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I'm skeptical of this poll. I think Ford still gets reelected unless Liberals manage to find a media-savvy leader that can feed the journalists' need for sensational headlines.

Even if the poll were accurate there's still the FPTP and vote splitting so the Conservatives can get 30% of overall votes and still get the most seats.
 
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Avenue said:
I'm skeptical of this poll. I think Ford still gets reelected unless Liberals manage to find a media-savvy that can feed the journalists' need for sensational headlines.

Even if the poll were accurate there's still the FPTP and vote splitting so the Conservatives can get 30% of overall votes and still get the most seats.
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Which poll? All of them show Ford to be a loser, in any and all respects, including human traits.

Take your pick:
https://www.google.ca/search?q=doug...39j0j1&client=ubuntu&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
 
Avenue said:
Even if the poll were accurate there's still the FPTP and vote splitting so the Conservatives can get 30% of overall votes and still get the most seats.
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Not plausible.

Ford may or may not get reelected (please no); but no party has ever won a majority government in Ontario at 30% of the vote, the lowest is in the range of 37%.

A viable Green Vote, could, conceivably lower than number a bit, but not as low as 30%.

I don't believe any of the other parties could ever support a Ford-led minority government, so the possibility of a mere plurality of seats is moot.
 
Videodrome said:
Still not good,
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Although polls are as predictable as the weather, I do see a distinct possibility of the Greens and NDP forming a coalition, informal or otherwise, next election.

Ontarians unable to vote for the 'status quo' and still unable to vote for the 'Dippers' could vote Green if the stage is set before the election to allow people to 'not waste their vote' by the Greens and NDP running candidates strategically.
 
Avenue said:
I'm skeptical of this poll. I think Ford still gets reelected unless Liberals manage to find a media-savvy leader that can feed the journalists' need for sensational headlines.
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I can see the *Tories* getting reelected--but not necessarily with Ford at the helm.

And re "Doug Ford is no Trump": one quality that Trump has, and Rob Ford had, but Doug Ford hasn't, is a certain "touch the hem of his garment" quality. He just doesn't seem that, shall we say, "God-given", except maybe as his brother's emissary...
 
What I'd like to know is what are the PCs' internal polls indicating to them about their popularity with their base. As a self-professed policy wonk, I have yet to see a betrayal of trust strategy wise that the Ford government has enacted on the roughly 40% of Ontarians whom backed them in the last election. Getting these big ticket agenda items out the way early on in their mandate seems clever to me. By 2022, when these new changes will be in full effect most likely a lot of the panicking of today will be long settled and too out of the news cycle for people to even care.
 
Hopkins123 said:
What I'd like to know is what are the PCs' internal polls indicating to them about their popularity with their base. As a self-professed policy wonk, I have yet to see a betrayal of trust strategy wise that the Ford government has enacted on the roughly 40% of Ontarians whom backed them in the last election. Getting these big ticket agenda items out the way early on in their mandate seems clever to me. By 2022, when these new changes will be in full effect most likely a lot of the panicking of today will be long settled and too out of the news cycle for people to even care.
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They are ruining peoples lives.

The word of mouth is killing them.
 
Hopkins123 said:
What I'd like to know is what are the PCs' internal polls indicating to them about their popularity with their base. As a self-professed policy wonk, I have yet to see a betrayal of trust strategy wise that the Ford government has enacted on the roughly 40% of Ontarians whom backed them in the last election. Getting these big ticket agenda items out the way early on in their mandate seems clever to me. By 2022, when these new changes will be in full effect most likely a lot of the panicking of today will be long settled and too out of the news cycle for people to even care.
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The roughly 40% is not "their base", much less Ford's base.

Also IIRC Mike Harris never collapsed to that level of raw rejection.
 
Hopkins123 said:
What I'd like to know is what are the PCs' internal polls indicating to them about their popularity with their base. As a self-professed policy wonk, I have yet to see a betrayal of trust strategy wise that the Ford government has enacted on the roughly 40% of Ontarians whom backed them in the last election. Getting these big ticket agenda items out the way early on in their mandate seems clever to me. By 2022, when these new changes will be in full effect most likely a lot of the panicking of today will be long settled and too out of the news cycle for people to even care.
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The turnout was 58% of eligible voters; 40% of the turnout went to PC candidates - so the PCs received the votes of 23% of eligible voters (23% of Ontarians, if you prefer that term).
 
pud99 said:
The turnout was 58% of eligible voters; 40% of the turnout went to PC candidates - so the PCs received the votes of 23% of eligible voters (23% of Ontarians, if you prefer that term).
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Yes, which is still up significantly from the 51.3 percent of Ontarians whom bothered to vote in 2014. Was Kathleen Wynne's Liberal majority not illegitimate too in your view then or do these standards only factor in when a right-wing party is victorious?

The apathetic demonstrate by their lack of voting acquiescence with the expected outcome of the election. They weren't motivated enough to vote to block Ford from winning or assumed he'd win anyway so didn't figure they even needed to cast a ballot for the PCs to affect the results. For all we know, another 20-30% of the population could have been backing the PCs. Many still do and without a credible opposition waiting in the wings to dethrone the PCs, they will for certainly win again. Even if it's a minority it'll still just be a couple seats off of a majority based on today's polling samples.

Again (borrowing from what I said in the other thread) outside of Toronto, Ottawa and the 2 Thunder Bay ridings, where are you guys seeing this Liberal comeback?
 
Hopkins123 said:
Yes, which is still up significantly from the 51.3 percent of Ontarians whom bothered to vote in 2014. Was Kathleen Wynne's Liberal majority not illegitimate too in your view then or do these standards only factor in when a right-wing party is victorious?

The apathetic demonstrate by their lack of voting acquiescence with the expected outcome of the election. They weren't motivated enough to vote to block Ford from winning or assumed he'd win anyway so didn't figure they even needed to cast a ballot for the PCs to affect the results. For all we know, another 20-30% of the population could have been backing the PCs. Many still do and without a credible opposition waiting in the wings to dethrone the PCs, they will for certainly win again. Even if it's a minority it'll still just be a couple seats off of a majority based on today's polling samples.

Again (borrowing from what I said in the other thread) outside of Toronto, Ottawa and the 2 Thunder Bay ridings, where are you guys seeing this Liberal comeback?
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The total combined seats in Toronto, Ottawa and Thunder Bay is 35 which puts the Liberals back in contention. They need to find a way to get GTA seats back.
 
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