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I feel like no one is really commenting on how housing affordability in particular is negatively impacting fertility rate. People start having families later and have fewer children when it is so hard to afford a home.
 
afransen said:
I feel like no one is really commenting on how housing affordability in particular is negatively impacting fertility rate. People start having families later and have fewer children when it is so hard to afford a home.
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Larger families are also a function more often than not, of whether one parent is able to stay home when the children are young (typically, the woman).

This is not some misplaced nostalgia for women all being housewives, just so we're clear. I'm entirely supportive women participating in the labour force in a fulsome way.

Its just a reality that having families of more than 2 children, in close age succession is easier to handle for most families, if one parent is at home, until all the children are school aged.

Even where the cost of daycare is low, adding that daily pick-up/drop-off function, with time targets (must pick-up kid by 6pm is pretty standard), the added logistical challenge just makes it unappealing to many to go through, particularly
multiple times.

That is of course a social choice that is generally discouraged today, but also one that is off-limits to most families who absolutely require 2 incomes which comes back to the housing affordability as one driving factor in requiring 2 incomes, even at the middle income threshold.

Even taking the full parental leave is beyond most families, with the basis one year program providing only 55% income replacement, and the 18-month version 33% income replacement.

Simply changing such that all families get at least 75% income replacement (with a reasonable income cap); and low-income families get a top-up to 90% of the minimum wage, minimum.

Then you'll see more people finding the idea of starting a family or having a larger one, appealing.
 
I'm not opposed to more generous parental leave, but realize that that is direct government support that requires taxation to fund. Housing costs can be dramatically reduced without taxation to support it.
 
kEiThZ said:
Financial Times article: The Canada Conundrum

Worth the read.

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It is a good, if short read; a bit light on solutions.

While there are a host of things that need to be done.

I will reiterate my a 2-point labour standards argument.

1) We need higher paid vacation and shorter work weeks (I don't mean below 40 hours, I mean below the range of 44-48 before overtime pay kicks-in)

This has a couple of immediate effects.

Studies clearly show that worker productivity rises when hours are shorter and vacation goes up, people are better rested, and more motivated, their creativity can also be recharged by a full 2 week vacation.

The second reality is simply that most salaried workers (as distinct form shift workers in retail/security/manufacturing) will, in fact, at minimum maintain their current output if they get 1-2 weeks additional vacation, which is a literal rise in productivity per hour.

** Note that as long as the immediately above is true, you really do make a very significant statistical difference.

Watch this:

Canada's GDP per hour worked according to the OECD:ian

1693837570958.png


If you simply hold Canadian output steady, but add the 2 weeks paid vacation (4% fewer hours worked per person), you drive the GDP per hour number up from ~104 to ~108 which takes from the bottom quartile to the top half, roughly in line with Denmark.

****

2) Raise wages

This assists in 2 discrete ways.

a) The higher wage literally add direct economic output as reflected in cost of goods sold; but also indirectly by having a consumer who can in turn buy and invest in more.

b) The higher cost of labour drives productivity investment such as training, software and automation.

****

That low-hanging fruit out of the way..........

We really need to look at:

1) Internal trade barriers and labour-mobility barriers.

2) The impact of large oligopolies across many industries, notably Grocery, Agriculture (Dairy/Pork/Chicken); Banking, and Telcos.

3) We need to foster greater venture capital

4) We need to shift our educational strategy away from Diploma-mill nonsense and to both STEM and vocational/trade skill sets.

5) Canada must also do a better job leading strategic initiatives to take advantage of our international trade opportunities.


Of course there's infinitely more than could be said on this subject, but I think I'll cut myself off there for the moment!
 
afransen said:
I'm not opposed to more generous parental leave, but realize that that is direct government support that requires taxation to fund. Housing costs can be dramatically reduced without taxation to support it.
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I might argue that if we removed certain tax credits/loopholes, some of which directly relate to subsidizing a frothy housing market, that we could redirect a portion of that revenue as opposed to having to implement a substantial tax hike.

It really depends on how one wishes to pay for such a thing, but I would argue for taking parental leave out of the EI program.
 
afransen said:
I feel like no one is really commenting on how housing affordability in particular is negatively impacting fertility rate. People start having families later and have fewer children when it is so hard to afford a home.
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Because it's normalized now. And no political party wants to tell Boomer grandparents that the reason they have fewer grandkids is because they are hogging empty bedrooms in their suburban homes while their kids try to raise grandkids in shoebox condos. So we bring in more immigrants (somebody else's kids) to compensate for not having enough.

Reminds me a little bit of China and the One Child Policy. It ran for so long that it became normalized. From apartments to social programs, everything in China got redesigned around having one child. Now the CCP wants more babies and the women of China aren't delivering, because having a second child is a massive lift.

The marginal cost of a second child in Canada is insane. You need to move from a 2 bedroom condo to a 3 bedroom house. That's an extra $400k in mortgage in a lot of Canada. That's before daycare, RESP, etc.

I was discussing my childcare challenges with an Eastern European friend. His reply? "This is why the West will never repopulate. It sounds like having a kid in Canada, is as difficult and expensive as having a Ferrari. And few people have more than one Ferrari."
 
Just in case anybody thinks I'm exaggerating, Mississauga is the perfect example. It's neighborhoods are depopulating and losing services because young families can't afford the homes. And it's increasingly full of empty nesters. This situation is always compounding too. As schools, rec centres and clinics for families close, more young families leave, accelerating the decline. Yet, propose densification and missing middle housing and watch the backlash. It's the last Boomer attempt to make sure generations after them are truly screwed.

www.theglobeandmail.com

Mississauga faces the growing urban challenge of a shrinking population

The hollowing out of once-bustling neighbourhoods – like the Ontario city’s Cooksville community – makes it harder to run nearby businesses, fill schools or justify money for local civic priorities
www.theglobeandmail.com www.theglobeandmail.com
 
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W. K. Lis said:
Employment Insurance is an insurance. Employers pay 1.4 times the amount of the employee's premium.
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This is like saying the Ontario Health Premium is insurance. If it's not optional, it's a tax. That's not to say it's bad. It's just a statement of fact.
 
kEiThZ said:
Financial Times article: The Canada Conundrum

Worth the read.

Click to expand...
Lately I’ve been viewing Canada as this naive teenager who doesn’t understand nation building and thinks that everything will sort itself out.

We have have resources but we are also stupid to sell off all our state owned piggy banks that could’ve exploited the resources. Eg. Oil. We could’ve had large sovereign wealth funds like some Nordic nations. But no.

The basic concepts of state building is lacklustre. Heck we can’t even bring in the right immigrants to fulfil industry needs. We bring in students but not the skilled economical immigrants that we need to exploit our resources.

Take this as a grain of salt as it comes from Reddit:

Worked in customs and immigration for over a decade so I’ve had my fair share of dealing with hundreds if not thousands of these students over the years. As a Canadian born Indian myself, I’ll speak specifically about the students we’ve been getting from India.

In my experience dealing with them, a huge amount of them actually have no real interest at all in studies but rather come here under the guise of education just to try and get their PR and then bring over the rest of their families. Most possessed elementary level English literacy yet were here to study at the university/college level. Let’s not forget that it isn’t all that difficult to pay and get fake docs in India so safe to assume a lot of these students pay to get their ILETS and other school related docs.

We’re getting most of these students from one part of India. These are “students” that wouldn’t even be able to secure admission at proper universities in bigger Indian cities. The entire diploma mill loophole is a huge problem here. A lot of these students have no real desire to integrate, assimilate or adapt to Canadian culture. They also have no real career ambitions or goals. They come here with the sole purpose of getting their PR and that’s it. They come to places like Surrey, BC and Brampton, ON where there is already huge pre-existing population of South Asians. This makes them think they don’t have no change their ways at all or improve their English since majority of the people speak Punjabi.

This isn’t to say that all of them coming in are bad. I’ve dealt with some pretty good students too but the reality is at this point, the bad far outweigh the good. The bad ones also make themselves extremely visible with their garbage behaviour and a complete lack of social etiquette and respect. Even back in 2017 I knew this would be a disaster sooner or later. Just the sheer amount of them coming in on a daily basis really boggled my mind.

I’m sorry to say but this completely reckless approach will simply not end well. A lot of these students are also sold the fake Canadian dream but arrive here and have a real rude awakening. I’m personally friends with quite a few of them so I’ve been told the reality of this situation first hand by them. Most will end up working dead end jobs in the service and retail industry since most are doing bogus two year diplomas in things like hospitality and tourism. Also a big number of them actively getting involved in gangs/drugs and I was also told by a few friends how some of these international student girls were getting involved in prostitution… some out of sheer financial desperation and others willingly. I can go on and on into more details and specifics but I’ll leave at this for now.

I apologize for the lengthy comment and some of you may have seen similar comments like this from me on other similar posts. I think it’s really crucial to understand the importance of this issue. If this continues, places will literally become next to unliveable. There needs to be proper checks and balances in place because a lot of these students shouldn’t have been granted student visas to even begin with. The amount of loopholes in our immigration system that are readily available for people to exploit is just absolutely ridiculous. I have no hope that this government will do anything meaningful at all to fix this issue or put in preventative measures going forward.

Edit: Just wanted to clarify something further and add a little more context. I’m aware some people are afraid or hesitant to speak up about this issue as they think they’ll be called racists. There is absolutely nothing racist about voicing your concerns about issues that are directly impacting the quality of day to day life for you as Canadians. Also, I want to stress the point that not all of these students are bad. There are genuinely good people who are victims of their circumstances. The good ones tend to get clumped together with all the bad. People will assume I’m generalizing based on my own experiences. I’m basing my opinions obviously on my own experiences but also of those that I personally know (friends, family etc). And some of these friends are international students themselves who had voiced their opinions and concerns to me about their fellow peers. Lastly, I’m not anti-immigration but what I am against is this type of reckless and forced immigration where the focus seems to be solely on quantity while overlooking quality. A complete overlook of infrastructural needs, healthcare and overall cost of living. How many people could we possibly need to fill lower end minimum wage service industry and retail jobs? We need quality people that will fill experienced positions. Doctor shortages, nurse shortage, teacher shortage and the list goes on. I’m just very concerned at this point at the direction this country seems to be headed towards.
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