salsa
Senior Member
Unless that person plans to vote PC
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- Thread starter Solid Snake
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Unless that person plans to vote PC
Interesting analysis. One of the things that could potentially happen is the Liberals and NDP using the mere threat of a coalition to extract some concessions from Hudak (scrapping the really really damaging stuff), in exchange for supporting the budget. If Hudak does get a minority, I suspect the Libs and the NDP may let him run with it, but keep him from doing the really long term damaging stuff. That way he can shoot himself in the foot and come next election one of the two gets into power.
Reminds me of a great quote I heard a while ago: "Every now and then we need a conservative government to remind us that we don't want a conservative government."
TOareaFan
Superstar
Speaking of first budgets......heard a really interesting discussion on the radio yesterday as I drove to Niagara.
What happens in a Liberal minority? Kathleen Wynne (in a very strongly worded promise) has said that within 20 days of winning (so by July 2nd I guess) the house will be recalled and the exact same budget that was presented will be re-introduced (no variance the same one).
In that event, what do the other parties do? This is the budget that brought down the house ....the one that neither the NDP nor the PCs supported....the budget that was the cause of the election gets re-introduced exactly the same.....does one of the opposition parties (presumably the NDP) now find a way to support the budget? How does that sell to the public when we eventually go back to the polls?
What happens in a Liberal minority? Kathleen Wynne (in a very strongly worded promise) has said that within 20 days of winning (so by July 2nd I guess) the house will be recalled and the exact same budget that was presented will be re-introduced (no variance the same one).
In that event, what do the other parties do? This is the budget that brought down the house ....the one that neither the NDP nor the PCs supported....the budget that was the cause of the election gets re-introduced exactly the same.....does one of the opposition parties (presumably the NDP) now find a way to support the budget? How does that sell to the public when we eventually go back to the polls?
AlvinofDiaspar
Moderator
TOareafan:
I bet you NDP will fold - Horwath is already in deep sh*t for bringing down the government and the knives will be out for her from a good chunk of the core party supporters, especially since it lead to a scenario that is more or less where they started from.
AoD
I bet you NDP will fold - Horwath is already in deep sh*t for bringing down the government and the knives will be out for her from a good chunk of the core party supporters, especially since it lead to a scenario that is more or less where they started from.
AoD
I think the NDP will support it. It was pretty much their wet dream budget to begin with, and it was quite clear that they brought it down over who put it forward, not what was in it.
If the Liberals do win another minority, the people have spoken, so there isn't the same "the Liberals needs to be held accountable" mantra around QP. The NDP would then be free to support the budget. If Horwath didn't support it, she'd be booted out as leader very very quickly.
AlvinofDiaspar
Moderator
gweed:
I don't see a good climbdown for Horwath at all - though for long-term stability Wynne might want to swing back closer to the centre more.
AoD
I don't see a good climbdown for Horwath at all - though for long-term stability Wynne might want to swing back closer to the centre more.
AoD
Horwath has done the swing to the centre for her, which I agree isn't going to bode well for her. I think the hardliner NDPers are going to to really make their voices heard next leadership race, which could be in the next few months if Horwath loses seats after calling the election. There isn't much electable space remaining to the left of Wynne, but I'm sure the NDP will find it. Wynne will probably ultimately have to swing a bit back to the centre, somewhere between current her and McGuinty.
And here's hoping the PCs ditch Hudak and find someone to put the P back in PC. Although with the Ontario Landowners Association seemingly pulling the strings there these days, that seems unlikely. The PCs will probably end up with another Reformacon instead of a legitimately PC candidate. Until they realize they're not going to win much of the urban vote with Reform style politics, they'll be either the opposition or restricted to a minority government. When you look at Hudak both this election and last, he won/is predicted to win very few ridings aside from the ones that would elect a fence post as long as it was painted blue.
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AlvinofDiaspar
Moderator
gweed:
Indeed - I thought Witmer would be a good choice to bring the P back to the PCs.
AoD
Indeed - I thought Witmer would be a good choice to bring the P back to the PCs.
AoD
nfitz
Superstar
Witmer would indeed have been a great choice. But she didn't run. The most progressive candidate last time was Christine Elliott of all people. Heck, the person who finished second was even further right than Hudak!
I really don't think there's much sign of the Conservatives moving away from the extreme-right for some time.
jje1000
Senior Member
Dream scenario.
Minority Liberal government. Hudak and his far-right core gets booted. Transit gets the funding it needs for the DRL and GO Electrification to begin construction. A centrist-slightly-right PC candidate along the lines of Bill Davis gets in and cleans house in the next election. The Liberals then clean their own house and recoup.
The NDP, well, I haven't accounted for them.
AlvinofDiaspar
Moderator
That would be a dream scenario for me too indeed.
AoD
AoD
nfitz
Superstar
And who would this dream candidate be? The PC party has already cleansed anyone who isn't far right ... look what they did to Tory.
Given they've got the likes of Hillier and Klees still considered potential leadership candidates, Hudak IS the centrist!
Given they've got the likes of Hillier and Klees still considered potential leadership candidates, Hudak IS the centrist!
gabe
Senior Member
I agree. There is enough people out there that believe in Tea Party style politics. They will divide the PC's like the Tea Party did to the Republican Party. The more moderate Conservative candidates in the PC's may not survive much longer if the party continues moving more to the right.
nfitz
Superstar
Ultimately though, it will self-destruct. They'll become so extremely right that they'll dwindle to nothing, and something else will take their place. Can you imagine Hillier as leader?
It's looking like a Hudak government of one sort or another. So that will delay the self-destruction for a while ... but ultimately it's not sustainable ... and they'll continue slowly down the path that Miller set them on.
Tewder
Senior Member
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