I think the #FordFestArrest was tongue in cheek, although MM doesn't really have that type of comedic leeway with many people. I still think he is a piece in the puzzle, and shouldn't be completely disregarded.
If you read the tweets, he is saying that "chatter" has increased for the first time in a few months, and in similar fashion to other larger breaks in the case. That's all.
He mentioned the other day that Farah had been "very cooperative" with police, although stopped short of saying for sure that the dropped charges had to do with that. He was speculating just like the rest of us, but didn't state it as fact. Again, he conjectured again today on that same topic "Charges dropped, deals made?".