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Forum

Videodrome said:
Forum will probably give Doug over 30%
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Yes, you're right. Doug gets 31% tonight. Forum always seems to inflate the Fords' voter intention numbers but I don't think it's anything nefarious.
They're still calling landlines exclusively I think which skews the sample somewhat and forces them to heavily weight some of their results. To get a more thoughtful read on the polls - and stay sane - watch Eric Grenier's site, ThreeHundredEight.com. He has a weighted formula for aggregating polls and calculating the numbers and trends over time. Works pretty well.
 
One thing that gets me about the commentary on the polls is that the line is always "Doug is gaining" or "showing momentum," even though he's well back of Tory. Even in tonight's favourable Forum numbers, he's closer to Chow than Tory. That's where the battle is, IMO, especially when you look at the other results.
 
wombat said:
Yes, you're right. Doug gets 31% tonight. Forum always seems to inflate the Fords' voter intention numbers but I don't think it's anything nefarious.
They're still calling landlines exclusively I think which skews the sample somewhat and forces them to heavily weight some of their results. To get a more thoughtful read on the polls - and stay sane - watch Eric Grenier's site, ThreeHundredEight.com. He has a weighted formula for aggregating polls and calculating the numbers and trends over time. Works pretty well.
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It would be interesting to know during what hours Forum calls. Calling home landlines during business hours skews away from those who are at work. Completed calls during dinnertime are hardly likely to be families with kids.

Calling at 2am would be like Rob Ford -- or perhaps Rofo himself -- and may skew towards insomniacs, or those who are drunk.
 
Poll Illiteracy

Cooper said:
One thing that gets me about the commentary on the polls is that the line is always "Doug is gaining" or "showing momentum," even though he's well back of Tory. Even in tonight's favourable Forum numbers, he's closer to Chow than Tory. That's where the battle is, IMO, especially when you look at the other results.
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There's quite a bit of polling illiteracy out there, even among veteran journalists who ought to know better. For example, both Forum and Main Street Technologies did snap polls the day Doug declared and rushed them into publication. It was pretty shoddy work on a day when there was a lot of confusion and emotions were running pretty high. Forum had Doug at 34 or 35 and Main Street had him at 18, I believe. Completely nutty, useless numbers.
So, instead of throwing those polls out, what are a lot of people doing? They're using them as benchmarks to measure Doug's progress or lack of same. It's ridiculous. The best thing to do is what Grenier does. Aggregate the data, average it out and plot it over time to wash out the extraneous noise: the rogue polls and the outliers. If you do that you generally come up with more accurate numbers.
 
casita said:
View attachment 34221
https://twitter.com/TorSunCity/status/514095848821911553/photo/1
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xUdQNAN.gif
 
image.jpg

Harvest Moon, the full moon nearest the autumnal equinox, rises alongside Toronto’s CN Tower in Toronto, September 18, 2013.

Hey, didn't we just miss the Autumnal Equinox? Like about 2 hours ago?

No longer a summer's eve, but now an autumnal nightfall...
 

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Lamport Davenport said:
It would be interesting to know during what hours Forum calls. Calling home landlines during business hours skews away from those who are at work. Completed calls during dinnertime are hardly likely to be families with kids.

Calling at 2am would be like Rob Ford -- or perhaps Rofo himself -- and may skew towards insomniacs, or those who are drunk.
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Yeah. Also, I don't know where it makes sense to compare polls by different pollsters. They all have their own method. I look at the trends rather the numbers. All pollsters have JT in a strong lead. Doug is hovering around Rob's numbers and Olvia is stuck in the basement. We'll find out what the actually percentages are on election day. But for now, this is election is Tory's to lose.
 
LordWanker said:
Believe it is in same Islington location plus Rob is apparently making a n appearance
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Right, just like Rob was going to Skype during his birthday party whle in rehab. Did Doug mention this? That alone should be enough to highly doubt this. It's either something to pull people there, or something the family dangles in front of beloved Saint Rob to give him something to fight for. Blech.
 
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basic said:
Right, just like Rob was going to Skype during his birthday party whle in rehab. Did Doug mention this? That alone should be enough to highly doubt this. It's either something to pull people there, or something the family dangles in front of beloved Saint Rob to give him something to fight for. Blech.
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I hope you're right and this cancer carnival doesn't happen . If Rob actually wants to do it, I hope there is a doctor that would put the kibosh on the idea, or say you're chemo fogged right now Rob, go back to bed. If the Fofam brain trusts wants to do it, it's god damn ghoulish. Rob needs to get better and survive. Because he needs to sing like a canary for Lisi's trial, or if Brazen 2 wraps up.
 
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