afransen
Senior Member
I'm pretty sure any gains on the 401 would be offset by growth and latent demand in the mean time.
|
|
|
- Thread starter Haljackey
- Start date
T-Bor
Active Member
Of course. But this growth in population and related vehicles on the road will occur with or without additional highways built.
innsertnamehere
Superstar
The same study I linked specifically identifies that the 401 at Hurontario would go from 13,005 vehicles at PM Peak hour (a capacity of 99%) without the 413 to 11,788 vehicles at PM peak hour, a capacity of 89%.
So the 413 would divert about 1,200 vehicles from the central 401 vs. without it. About a 9% reduction in volume.
the same study identified a freeway lane as having a capacity of 2,200 vehicles an hour. So it diverts the equivalent of 1/2 of a vehicle lane of capacity. Not much.
Which is why it's often far better and more efficient to widen existing corridors. adding one through-lane to the 401 would have more congestion relief on the 401 corridor than the 413 would.
So the 413 would divert about 1,200 vehicles from the central 401 vs. without it. About a 9% reduction in volume.
the same study identified a freeway lane as having a capacity of 2,200 vehicles an hour. So it diverts the equivalent of 1/2 of a vehicle lane of capacity. Not much.
Which is why it's often far better and more efficient to widen existing corridors. adding one through-lane to the 401 would have more congestion relief on the 401 corridor than the 413 would.
T-Bor
Active Member
Legit question - how far out in time do these studies go?
I just conceptually find it hard to believe that 30/40/50 years from now, with Brampton/Caledon/Mississauga continuing to expand outwards, having another highway (413) isn't going to make a major difference in travel time
innsertnamehere
Superstar
The study is from 2013 and studied at a 2031 time frame.
Obviously the further out you go, the worse it would become.
My understanding is that the province has updated projections to 2041 which show worse traffic again, but still better with the 413 than without it. These projections are not publicly available however.
it's the reason that the province is looking at the 401 tunnel now. Even with the 413, with the amount of growth the GTA is experiencing, the traffic relief the 413 provides only last a few years until everything is congested again.
Obviously the further out you go, the worse it would become.
My understanding is that the province has updated projections to 2041 which show worse traffic again, but still better with the 413 than without it. These projections are not publicly available however.
it's the reason that the province is looking at the 401 tunnel now. Even with the 413, with the amount of growth the GTA is experiencing, the traffic relief the 413 provides only last a few years until everything is congested again.
Last edited:
Undead
Senior Member
No, this is a policy choice that can (and must) be undone with a stroke of the pen.
T-Bor
Active Member
....population growth is a policy choice that can be undone with the stroke of a pen?
I'd point out that the GTA was expanding by about 100,000 people per year before the post-COVID population surge. These people need to live somewhere, and most of that growth is in suburban areas.
innsertnamehere
Superstar
that depends a lot on your ability to actually shift modal shares.
I've done the math before, but at the population growth rates we are experiencing transit ridership in the GTA would need to see something like 30% annual ridership growth every year, with no gaps, in order to entirely offset auto trip growth. And that has nothing to do with improving over existing congestion levels.
We absolutely need to minimize auto trip growth as much as possible, and in fact are generally doing a better job than the assumptions in the original 413 study (which is great news!) - but we need basically impossible levels of transit growth to entirely offset new auto trips created through population growth.
And as great as it is that we are seeing transit ridership growth faster than expected, we are also growing much faster than originally expected as a whole. We need new transit infrastructure, and lots of it. But we also need new roads.
rdaner
Senior Member
Really?! Define ‘most.’
afransen
Senior Member
I suspect traffic engineering studies are about 80% BS pseudoscience where the conclusion is always 'build more lanes'.
Sunnyside
Active Member
I was curious if the numbers had been ran!
The challenge is plainly that we need approximately 500 different things done and only finite things can be done- both transit or highways. And it’s very, very hard to coordinate the two because they are so separated. Add in land use and we have three disconnected systems that NEED each other to deliver when it comes down to the wire.
Luckily I do think the day is fast approaching. This siloing and it’s shortcomings are being talked about much more.
If, by some miracle, we can reform ourselves to actually build the amount of infrastructure we need, we might just come out the other side on par with the best in the western world. But we are in quite a pickle.
Sunnyside
Active Member
I can assure you that planners are just as pseudoscientific when it comes to traffic volumes. Engineers just run numbers and design solutions accordingly.
innsertnamehere
Superstar
they use a long list of assumptions. The studies are often wrong because the assumptions turn out wrong.
The 413 study is interesting as it's now 10 years old and we can compare a bit the original projections with what has actually happened since. A couple of things come to light with this:
1. Population growth has been much stronger than originally assumed
2. Transit expansion has become more ambitious than originally assumed, with the study not including GO RER or Toronto's subway expansion in it's modelling, instead having the old, less ambitious All Day 2 Way GO plans included.
3. Traffic patterns have changed tremendously, particularly during peak hours as a result of COVID
4. Growth occurs in different areas than originally planned.
In the case of the 413, growth in the GTA has been faster than originally assumed. Much more growth. We already exceed the population projections assumed for 2031 in 2024. This would mean that we need more infrastructure. Also working for the 413, industrial growth has resurged a much faster rates than anticipated in 2013, driving faster freight growth levels than anticipated.
But working against the highway is the fact that growth has been occurring through intensification within Toronto at far higher rates than anticipated in 2013, when it was expected that more growth would go to the 905 than actually has. Modal shifts have also changed in ways not anticipated. Suburban modal shares in Peel were assumed to be 17% in 2031 for example, while they are already right around that today and growing. Growth within many 905 areas have also actually been slower than anticipated, particularly York Region. Brampton is the one area of the 905 that is basically achieving it's original growth projections though and is the location most served by the 413.
So the 413 "justification" study as a whole is dated, and MTO has updated it internally from my understanding. The update is not available for public viewing however. I don't think, looking at the underlying assumptions, that it has become wildly incorrect though. Some things have occurred differently than anticipated to work against the highway, others have occured to work for the highway.
More generally, many roads justifications over the last 30 years assumed continuous auto trip growth. In the US particularly, this was not true at all between around 1990 and the late 2010's, with miles travelled per capita remaining basically flat. This phenomenon made many roads projects unnecessary as underlying assumptions were fundamentally wrong.
In the case of the 413 however, most of it's justification comes from more people, not people driving more, and miles per capita in the US (and Canada as well from my understanding) has started going up again over the last 5-10 years too.
T-Bor
Active Member
| Population | 2001 | 2024 | Increase |
| GTA | 4,883 | 6,805 | 1,922 |
| Toronto | 2,481 | 3,026 | 545 |
| Non-Toronto GTA | 2,402 | 3,779 | 1,377 |
Sources: Statscan Table: 17-10-0148-01, Toronto at a Glance
The Toronto population increase accounted for 28% of the GTA growth over the time frame
The non-Toronto population (i.e. 905) increase accounted for 72% of the GTA growth over the time period.
Toronto has been growing, but it's night and day. The 905 has been growing faster. Barring some massive change in provincial policy banning SFHs, more people are going to buy cheaper housing in the 905 and primarily get around by car.
rdaner
Senior Member
Great data! But the ratios of multi/sfh have dramatically changed since 2015 to 80% multi for the whole region and beyond. There has also been a huge increase in rail expansion that is about to begin operating with no road capacity increase.
I’m not saying that you are misguided but the economy/built environment have gone through a paradigm shift to reflect new global realities.