controls also meant that there were a good proportion of people who either shouldn't have qualified or didn't really need it. That money ended up in the economy, further exacerbating inflation. Especially combined with record low interest rates.
None of that is to say the extra inflation was really bad. Better to have been looser with the spending than adding an economic depression to a health crisis. But the classic instinct of this government to just cut cheques definitely meant that discipline was not optimal.