So much of this will come down to what was said behind closed doors in the days after May 16th. It was reported that Rob blurted out something about "our contacts" saying the video was in 1701 or 1703 of 320 Dixon. I imagine that it was around this time that decisions were made to commit crimes in order to recover the video. However, I still think that they were looking for the video as far back as February because why else would Price meet with Ford on the 22nd and then start his completely BS job shortly thereafter? If that is the case, presumably they were using quiet, non-violent methods to find the video and then panicked and got sloppy after the story broke. Still, they KNEW the story was about to break because they'd been tipped off by the CNN producer. So it seems odd that they would only start panicking after May 16th. Anyway, I think the charges will stem largely from what happened in those meetings - and if sources have spoken with the Star about that, I suspect that they have also spoken with the police.
On a related subject, another aspect about this case that has never sat right with me is the suggestion that Mark Towhey was fired for telling Ford to go to rehab. He might have done so, but Kavoulis was also reported to have said he wouldn't work with Ford again unless he cleaned up and he appears to be back on the team now, so this doesn't seem like an offence that gets people fired by Ford. Based on what I read at the time and since, it seems pretty clear that Towhey hated Price. And Towhey was the only person from the mayor's office to contact the police, which I strongly suspect that is the actual reason he was fired. Team Ford probably figured that they could ride out this storm if the police weren't involved, but Towhey screwed that up for them.
At least, that's my theory.