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"Full mask off." Does that include funding Alto and a portion of Waterfront East LRT? And was Trudeau's admin markedly less cronyistic/pro-corporate? The political class being CEO class-adjacent aside...
The Tories have been supporting big transit projects going to developer's front door for years. As have the Liberals.

I day say that Trudeau was a bit further left and less pro-corporate. Look at all the backpeddling of green objectives that corporations weren't happy with.
 
John Tory is a pretty tired name. Is there really no one more compelling that the Liberals could put forth?
Might it be John Tory *Jr.* that they're considering running? I believe that pre-Doly, there were murmurs of *him* being the SSW Lib candidate. (And a flashback to how, back around Y2K, George W. Bush became GOP presidential frontrunner largely through name recognition--not as Texas governor per se, but conflated into his father.)
 
And Carney would really run the former Conservative leader in a swing riding? WTF?
This explains why Tory was supporting Begum in the Scarborough-Southwest byelection.
Avi Lewis should try to run somewhere more NDP assured, IMO.
Such as where? It's possible Lewis could run in Boulerice's riding if he is indeed departing the federal party, but I feel as if Lewis might have better odds in Toronto than Montreal...
 
green objectives
Some admirable, but infeasible, like 100% EV sales by 2035. Others very flawed like the (industrial) carbon tax. Many in the know would say cap and trade used in EU and Quebec+California is much better.

Setting aside cronyism and corruption (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_political_scandals_in_Canada#Federal)...

Some of Trudeau's pro-corporate policies were indirect. If you're a homeowner with an above median wage job, you likely also benefited from said policies. To be blunt, many Urban Torontoers are out of touch with the worsening plight of the working class since 2015. Immigration policy helped make you house rich. Provided high rents for your rental property. Or better yet, provided cheap labour for your franchise restaurant who wouldn't report you for shorting them on overtime pay. Extremely common for recent immigrants to be paid below legal wage. Either undercounting hours, or not paying 1.5x after 44 hours. This is why I say "pro-corporate in some of the worst ways."

The theories that immigration was needed to prop up the economy or provide labour for residential construction are also bunk.
1776273173533.png


A lot of brouhaha by 2023, but the truth is, net migration had already doubled by 2018, with every year of Trudeau's premiership being higher than Harper's peak (except 2020). Furthermore, annual natural increase (births minus deaths) has always been positive since stats were recorded (to be fair, this trend may reverse soon).

If you consummately believe that economic growth is predicated on population growth... well the population would've grown with 0 net migration from natural increase alone. What instead happened was a reversal of GDP per capita. Falling back to 2012-2014 levels by 2023-2024 depending on calculation method. With the same GDP per capita, but much higher asset prices, it's no wonder that quality of life declined.

-----------------------------------

The short-term benefit to corporations of relaxed green objectives is less than that of a massive influx of labour, many of which became indentured consumers and renters.

Wage suppression, corporate rent-seeking behaviour, asset price inflation.

What sort of corporations benefited the most from the Trudeau administration's policies? Real estate, grocery stores, telecom etc... Those producing products with inelastic demand. "Pro-corporate in some of the worst ways."
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There's this sentiment on UT that Harper was a bad fiscal conservative, who privatized public assets like the Canadian Wheat Board, while subsidizing oil and gas, despite mostly running budget deficits. Trudeau was a well meaning, but flawed white knight who tried to redistribute money to the underprivileged, unlike evil Harper. The truth is much more complicated.

It would surprise many that business subsidies actually increased under Trudeau compared to Harper:

"Federal Business Subsidies: Explosive Growth Since 2014 [...] subsidies have risen 140 per cent over the nine years ending in 2023–24, compared to 17 per cent over the previous nine years."
1776273200323-png.729347


Financial support for the fossil fuel industry also increased when Trudeau took office as well (Environmental Defence definition).

I vastly oversimplify here, there's a difference between the first two and the latter two: investing in infrastructure and cutting taxes to stimulate business investment (Harper, Carney) vs. wage suppression and increasing corporate subsidies (Trudeau).

The trouble with corporate welfare is once you start, it's hard to stop. Not just due to lobbying, but because the companies become structurally reliant.
 

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Some admirable, but infeasible, like 100% EV sales by 2035. Others very flawed like the (industrial) carbon tax. Many in the know would say cap and trade used in EU and Quebec+California is much better.

Setting aside cronyism and corruption (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_political_scandals_in_Canada#Federal)...

Some of Trudeau's pro-corporate policies were indirect. If you're a homeowner with an above median wage job, you likely also benefited from said policies. To be blunt, many Urban Torontoers are out of touch with the worsening plight of the working class since 2015. Immigration policy helped make you house rich. Provided high rents for your rental property. Or better yet, provided cheap labour for your franchise restaurant who wouldn't report you for shorting them on overtime pay. Extremely common for recent immigrants to be paid below legal wage. Either undercounting hours, or not paying 1.5x after 44 hours. This is why I say "pro-corporate in some of the worst ways."

The theories that immigration was needed to prop up the economy or provide labour for residential construction are also bunk.
View attachment 729346

A lot of brouhaha by 2023, but the truth is, net migration had already doubled by 2018, with every year of Trudeau's premiership being higher than Harper's peak (except 2020). Furthermore, annual natural increase (births minus deaths) has always been positive since stats were recorded (to be fair, this trend may reverse soon).

If you consummately believe that economic growth is predicated on population growth... well the population would've grown with 0 net migration from natural increase alone. What instead happened was a reversal of GDP per capita. Falling back to 2012-2014 levels by 2023-2024 depending on calculation method. With the same GDP per capita, but much higher asset prices, it's no wonder that quality of life declined.

-----------------------------------

The short-term benefit to corporations of relaxed green objectives is less than that of a massive influx of labour, many of which became indentured consumers and renters.

Wage suppression, corporate rent-seeking behaviour, asset price inflation.

What sort of corporations benefited the most from the Trudeau administration's policies? Real estate, grocery stores, telecom etc... Those producing products with inelastic demand. "Pro-corporate in some of the worst ways."
------------------------------------

There's this sentiment on UT that Harper was a bad fiscal conservative, who privatized public assets like the Canadian Wheat Board, while subsidizing oil and gas, despite mostly running budget deficits. Trudeau was a well meaning, but flawed white knight who tried to redistribute money to the underprivileged, unlike evil Harper. The truth is much more complicated.

It would surprise many that business subsidies actually increased under Trudeau compared to Harper:

"Federal Business Subsidies: Explosive Growth Since 2014 [...] subsidies have risen 140 per cent over the nine years ending in 2023–24, compared to 17 per cent over the previous nine years."
1776273200323-png.729347


Financial support for the fossil fuel industry also increased when Trudeau took office as well (Environmental Defence definition).

I vastly oversimplify here, there's a difference between the first two and the latter two: investing in infrastructure and cutting taxes to stimulate business investment (Harper, Carney) vs. wage suppression and increasing corporate subsidies (Trudeau).

The trouble with corporate welfare is once you start, it's hard to stop. Not just due to lobbying, but because the companies become structurally reliant.

I agree with pretty much all of the above.

For business, I think the fair ask is to be free from arbitrary, and unnecessary regulation; and then, where feasible to examine tax policy changes or government policy changes that can reasonably lower the cost of inputs (labour or goods), rather than ever-lower Corporate tax rates, or handouts in the form of loans or grants, or very stilted tax credits.

In exchange for the above businesses need to treat their employees, especially entry level ones better.

For one moment, lets set aside 'living wage' ideas and simply note that traditionally most governments aimed to keep the minimum wage at around 60% of the median hourly wage.

By my reckoning that would be about $22 per hour in Ontario today, but instead, come October, we'll be at $17.95

Tough enough to try to get by on $22, imagine sub $18.

We also need to tighten up labour supply both to drive higher wages, but also greater investment in productivity which is low in Canada, in part, because cheap labour has become a preferred option.
 
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For one moment, lets set aside 'living wage' ideas and simply note that traditionally most governments aimed to keep the minimum wage at around 60% of the median hourly wage.

By my reckoning that would be about $22 per hour in Ontario today, but instead, come October, we'll be at $17.95.

Tough enough to try to get by on $22, imagine a mere $18.
The legal minimum wage potentially sits in the middle of two groups' minimum acceptable wages. Neutrally: those willing to accept lower than legal wages and those who would only accept higher than legal minimum wage. Immigration policy plays a role.

We also need to tighten up labour supply both to drive higher wages, but also greater investment in productivity which is low in Canada, in part, because cheap labour has become a preferred option.
It's being hypothesized that increased migrant labour--->businesses' preference for ever cheaper labour--->wage suppression is why minimum wage increases do not decrease employment as much as economists once believed, if at all.

Employers may already be willing to pay higher than the minimum wage, they just aren't forced to do so.

Here's an Ontario specific source for minimum wage not decreasing employment when it jumped from 11.60 to 14.00 in 2018.

As for why, stay tuned for that hypothesis to be tested...
 
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The legal minimum wage potentially sits in the middle of two groups' minimum acceptable wages. Neutrally: those willing to accept lower than legal wages and those who would only accept higher than legal minimum wage. Immigration policy plays a role.


It's being hypothesized that increased migrant labour--->businesses' preference for ever cheaper labour--->wage suppression is why minimum wage increases do not decrease employment as much as old school economists believed, if at all.

Employers may already be willing to pay higher than the minimum wage, they just aren't forced to do so.

Here's an Ontario specific source for minimum wage not decreasing employment when it jumped from 11.60 to 14.00 in 2018.

As for why, stay tuned for that hypothesis to be tested...

Seattle with the highest minimum wage in the U.S. at ~@$21 USD per hour (~$29 CAD) also has the highest labour force participation rate of major U.S. urban centres last I checked, well above the national U.S. average.

Its not hard to understand.

1) The first part is the incentive work when it incentive ok.

2) The second is the investment in productivity.

3) The third is that low income earners spend virtually every dollar they earn, so that juices sales volumes and the economy writ large.

4) It allows lower-middle income customers to trade up and tolerate higher prices/margins which offsets, in part, higher labour costs.

5) It also slows churn (employee turnover) and results in lower training and overtime costs.

Important for many to know, minimum wage employers typically have ultra low labour costs. As example in the fast food industry, labour is typically 12-18% of the cost of goods sold. So if you raised employee pay by 30%, and passed through the full cost it would be 5% (pre-mark up) to 10%. When you look at real world price impacts of high minimum wages in Seattle and California, you do seem some the impact, but its typically at the lower end of tghe range for reasons stated.
 
To follow up on the above.

In Seattle the cost of a Big Mac is $7.06 USD or $9.61 CAD

This compares to Toronto at ~$7.50 CAD So Seattle's version is 28% more expensive.

But the entry level wage is $21 USD, ~$29 CAD, vs $17.60 in Ontario

So the minimum wage is 64% higher.

The price impact is less than 1/2 the wage impact.

* Just to be clear, I'm grossly over simplifying as exchange rates fluctuate , markets have other variable costs, and purchasing power parity is a thing. But as a crude measure, the example holds.

Interesting link on Big Mac pricing, in cities across the U.S. (all prices in USD) and if you then go compare minimum wages, the disconnection will become apparent.

 

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