Long Island Mike
Senior Member
If mayors can "easily" win elections with 30-35% of the vote, then you should be able to produce several examples of such a thing actually happening in real life.
Just because something is possible in theory doesn't mean that it's likely in practice. What has historically happened in previous mayoral elections is that two frontrunners emerge that share over 80% of the vote, requiring the winner to get more than 40%. The only exceptions to this trend have been landslides (which we can all agree Ford is in no danger of getting).
To find the last time a mayor was elected in Toronto with less than 40% of the vote, you need to go all the way back to 1978. A split on the right resulted in John Sewell winning with only 39% of the vote. The '78 election is really the exception that proves to rule because it was unprecedented at the time, and we haven't seen anything like it in the 35 years and 11 municipal elections since. And even Sewell's 39% would be a bit of a stretch for Ford.
SM: Interesting thoughts here - If things do go sharply downhill for Ford in 2014 and he is still standing in office at election time there may be a record voter turnout
among those voters that are against Ford and that would decide this election later this year...Let's see what happens...
LI MIKE