[1overcosc]

He will not. Hudak has made it very clear he's not cancelling Phase 1 of Ottawa LRT. In any case, it's impossible for him to do so. The province has already given the $600M check to the City of Ottawa, they've already cashed it and given it to the contractor, so he can't revoke funding. The project is being managed by the City of Ottawa, not the province, so he can't order a stop to construction either.

Phase 2 is the issue. The Liberals have promised funding, and Hudak (until very recently) said that he wouldn't fund it. He was very decisive too, saying "No, we can't afford that." A very stupid move, as there's 3 Liberal vs. PC battleground ridings that Phase 2 will run through. His own candidates & MPPs in Ottawa attacked him for it, including his otherwise loyal servant Lisa MacLeod. To add insult to injury, when Ottawa's mayor Jim Watson asked him about LRT directly, he completely ignored the question and went on about his million jobs plan. Watson is a very powerful figure in Ottawa, he's massively popular and he's got incredible political capital.

All in all, it was such a huge mistake for Hudak that he actually flip-flopped this afternoon! He announced that he will fund Phase 2 after the budget is balanced (same promise made to Toronto).

You know Hudak REALLY fucked up when he actually retracts.

For the record, here's Ottawa's LRT plan summary:
-Phase 1: Currently U/C, expected to be complete in 2018, costs $2.1B. A 13km line running entirely grade seperated from Blair Road to Tunney's Pasture.
-Phase 2: Currently being EA'ed, city hopes to start building in 2018 and finish in 2023, costs $3.0B. Adds an extra 35km of LRT, by extending the initial LRT east from Blair to Place D'Orleans, west from Tunney's to Algonquin College with a spur to Bayshore Mall, and also extends the O-Train south from its existing terminus in Greenboro to Bowesville Road. All entirely grade separated as well. (Ottawa's "LRT" is really more of a subway.. but that's a discussion for another thread)

 

[CapitalSeven]

Yes Tim boldly told Ottawa, where large numbers of public servants in the suburbs take transit and are demanding light rail extensions, that we can't afford to extend the network. Even though he's promising subways in Toronto even with a much lower cost-benefit ratio. This seems like an interesting approach to trying to win. He seem so ... already over.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Yes Tim boldly told Ottawa, where large numbers of public servants in the suburbs take transit and are demanding light rail extensions, that we can't afford to extend the network. Even though he's promising subways in Toronto even with a much lower cost-benefit ratio. This seems like an interesting approach to trying to win. He seem so ... already over.

This man loves to lose elections

Speaking of losers, 308 is again projecting a Liberal majority, in case any of you care.

 

[MrsNesbitt]

This man loves to lose elections

Speaking of losers, 308 is again projecting a Liberal majority, in case any of you care.

I have a certain inherent amount of trouble in believing that enough voters have resisted the frankly low attacks by the PCs and NDPs on the Liberals to give them a majority. Still, I'd be more than pleased if they did achieve that. Really as a transit enthusiast, as all of us here are, it's one of the best circumstances we could hope for.

 

[BurlOak]

Speaking of losers, 308 is again projecting a Liberal majority, in case any of you care.

If you look at the details, the last 4 polls all show the Liberals leading. These polls are by EKOS, EKOS, EKOS, and EKOS.

 

[doady]

If you look at the details, the last 4 polls all show the Liberals leading. These polls are by EKOS, EKOS, EKOS, and EKOS.

I guess Abacus is EKOS in disguise. Their names do sound sort of similar. The Abacus aka EKOS poll being commissioned by the Toronto Sun, the left-wing bias couldn't be more obvious.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

I guess Abacus is EKOS in disguise. Their names do sound sort of similar. The Abacus aka EKOS poll being commissioned by the Toronto Sun, the left-wing bias couldn't be more obvious.

I believe he's referring to this Abacus poll:
http://m.torontosun.com/2014/06/02/libs-seven-points-ahead-of-tories-poll

I don't believe that there's much evidence to support any of these pollsters fudging the results. It seems to me that they all just have different and imperfect formulas, which can account for the discrepancies we've seen.

 

[innsertnamehere]

EKOS was also one of the most accurate last election, they got the popular vote for the liberals down to the decimal point. (37.7%)

 

[Adjei]

If you look at the details, the last 4 polls all show the Liberals leading. These polls are by EKOS, EKOS, EKOS, and EKOS.

Every polling firm which has come out has the Liberals leading or tied. The only polling firm showing any PC lead is from Ipsos. So what is your point again?

 

[jje1000]

This man loves to lose elections

Speaking of losers, 308 is again projecting a Liberal majority, in case any of you care.

Still no time to assume victory for one side or the other. Remember to vote, and tell everyone you know to vote!

 

[gweed123]

Ah, it is Phase 2. I'm not sure what is in which phase.

Phase 1 is LRT from Blair to Tunney's Pasture via a downtown tunnel. The big projects in Phase 2 are a Western LRT extension from Tunney's to Baseline, a spur from Lincoln Fields to Bayshore, an Eastern LRT extension to Orleans, and O-Train upgrades and extension (but not electrification). There's also a few BRT projects in there.

If Hudak cancels the Provincial funding for Phase 2, I can honestly see the City going ahead and building Tunney's to Baseline anyway, because that's the segment that's most needed. Tunney's is a terrible terminus point, even if it's only temporary.

He will not. Hudak has made it very clear he's not cancelling Phase 1 of Ottawa LRT. In any case, it's impossible for him to do so. The province has already given the $600M check to the City of Ottawa, they've already cashed it and given it to the contractor, so he can't revoke funding. The project is being managed by the City of Ottawa, not the province, so he can't order a stop to construction either.

Phase 2 is the issue. The Liberals have promised funding, and Hudak (until very recently) said that he wouldn't fund it. He was very decisive too, saying "No, we can't afford that." A very stupid move, as there's 3 Liberal vs. PC battleground ridings that Phase 2 will run through. His own candidates & MPPs in Ottawa attacked him for it, including his otherwise loyal servant Lisa MacLeod. To add insult to injury, when Ottawa's mayor Jim Watson asked him about LRT directly, he completely ignored the question and went on about his million jobs plan. Watson is a very powerful figure in Ottawa, he's massively popular and he's got incredible political capital.

All in all, it was such a huge mistake for Hudak that he actually flip-flopped this afternoon! He announced that he will fund Phase 2 after the budget is balanced (same promise made to Toronto).

You know Hudak REALLY fucked up when he actually retracts.

Excellent analysis. Yes, it's borderline impossible for him to cancel the 1st Phase, unless he wants a cancellation pricetag that makes the gas plants look like minor land deal.

And yes, Hudak really screwed the pooch when he flat out said no. As I mentioned yesterday, Ottawa West-Nepean and Ottawa-Orleans are big battleground ridings right now, both of whom would receive the bulk of the Phase II improvements. People in both areas have been asking for the LRT, and asking for it as quickly as possible. Even saying "we'll fund it after the budget is balanced" isn't going to fly. If Chiarelli and Meilleur (I think she's the Orleans Liberal candidate) were smart they'd be campaigning at Baseline and Place d'Orleans stations telling people that if they elect Hudak, the LRT ain't coming.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

If Hudak cancels the Provincial funding for Phase 2, I can honestly see the City going ahead and building Tunney's to Baseline anyway, because that's the segment that's most needed. Tunney's is a terrible terminus point, even if it's only temporary.

If the rumors are true, and that there will be a second round of cuts/downloading to the municipalities - I highly doubt any city would be in the position to build anything.

AoD

 

[gweed123]

If the rumors are true, and that there will be a second round of cuts/downloading to the municipalities - I highly doubt any city would be in the position to build anything.

AoD

Good point. At this point though, Ottawa has confirmed that it can afford to fund $1 billion of the $3 billion plan itself. The last estimate I heard for the Tunney's to Baseline stretch was $950 million.

And can the Provincial government go through with all that downloading with only a minority? I thought that kind of a change needed some kind of vote in the Legislature. A PC minority right now is still a possibility, but the polls would have to either be hugely wrong or there would need to be a huge swing in order for a PC majority to be within reach.

 

[rbt]

And can the Provincial government go through with all that downloading with only a minority? I thought that kind of a change needed some kind of vote in the Legislature.

It's possible this could get through in the first budget for the winner. The party which forced an election in July 2014 would very likely take a substantial hit at the polls unless the downloading move was hugely unpopular with the general public.

If PCs win on balancing the budget and they can show the fastest way to do this is by downloading city services to cities (housing and transit files for example), it may actually solidify their rural seats.

Heck, PCs could even keep control at the province and just download the funding component.



It's hard to predict what would happen if the NDP voted against it. Official Opposition (whom I assume is Liberal) is expected to vote against the budget. A Liberal majority at the cost of NDP seats may be the result.

If the NDP vote in favour, or abstained, on such an action then they may be stuck supporting the Conservatives for a number of years until their voter base either forgets or forgives.

I don't see much of a downside to the PC Party for trying.

 

[StatGeek]

Yes Tim boldly told Ottawa, where large numbers of public servants in the suburbs take transit and are demanding light rail extensions, that we can't afford to extend the network. Even though he's promising subways in Toronto even with a much lower cost-benefit ratio. This seems like an interesting approach to trying to win. He seem so ... already over.

His anti-LRT stance seems really odd province wide (who don't have subway) It might work in a spoiled Toronto suburb who see downtown nessesary subway and scream "me too me too, no alternative" But other major Ontario cities who see LRT as their only option for Grade-A transit listening to Ford and Hudak (Fordak) saying LRT is second class must wonder "So what the hell do you think of us?"

My gosh were the Ipsos guys were pathetic on debate night cheerleading Hudak, I don't think Ipsos are fudging their numbers. But their analysis of the numbers are certainly trying to push perception to a pro-conservative side to make it seem like they are correct.

308 in the past few weeks have had majorities for PC, Libs, PC and back to Libs and everywhere in between. I think 308 is okay but I think they put too much emphasis in whatever the last poll says and swing their numbers too much (a mistake a lot of people do as just look at whatever the last poll says) it's kinda like kids playing soccer, if the ball kicked to the left or right, everyone runs to that section and the correct way of doing it is seeing a trend and average it out and weighting polls that have been most correct in the past.

As for the debate, I wish we could stop talking about who won and who lost by presentation and "zingers" and actually look at important things like who's lying and who's not. I like politico truth meter in the States with truth to gray area to pants on fire.