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MTown said:
I know. I've already said, I want my money back.

This is, again, "saving money" by spending it.
Click to expand...
Trudeau just announced he's cutting the Carbon Tax - essentially confirming the Conservative policy that Canada can't implement one unless the US does.
Maybe Trudeau will back down completely on this Carbon Tax since it's now become obvious that the Tax hurts jobs, and the Tax has nothing to do with the environment.
 
BurlOak said:
... Carbon Tax since it's now become obvious that the Tax hurts jobs, and the Tax has nothing to do with the environment.
Click to expand...

Maybe, but automation and being able to make stuff in China and pay workers there a lot less than they are paid here hurt jobs a lot more.
Regulations in Canada are more stringent than other countries so add that in. That includes pesky things like workplace safety and employee benefits.

Neither automation nor China are going to change no matter who's in government so Ford can talk all the job creation he wants but he'd better be prepared to invest in specialized jobs because that's all we're going to get. Craft breweries and wineries won't create enough jobs as much as we love them. He should hope his hero Trump doesn't follow through on his foreign car tariffs or that there isn't a slump in construction or there will be a lot of unemployed people looking to blame the government, and the carbon tax business won't matter.
 
Needs to be updated with Doug Ford's contribution ("Ontario News Now"):

38284563_2602420753102220_4173278936790204416_o.jpg

From link.
 
BurlOak said:
Trudeau just announced he's cutting the Carbon Tax - essentially confirming the Conservative policy that Canada can't implement one unless the US does.
Maybe Trudeau will back down completely on this Carbon Tax since it's now become obvious that the Tax hurts jobs, and the Tax has nothing to do with the environment.
Click to expand...

"The tax hurts jobs"?

How does one hurt jobs? I wanna try.

Petrol prices are at their highest ever and I'm about to get the fattest pay rise of my career. Damn carbon tax is buuuuurning.

I swear we went over this in the winter in the context of the minimum wage hike: only fool or greedy businesses don't know how to adapt to increased input costs without resorting to cutting themselves off at the knee by cutting labour.

Survival of the fittest! Isn't that what capitalism is all about?

Look, I'm a bit of a libertarian, so I understand wanting freedom to do with self as one pleases without hindrance, but I also understand that if we don't smarten up, then there won't be any freedom.
You can't eat "jobs".
 
MTown said:
"The tax hurts jobs"?

How does one hurt jobs? I wanna try.

Petrol prices are at their highest ever and I'm about to get the fattest pay rise of my career. Damn carbon tax is buuuuurning.

I swear we went over this in the winter in the context of the minimum wage hike: only fool or greedy businesses don't know how to adapt to increased input costs without resorting to cutting themselves off at the knee by cutting labour.

Survival of the fittest! Isn't that what capitalism is all about?

Look, I'm a bit of a libertarian, so I understand wanting freedom to do with self as one pleases without hindrance, but I also understand that if we don't smarten up, then there won't be any freedom.
You can't eat "jobs".
Click to expand...

Actually wrong. From link:

canada-gasoline-prices.png

Note, prices in United States dollars per litre.
 
BurlOak said:
What I'm most surprised with is that Oil is up 50% ($45 to $68) in the past 2.75 years, yet the Canadian Dollar is flat at $0.67.

http://www.fedprimerate.com/crude-oil-price-history.htm
https://www.exchange-rates.org/Rate/USD/CAD/10-19-2015
Click to expand...
It certainly lends itself to a number of possible answers. The obvious one has to be cost of production for bitumen, and a second overly-convenient one is lack of pipelines, the latter the Market concluding something quite apart from "build it and they will come" and "assurances" that the government(s) will back that.

A good part of the CAD story is trade and economic backlash from the Trumpster. That, however, should make Cdn produced product even more competitive. There's obviously more complexity to the story than the 'usual suspects'.
 
BurlOak said:
Trudeau just announced he's cutting the Carbon Tax - essentially confirming the Conservative policy that Canada can't implement one unless the US does.
Maybe Trudeau will back down completely on this Carbon Tax since it's now become obvious that the Tax hurts jobs, and the Tax has nothing to do with the environment.
Click to expand...
Electoral reform promise, broken. Carbon tax promise, broken. Balanced budgets will be next.
 
BurlOak said:
What I'm most surprised with is that Oil is up 50% ($45 to $68) in the past 2.75 years, yet the Canadian Dollar is flat at $0.67.

http://www.fedprimerate.com/crude-oil-price-history.htm
https://www.exchange-rates.org/Rate/USD/CAD/10-19-2015
Click to expand...


I let this slip for a little bit.......shrugging off the incorrect currency valuation as simple transposition.

1 CAD is currently .76 USD.

But as this post got quoted, it got me thinking. I did what I do and pulled the research.

So. Peak value for our currency (in the last decade) was $1.04 USD.

At that time the value of WTI (our oil) was $160.00 per barrel.

The value of our oil bottomed out at $30USD

A decrease of more than 80%

During this decline, the Canadian dollar went to a low of .69USD in almost perfect synch.

That's a decline of 39%

So, almost perfectly 1/2 the rate of decline of oil.

That establishes our current co-relation rate (whether that rate makes any sense is a completely different discussion)

If one then examines the gains in oil the increase is roughly 130% from trough to current peak. (put another way, it reverses out 27.5% of the decline)

The currency, in the same period is .69c to .76c up slightly more than 10%.

Not flat, though certainly tracking below expectations at first blush.

So I went and looked to see the last time the dollar was trading in this range.

As it occurred to me that the previous peak was in part feverish speculation with talk of $200 oil.

The dollar was last at .77c USD in March 2009.

At which time oil was $58.82 per barrel.

This suggests less of a lag, but still a lag.

Now, of course, that excludes all other factors.

All other things being equal, national interest rates have a substantial factor on currency value.

The US Fed has upped rates more aggressively than Canada's central bank creating a differential of 0.5% which on a base of 1.5% (vs 2%) is not immaterial.

That could easily account for some suppression of value.

But here's one more thought on this.........

Natwest Markets has exchange forecasts posted online. They project by 2020 (less than 2yrs away) a rate of just over .83c CAD , that would be highly correlative, if you assume oil trades in the current range.
 
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Admiral Beez said:
Continued to be broken, I’m afraid.

Via The Star:

“During the fall election campaign, Trudeau promised to keep deficits below the $10-billion mark in 2016-17 and 2017-18 unless the economic situation got radically worse.”
Click to expand...

I won't disagree this promise, among others, was broken.

As to the future.

That's a political call in many respects.

Based on the current value of oil and the currency, Q2 GDP growth and the state of the Federal gov't books for the first 2 months, I would say balance is well within reach.

That doesn't mean they will reach it, of course.

I expect them to spend some of the 'windfall' as an election approaches.

The question is then how much? vs The extent of the economic story.

I think they would do well to read into the final gasps of the Wynne era that spending is popular enough IF you deliver on it in real time.

But if you run deficits on an ethereal promise of a better day......that might be trouble.
 
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