I agree. Chow's numbers have been declining and I think Ford will hammer Tory about his push to raise taxes to fund transit. The others stand no chance IMO. And I think a lot of people who think Ford is a fool will simply not vote because they're even more disgusted with politicians than ever. The only game changer will be an arrest for something significant.
Definitely can't rule him out. And yet it's very hard to win without a solid team of strategists and fundraisers.....and who is Ford going to turn to in 2014?
Remember, in 2010, Ford had a small but highly effective team - they developed the gravy train strategy, wrote his talking points, developed his policy platform, did his polling, organized voters....everything. All Ford had to do was show up relatively sober and stay on point. Who's he got left? Only Doug, and he's no strategist. Even John Capobianco, who stepped in to help Ford pay off his election debt and was on Team Ford by mid-term, has moved on.
As for funding, Ford didn't raise as much as Smitherman, but he did get lots of help from the big blue machine - I'm guessing that was a combination of family connections (e.g., Jim Flaherty) and conservatives who saw Ford as the only viable right-wing candidate (see this interesting map of donations:
http://www.pressprogress.ca/en/post/follow-money-mapping-donations-harperland-ford-nation).
But how much of the Tory establishment will support a second Ford run? Leaders like Hudak and Harper have been expediently silent, not wanting to alienate the uneducated masses of Ford Nation. But I can't imagine the Tory old guard is too keen on the crack-smoking, pussy eating, gang-befriending version of Rob Ford that's emerged within the last year. Not to mention the cherry on top: the Fords' ill-considered attack on Andrew Pringle, a prominent Ontario conservative and former chair of the PC Ontario Fund - I can't imagine that landed without consequence.
Ford is undeniably resilient, but the election team and the money they bring in is the secret sauce. Yesterday Ford refused to "drop names" on his election team, so I guess we'll have to wait and see. But I think that will be the difference maker.