[micheal_can]

Doug Ford assumed office as Prime Minister of Ontario on June 29, 2018. O-Train Stage 2 (i.e., the city‘s largest expansion of its urban rail transit network) was approved on March 6, 2019, so almost 9 months (and certainly one provincial budget) later. Not sure how much funding the province has contributed, but the growth rate of Ottawa‘s urban rail transit network has been growing under Doug Ford‘s watch by an even more impressive rate than Toronto‘s…

The saving grace for Ottawa is most of it is above ground and the ROW already exists. That makes the transition to rail much easier.

 

[guavadelic]

And no, they're not equally important. High Speed Rail to London is nowhere near as important as anything we're building in Toronto right now.

Maybe not as important, but I'd argue fast, electric rail (200khp) to London through the Kitchener corridor is absolutely needed in the near future. Factors driving this would be shrinking highway capacity and mismatch of housing affordability and jobs.

Project is quickly going from a "nice-to-have" to "need to have".

 

[ARG1]

Maybe not as important, but I'd argue fast, electric rail (200khp) to London through the Kitchener corridor is absolutely needed in the near future. Factors driving this would be shrinking highway capacity and mismatch of housing affordability and jobs.

Project is quickly going from a "nice-to-have" to "need to have".

I do agree, I'm not saying it shouldn't be built, but rather that it was the wrong thing to focus on back in 2018. Now that it's 7 years later, one could argue that now is probably the time to start discussing it, so that we can start building it once current GO Expansion projects start wrapping up (perhaps that's what GO 2.0 is about?)

 

[roger1818]

Doug Ford assumed office as Prime Minister of Ontario on June 29, 2018. O-Train Stage 2 (i.e., the city‘s largest expansion of its urban rail transit network) was approved on March 6, 2019, so almost 9 months (and certainly one provincial budget) later. Not sure how much funding the province has contributed, but the growth rate of Ottawa‘s urban rail transit network has been growing under Doug Ford‘s watch by an even more impressive rate than Toronto‘s…

The province funded less than 1/3 of the construction cost and will pay for 0% of the operating cost of the O-Train Stage 2, as originally planned.

Meanwhile for the Eglinton Crosstown LRT, the province is funding 100% of the construction costs and 100% of the operationg costs.

 

[micheal_can]

Maybe not as important, but I'd argue fast, electric rail (200khp) to London through the Kitchener corridor is absolutely needed in the near future. Factors driving this would be shrinking highway capacity and mismatch of housing affordability and jobs.

Project is quickly going from a "nice-to-have" to "need to have".

HSR is needed between London - Montreal now. The fact that slow downs occur regularly regardless of time of day is all the proof I need to say it is needed now. Those traffic issues will only get worse. The only saving grace is the 407 which allows you to bypass some of it. For a London - Toronto - Ottawa - Montreal route, we are looking at around 800km. This is about the same length as the currently under construction California High Speed Rail project that is expected to take about 15 years to build.

So, in 2040, if we did this, and started now, we could have what is needed.

 

[kEiThZ]

You may want to take a closer look at CAHSR as the (to the best of my knowledge) only HSR project worldwide pursued at a sub-federal level…

Not sure that's a fair comparison. First off, differences in governance between countries. Next, California is the fifth or sixth largest economy in the world. Bigger than many countries that built HSR. Finally, a lot of the failures are unique to California, not because it's a state. But because of geography, poor project management, etc.

 

[kEiThZ]

The Liberals have allowed this project to scope-creep to a point where it certainly can‘t „100% happen“, as neither the federal government nor the private investors have $40+ billion lying around to pay for it. That said, there certainly is enough fat to cut away to still fund and build something much more modest as a „Stage 1“, thus allowing PP to not just humiliate the Liberals by „by cutting through Liberal waste“ but also by „actually getting things done instead of lofty, but unfullfilled Liberal promises“.

My prediction is that neither 100% nor 0% of the lofty promises we are hearing from the VIA HFR-TGF folks and their political masters will happen, but maybe 10-20%. A 200 km/h fast Montreal-Ottawa corridor with hourly service which can be built within 5 years and will form the foundation of any future HSR network would certainly not be the worst-possible outcome…

I think this project has been designed a bit backwards.

They need to setup phases. No reason Montreal-Quebec needs to happen the same time as Toronto-Ottawa-Montreal. And they need to set targets that drive their design. It's not clear that HFR vs HSR option provides the room for that. Ideally, you would want to achieve a travel time that maximizes revenue while minimizing cost. This will not be 2.5 hrs HSR. But it probably isn't 5 hr HFR either. I would love to know what kind of hybrid option has been allowed.

 

[robmausser]

I think this project has been designed a bit backwards.

They need to setup phases. No reason Montreal-Quebec needs to happen the same time as Toronto-Ottawa-Montreal. And they need to set targets that drive their design. It's not clear that HFR vs HSR option provides the room for that. Ideally, you would want to achieve a travel time that maximizes revenue while minimizing cost. This will not be 2.5 hrs HSR. But it probably isn't 5 hr HFR either. I would love to know what kind of hybrid option has been allowed.

Unfortunately it does. Quebec won't agree to any project that has a Toronto - Montreal phase 1 and a Montreal - Quebec Phase 2. They explicitly stated that they will block and not greenlight any project that has more than 50% of tracks in Ontario. I'm not joking, look it up. This was a big problem, the original HFR plan was just Toronto to Montreal. Province of Quebec said absolutely no way.

So unfortunately its an all or nothing situation. Unless you want a phase 1 that is just Windsor to Ottawa, but something tells me that it would make Quebec even more mad, although they couldn't block it.

Considering its looking like the Bloc party will be the opposition party next election cycle, I think it will be an even harder sell.

Answering everyone elses comments in a more roundabout way, i'm almost wondering if a better approach to HSR would be to have the provinces fund and build each section of the project, (with federal funding help of course) and just commit to an agreement of standardization.

So, Ontario builds a Windsor to Ottawa HSR system, and Quebec builds a Montreal to QC HSR system, on their own.

And then we have a much cheaper and less politically contentious Phase 3 where we connect Ottawa to Montreal.

 

[Urban Sky]

Unfortunately it does. Quebec won't agree to any project that has a Toronto - Montreal phase 1 and a Montreal - Quebec Phase 2. They explicitly stated that they will block and not greenlight any project that has more than 50% of tracks in Ontario. I'm not joking, look it up.

Excuse me, what? Who said that and what levers do they have to force the inclusion of MTRL-QBEC? Even if they refuse to issue permits for HxR unless such ridiculous demands are met (note that only a QBEC-MTRL-OTTW-TRTO routing via Gatineau could plausibly achieve such a split!), then Stage 1 becomes Toronto-Ottawa and the problem is solved!

This was a big problem, the original HFR plan was just Toronto to Montreal. Province of Quebec said absolutely no way.

Yes, political and economic leaders in Quebec have successfully lobbied to get HFR extended beyond Montreal, whereas those in SWO told VIA publicly to back off and don‘t interfere with Wynne‘s insincere HSR election stunt, but again, what leverage do they hold?

 

[chrisw]

And they need to set targets that drive their design. It's not clear that HFR vs HSR option provides the room for that. Ideally, you would want to achieve a travel time that maximizes revenue while minimizing cost. This will not be 2.5 hrs HSR. But it probably isn't 5 hr HFR either. I would love to know what kind of hybrid option has been allowed.

Well the bidders did have latitude to decide how much they wanted to spend for their HSR proposal. It could be hybrid, the only differentiation with the HSR proposal is that you have different rolling stock that can go faster. You can still optimize on cost.

 

[kEiThZ]

Well the bidders did have latitude to decide how much they wanted to spend for their HSR proposal. It could be hybrid, the only differentiation with the HSR proposal is that you have different rolling stock that can go faster. You can still optimize on cost.

What matters is the bid criteria. The government asking for two different bids doesn't fill me with confidence there's room for a real hybrid.

 

[micheal_can]

What matters is the bid criteria. The government asking for two different bids doesn't fill me with confidence there's room for a real hybrid.

We could see that the things outside of a straighter ROW for HSR is left for a future expansion. Mind you, the section that Via already owns between Ottawa and Montreal is pretty straight.

 

[crs1026]

What matters is the bid criteria. The government asking for two different bids doesn't fill me with confidence there's room for a real hybrid.

That's true, but a wise bidder might find a way of scaling or phasing or modularising the high end option so that if there were sticker shock, it could be delivered gradually.

The obvious example would be the idea of a section of new HSR-capable ROW linking other sections of HFR row built on existing lines (e.g. HFR to Havelock, HSR capable to Glen Tay, then HFR to Ottawa). In the short term, the HSR section might not deliver HSR because the equipment available isn't capable of it.... but it might be OK for 125 mph while the HFR sections are delivered at 110mph. Some future project can upgrade the 110 portions and/or add further new build, and when enough has been upgraded the full 190 mph standard can be implemented end to end with higher grade rolling stock.. Any new track construction would benefit from being HSR friendly, as a matter of futureproofing, even if HSR is not the immediate goal.

The request for a HSR bid is probably a good thing..... not because it will happen, but certainly because some factions will argue for it, and the comparison of firm price points will be crucial to demonstrating that HSR may be beyond affordability. If there were no HSR bids, the pro-HSR faction would be able to continue to argue for it as a hypothetical without being held to a realistic cost number. This puts all the cards on the table, kind of.

- Paul

 

[Urban Sky]

What matters is the bid criteria. The government asking for two different bids doesn't fill me with confidence there's room for a real hybrid.

Quick reminder that the sole purpose of the RFP was to select the most suitable project developer and to collect intellectual property (from all participating bidders) which can be used as inspiration and data when designing the actual project during the pre-development phase. The bids won’t determine the project scope, which won’t be known for another 3 or more years (*sigh* … if ever)…

 

[robmausser]

If there were no HSR bids, the pro-HSR faction would be able to continue to argue for it as a hypothetical without being held to a realistic cost number.

- Paul

I know many many people who have zero care for the cost of things or anything to do with money. It could cost 700 trillion dollars, they would still advocate for it.