Toronto Mayor John Tory is popular but not unbeatable — especially if his opponent happens to go by the last name Ford, a mid-term check-up reveals.
Mainstreet Research has released the results of a new poll, exclusive to Postmedia, that asks Torontonians how they think their high-profile mayor is doing halfway through his four-year term in office.
Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research, said Tory’s numbers have slipped a bit from last year but he would get re-elected.
Tory enjoyed the support of 40% of decided voters polled across Toronto, when facing a hypothetical field of past and present councillors.
Almost one quarter of voters were undecided.
“The only other viable candidate right now from this list is Doug Ford,” Maggi said. “If he ran, he’d give John Tory a real race.
“But that’s not to say that somebody else couldn’t’ come in, and there are other high profile city councillors that could probably do as well,” he said.
Mainstreet asked Toronto voters who they would support – Tory, Ford, or Councillors Mike Layton, Josh Colle or Kristyn Wong-Tam.
Ford, who lost the last mayoral election to Tory and is no longer in public office, has the support of 24% of voters.
Wong-Tam was backed by 6%, Layton 4% and Colle 3%.
Ford has openly speculated that he might run in the next mayor’s race.
“His problem will be that as time goes on ... the longer he’s out of politics and out of the limelight, the more people’s memories will fade and that’s really his biggest challenge if he were to mount another mayoral bid in 2018,” Maggi said.
Tory did put up some big numbers in the popularity poll.
He’s nudging 50% support in the downtown, and is leading in all other areas of the city, even in the Fords’ supposed home field advantage of Etobicoke.
“The fact that he would still get 40% against this hypothetical field is a good sign for him,” Maggi said. “I would never give a politician the advice that they should take it for granted — obviously I don’t think he would — but here we are at the mid-term of the mandate and he’s in a good position.”
Tory will need to continue avoiding controversies and get some “big wins” at City Hall, he said.
Ford was just one point behind in Etobicoke, four points behind in North York and nine points behind in Scarborough.
Although Tory has support among all ages and both genders, he’s strongest with the 35 years-olds and up and women voters.
Ford tended to get more support from men and younger people.
Maggi cautioned that while a “scenario” poll reflects current thinking among voters, it shouldn’t be seen as a complete predictor of Election Day results.
“About 10 days before Olivia Chow announced her (2014 mayoral) candidacy, we had run a poll showing that she would come in as the frontrunner ... that she would come in ahead of John Tory, ahead of Doug Ford, ahead of anybody else by five or six points,” he said. “Then just a little under two weeks later she announces her candidacy and the very first poll we did a week in when the final field was known she had dropped ten points.”
