Regarding the idea that Ford Nation is here for good:
As vocal as they are and as sure as they are that Ford will win another election (if he makes it that far), Ford Nation is not a movement here to stay.
Rob Ford’s election was a perfect storm.
Exhibit A. Anger towards David Miller, and all he stood for.
Ford won the election on the tails of disdain for Miller, we all know that. Miller had a remarkably high approval rating for almost 6 years until a lose-lose contract negotiation situation fell into his lap. He gambled (ironically) on the side of the "taxpayers", refusing to capitulate to some pretty hefty demands. If he'd given in, he'd have been labelled a union sympathizer, so he took a chance on allowing a strike. A few weeks in and the public was irate about a lack of garbage pickup, his political fate had been sealed. He didn’t run for re-election, denying many the catharsis and satisfaction of voting against him. These angry people were left needing to vote in a Anti-Miller, just out of spite.
This was the spark that lit Ford Nation, but it's not what fueled the inferno.
Exhibit B. A poor economy makes the pendulum swing.
Politics tends to act like a pendulum. When we vote one political direction, odds are the future will see a swing back to the other side. This is most evident in the US presidential elections, where there’s no centrist third party (well, none close to having any chance). There are a few exceptions, but it seems increasingly rare that an incumbent on any one political side is followed by a new president on the same side of the spectrum. The seat of the president seems in a regular pattern of democrat-republican over and over and over.
But here in our parliamentary federal and provincial elections, we have a third, centrist party. That means that when we don’t “need” the extremes of the spectrum—such as in times of economic boom—we don’t vote for them. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that in more stable economic times, we tend to vote the Liberal party into power, and the Conservatives and NDP pick up more votes during harder times. The last federal election is pretty good proof of that, with the Liberals taking third place.
Our mayoral election shares more in common with the US presidential elections than it does our own party-based parliamentary elections. A lack of parties makes it less likely that anyone will be easily defined as centrist. It’s much easier for people to define in a black and white fashion, without intently following what they say and do. Though Miller was closer to the centre than the far left, he “appeared” as a far-leftist and depicted by many as downright communist, leaving the pendulum to easily swing to the right.
Exhibit C. There was no right wing competition against Rob Ford.
Pantalone was NDP, and Smitherman and Rossi were Liberals, despite Rossi’s piss-poor attempt to court the right wing vote with talk of outsourcing. Tory was as much as politician as Miller was; too well coiffed and too “perfect” a small-c conservative to get a nod from the big-c Conservatives, so if the rumours are true, he was asked (or ordered) not to run in the 2010 election. There was no one standing in Ford’s way of getting conservative votes, and everyone but Ford was viewed as “left wing".
Exhibit D. Ford tapped a market that was previously a political landmine; the market of the secretly-ignorant.
The old trope around the world is that Canadians are polite and inoffensive. To some extent this is true. We certainly show more civility in our politics than our closest neighbour, to whom we’re so often compared. We are also more accepting of diversity and culture, which the sheer growth of Toronto demonstrates. As someone who grew up in small-town rural Ontario however, I can tell you there are a lot of ignorant, bigoted people out there. There are people who hold hateful and spiteful ideas that they never reveal in public, lest they be shamed for them. I have small-town family who still use the words “n!gger”, “towel heads” and “f@ggots”; but you’d never hear them use those words when they’re out in public. It’s ignorance held for private times, with people they feel they can trust.
Ford has demonstrated a lack of public shame. His homophobic, racist remarks are notoriously well known. He’s held back some since becoming Mayor, but as accounts of the crack tape demonstrate, it’s still there just waiting to bubble to the surface. We like to think few of Ford Nation knew of Ford’s own ignorance and bigotry before the election. I tend to disagree. A big number of centrists that voted for him didn’t know about his social failings, but I think he was well known to those who continue to circle the wagons even now, as His Honour’s hindenburg falls to the ground in spectacular flaming fashion.
His brazen bigotry made him a hero to those who held similar feelings. Ford’s ignorance gave them a small amount of permission to feel unashamed, with additional fuel added to the fire through columnists like Sue-Ann Levy. I believe this is why they claim his fiscal policies are what matters, yet ignore the known facts that show his fiscal claims are nothing but bunk. This is also why—if Twitter and comments on the Toronto Sun website are to be used as any measure—Ford Nation appears to hide bigotry under a disguise of fiscal responsibility. There’s still enough disincentive of societal shame to keep them from outright displays of racism and homophobia, but as long as he spurns the Pride parade, and votes against social programs for poor immigrants, they will continue to vote for him.
This newfound freedom from shame, is what’s allowed Ford Nation to be so vocal and seem like such a massive power, when in reality being probably only about 30% of the population.
Exhibit E. The rise of Tea Party politics.
Canada, perhaps like no other country in the world, is dominated by the media of another. In our case, it’s the the United States. With most of us living so close to the US border, this is inevitable. And with that comes some degree of political sway on Canadian politics. The Tea Party has many sympathizers north of the border. Despite it having little bearing on our own politics, there are many Canadians who closely follow and hold opinions on the actions of Michelle Bachmann, Ted Cruz and Rand Paul. Their pseudo-claim of “looking out for the taxpayers”, holds a lot of sway up here. Our economy has taken a hit, and appealing to those who are now questioning where their taxes are going is a cheap, but effective way of destabilizing political views.
Unfortunately, the words often speak louder than the actions, despite the old adage. Even though the tea party is essentially controlled by billionaire (Koch) brothers who’ve routinely shown a disdain towards the poor and tax-burdened, they’ve created a narrative of empowering that very same group. Rob Ford has himself reflected this. His promises of no service cuts and “saving billions” is dishonest at it’s best, but it’s been horribly effective. He’s appealed to that very same group as the Tea Party and has had the same effect.
In conclusion, it’s easy to think that Ford Nation will never end. If the recent U.S. Government Shutdown is any indication however, there is a limit to how far sheer gaul will get you, and the Tea Party has begun losing favour down south. Ideology took precedence over the actual saving of “taxpayers money” and the public saw that. The scapegoating of Democrats for the mess didn’t work this time, and the Tea Party republicans were forced to capitulate to stem the losses of both poll numbers and fellow republicans.
The same has begun happening to Rob Ford. It won’t be the crack video that breaks his back, it will be a combination of a failure of everything. All five of the above exhibits are cracking:
A) David Miller is no longer seeming the worst mayor in the room in comparison to a man who hangs out with drug and gun runners, smokes crack, has been actively investigated by the police and lies about it all for nearly six months straight.
B) Conservative scandals everywhere are impacting negatively pushing the pendulum away from the right.
C) Sane-minded conservative candidates have already said they will throw their hats in the mayoral ring.
D) His followers haven shown more repulsive and shameful gaul in defending him. This is turning the image of Ford Nation into something closer to Heaven’s Gate than legitimate political change.
E) His lies and fiscal “accomplishments” are being questioned more and more in the media.
It’s all there, and sanity and sobriety is righting the ship. The storm is ending sooner than later.