[Admiral Beez]

For most of us who are not in the know, it was a poignant moment where our PM appeared to be publicly flipping the Trudeau salute to Trump, figuratively speaking. But sure, the devil is always in the details...

With Lockheed-Martin making our fighters, destroyers and current and likely future naval helicopters, and with Boeing making our new maritime patrol aircraft, I can’t see how we can divert defence spending away from the US. Yes, the local offices of L-M, Boeing, GDLS, etc. will employ Canadians and presumably procure Canadian steel and content, but does that domestic spend result in less than 70% going to the US?

 

[Admiral Beez]

The CPC got hammered in the byelections in vote share

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Who the hell voted Green?

 

[afransen]

CBC projects that Mark Carney's Liberals will form a majority government in the House of Commons as the Liberals have now won both the Scarborough Southwest and University Rosedale byelections. This means there likely will not be another federal election until 2029. It is the first majority government formed through byelections and floor crossings in 100 years and quite possibly in Westminister parliamentary history as well. Also first time the federal government has had a majority in 7 years.



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Well, I wouldn't say this majority is bulletproof. They need a few more members to make it so. They are just a downturn in popularity and a couple of deaths or resignations away from being back in minority status.

 

[thettctransitfanatic]

Who the hell voted Green?

Protest votes, maybe? Idk

Well, I wouldn't say this majority is bulletproof. They need a few more members to make it so. They are just a downturn in popularity and a couple of deaths or resignations away from being back in minority status.

Yeah, it's a very small majority government that is razor thin and that Carney will have to watch over carefully, that's for sure. That being said, the consistent rumours of more floor crossings might change this.

 

[Jonny5]

Looks like they are going to actually get Terrebonne too, and by hundreds of votes this time.

 

[thettctransitfanatic]

Tatiana Auguste has won the byelection in Terrebonne, Quebec (by more then one vote this time!), for a clean Liberal sweep of all three byelections. The Bloc vote share did go up however in Terrebonne thanks to Conservatives strategically voting for the Bloc to stop the Liberals. Alas, it wasn't enough and the Liberals did narrowly win it for their first successful, non 1 vote win in the riding since 1980.

Seat change with the byelections
Liberal 174 (+3)
Conservative 140 (-)
Bloc Quebecois 22 (-)
NDP 6 (-)
Green 1 (-)

 

[adma]

...yeah, that was a bit surprising. They where trending to be third place on the poll trackers. Glad my vote counted here. <3

If by "poll trackers" you're referring to projection models as opposed to actual riding polls, those are always quackery. '25 was really an exceptional election...

 

[UtakataNoAnnex]

If by "poll trackers" you're referring to projection models as opposed to actual riding polls, those are always quackery. '25 was really an exceptional election...

They are based on actual riding polls...then presented as a trend to my understanding.

...either way, it is fair to say they can't be relied upon. No poll is perfect and all trackers are based on those imperfect polls. And the only ones that do count are the ones on election day.

 

[zang]

They are based on actual riding polls...then presented as a trend to my understanding.

...either way, it is fair to say they can't be relied upon. No poll is perfect and all trackers are based on those imperfect polls. And the only ones that do count are the ones on election day.

The algorithms/formulas used these days to suss out what % of what demographic will vote for are used on data primarily sourced from seniors and Gen X who still bother to answer the phone for unknown callers. It's as much witchcraft and subjectivity as science, and tend to lean right in almost every case.

 

[Jonny5]

They are based on actual riding polls...then presented as a trend to my understanding.

...either way, it is fair to say they can't be relied upon. No poll is perfect and all trackers are based on those imperfect polls. And the only ones that do count are the ones on election day.

I wouldn't say that exactly. The good poll aggregators weight the value of the polling firm and have documentation on each of their reliability and biases right down to a local level.
Even with polling firm bias, you get value by seeing their own changes over time. It doesn't matter if they always overweight in one direction, you can still look at their changes over time.
The polls also don't only count on election day. Trudeau resigned because the polls showed him what was coming if he didn't.

 

[Mihairokov]

Not sure there's a lot to read into the declining CPC voteshare. There wasn't much motivating CPC voters to go vote in these byelections.

Likewise, the NDP leapfrogging CPC in U-R doesn't mean much either, by virtue of everyone basically knowing this result was a foregone conclusion.

 

[kEiThZ]

With Lockheed-Martin making our fighters, destroyers and current and likely future naval helicopters, and with Boeing making our new maritime patrol aircraft, I can’t see how we can divert defence spending away from the US. Yes, the local offices of L-M, Boeing, GDLS, etc. will employ Canadians and presumably procure Canadian steel and content, but does that domestic spend result in less than 70% going to the US?

I have explained this before. There's important nuances. The Lockheed Martin Canada that is building the ships is a substantially Canadian company with mostly Canadian employees and execs. They ship profit south. But the IP resides in Canada and they openly compete against products from their parent company. That is different from the Lockheed Martin USA that we are buying F-35s from which is an American company and governed by American laws and regulations.

The average person, of course, finds all this confusing. And imagines we're going to ditch anything to do with the US. Not happening. That would make us an economic and security pariah and backwater with massive implications for our own industries and jobs. The government's goals is to indigenize more defence production. They'd welcome more Lockheed Martin Canada. And less Lockheed Martin USA. That means more jobs for Canadians. More intellectual property residing in the country. And more dollars staying at home. The government, rightfully, is not concerned with the sign on the door.

 

[kEiThZ]

Well, I wouldn't say this majority is bulletproof. They need a few more members to make it so. They are just a downturn in popularity and a couple of deaths or resignations away from being back in minority status.

'
It's enough to get a few big things done. But not much more. And I don't expect the LPC to be in government at the next election. Mostly because that would just be an unprecedented streak I think. Hoping he can just get moving on some key priorities. HSR for me.

 

[Northern Light]

And I don't expect the LPC to be in government at the next election. Mostly because that would just be an unprecedented streak I think.

Not quite unprecedented but to get past 2029 would mean the 2nd longest streak in Federal Canadian History.

The record holder is William Lyon Mackenzie King plus Louis St. Laurent who together led Liberal governments from 1935-1957, a total of 22 years.

If the Libs equaled that streak on this run, Trudeau having first won in 2015, they would make it to 2037.

The next longest streak is Wilfred Laurier which was 1896-1911 (15 years) which would be up by 2030.

 

[hw621]

With Lockheed-Martin making our fighters, destroyers and current and likely future naval helicopters, and with Boeing making our new maritime patrol aircraft, I can’t see how we can divert defence spending away from the US. Yes, the local offices of L-M, Boeing, GDLS, etc. will employ Canadians and presumably procure Canadian steel and content, but does that domestic spend result in less than 70% going to the US?

Given the income tax rate of around 26%, it is pretty close.