adma
Superstar
One thing worth mentioning about Olivia Chow's campaigning and election strategy--and I say this from my own experience volunteering for her last 2 Federal campaigns--is that she has a huge base of supporters and volunteers and a phenomenal ground game. IIRC her margin of victory in the last election was even higher than her internal polling. She is a master of getting out the vote and this alone may be enough to ensure her victory. (it's also worth noting that she may be most effective in doing this in the Old City which traditionally has the lowest turnout in Muni elections, and with young voters who rarely vote at all)
Though I *might* caveat that by suggesting the 2011 election was exceptional. OTOH in 2004 (when she lost) and 2008 (when she won w/barely 40%), she actually *underperformed* expectations, perhaps a little because of the bygone (and maybe future?) voter's dummy tendency to default Liberal, "the NDP can't win", etc. And provincially speaking, there's Rosario Marchese's underperformance in 2007 and 2011 to consider, too.