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Don Peat @reporterdonpeat · 33m
Mayor Rob Ford ignoring question about whether he "bullied and harassed" Don Bosco staff #TOpoli
 
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We need another bombshell somewhere in the beginning of September to put this all to rest.

The Ford meltdown has not happened (at least in public), and the public is beginning to forget about his actions and remember only his lies.
 
Let's make our own...

Leaflets with documented Rob Ford slurs should be distributed to every Black, South Asian, Italian, and Jewish household in city.

We can begin with nigger, kike, dago, paki...
 
Greg Banks said:
This election will be won or lost hinging on the results of specific highly populated Wards...Pollers should be adjusting their sights to specifically gauging Wards 15, 16, 23, 24, 25, 41, 42 and 44. I think it is too early to tell how these wards are going to break
Etobicoke (1,2,3)/York (7,8,9,11,12) will vote R Ford as first choice most of which are lower populated/elector wards
Old City and Old Scarborough (13,14,15,17,18,19,20,21,22,27,28,29,30,31,32,35,36) will break Chow/Tory how the split will be I'm not sure as neither at this point is really grabbing voters with their vision and there are differing geographical imperatives
I expect Don Valley (26,33,34,39,40) to be a three way split with a slight advantage to Tory
And the we come to R Ford's Scarborough strength (37,38,43)...priority neighbourhood wards

R Ford is hanging his hat on getting TCHC vote out...164,000 tenents...probably 82,000 voting age...probably 75% eligible to vote...being generous maybe 60% of that will go to the polls...37,000 at the top end. I expect somewhere around 350,000 will be necessary to win the election....If R Ford polls 50% again with a 60% turnout in Etob/York and his Scarborough wards that is another 101,692 votes....so the possibility here is if R Ford polls in the above he is 211,308 votes from 350,000 and considering there will be another 712,857 voters available with a 60% turnout in the rest of Toronto... R Ford needs less than 30% of those voters to get returned...
Click to expand...

Wow, what an analysis - thank you for thoughtfulness in your efforts and for sharing. I will review with interest!!

Re: TCHC, I've been mulling the matter for months. Why not create a truth telling "party"? Said party to be composed of cross party souls who can spare some hours a week (if you're campaigning for a mayor already, two hours from that time) to respectfully approach TCHC buildings strictly to tell the truth. We would not be there to support anyone; our purpose is to tell the truth and expose the fraud that is the Mayors Ford.

Indulge if you will my brainstorm - teams of people, really credible, caring people of all political stripes setting out to engage TCHC tenants - perhaps an event at the building? Balloons, helpful pamphlets, tenant rights, legal clinics in area etc. - but really great literature which creatively sets out the LIES they have foisted upon a populace whose lives are too big to fact check.

"Oh, you're just a pinko" "no, actually I'm a conservative" (reason why having people of all political stripes) ...

"well he supports the little guy, he's a regular joe",.."no, he's not, here's why" (show groovy graphic, or voting record, talk about his millions and his excesses because of it, "have you recently taken a private plane?")

"I don't care that he drinks,...drugs" "well you should because it will kill him and he's not showing up for work" (show attendance record (shout out to rob work watch)) As for drugs, he cannot hang with/in or support a culture so lethal to young men

We could have the other candidates literature but we completely non-partisan - media could be alerted - a movement created specifically to tell the truth about one candidate.

I'm going to start working on some literature ideas....if nothing else, maybe a drop at complexes

Like I said at the outset, I've been ruminating
 
casita said:
"Why Rob Ford will win again in Toronto"
http://www.thestar.com/opinion/commentary/2014/08/27/why_rob_ford_will_win_again_in_toronto.html
Click to expand...

My head hurts. This guy could be right. Yet he too hopes he's wrong. I sure do.

Fordland is a place where you can't win with logic, because logic doesn't work there. Think Alice in Wonderland, but harsher. Think crack, not grass. Think, and feel frustrated.

Soks is the anti-Ford, in that he has ideas, policy, and granular fiddly things. Even if you gloss over the details with a yawn, there's some kind of refreshing appeal for a city hall leader who knows and cares about that kind of stuff.

But that appeal is only a tidbit or a garnish. For the main course, we want somebody with character. You can't get down and feel tingly about a guy who brings a calculator to a knife fight. Can we vote Soks for Deputy Mayor?

I agree that the main contender has to get down there and get visceral. You can't wrestle in the mud with Ford, for the same reasons you wouldn't mud-wrestle with a pig.

The main contender needs to hit voters in the guts with the message that Ford More Years is toxic, as in radioactively bad for you *and* your bowels. Seriously double-plus-ungood.

No more pranks on city hall. He doesn't have $60 to give you for gas money. Late night TV may laugh at Ford, but they think Torontonians are milquetoast with weaksauce for tolerating him. Low self-esteem is in Toronto's DNA, but this amounts to cutting yourself with a rusty blade.

The main contender needs a main message, maybe something like:

Rob Ford pushes your hate buttons. The things you think you hate. The people you think you hate.

As your mayor, what he does hurts you where you live. Don't shit where you sleep.
Don't do it again. Don't vote Ford. Vote for somebody who won't wreck your home.
 
I'll admit before RoFo I knew ZERO about politics. Now I know about 2%...so forgive my ignorance...but it seems like Joe P. quitting/retiring or whatever...wasn't he the one who was kinda doing the heavy lifting regarding calculations and stuff? (<-Technical term) Would Soks make a good City Manager to backup either Tory or Chow?
 
10m
Rob Ford Must Go @robfordmustgo
Doug Ford just went by, and suggested that we would be very upset by the newest polling numbers. We promise to take it in our stride. /kc
 
ndawgg said:
I'll admit before RoFo I knew ZERO about politics. Now I know about 2%...so forgive my ignorance...but it seems like Joe P. quitting/retiring or whatever...wasn't he the one who was kinda doing the heavy lifting regarding calculations and stuff? (<-Technical term) Would Soks make a good City Manager to backup either Tory or Chow?
Click to expand...

He was Miller's budget chief for a while- I think he would be more capable as a City Manager where the unfair and irrational pressures are slightly lower.

Lamport Davenport said:
The main contender needs to hit voters in the guts with the message that Ford More Years is toxic, as in radioactively bad for you *and* your bowels. Seriously double-plus-ungood.
Click to expand...

I don't know why Kouvalis hasn't been doing this more, given his character and history of doing these things. Perhaps he's waiting until after Labour Day to unleash the hounds? Who knows what'll happen? Will the Fordites have reshaped the political landscape (yet again) by then?
 
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Lamport Davenport said:
My head hurts. This guy could be right. Yet he too hopes he's wrong. I sure do.

Fordland is a place where you can't win with logic, because logic doesn't work there. Think Alice in Wonderland, but harsher. Think crack, not grass. Think, and feel frustrated.
Click to expand...

Bah, it's the same old "he COULD win!" that's been in the air since at least Doolittle's book came out, and probably before. I'm sticking with my sub-20% prediction in the poll. (And I will say that on the off-chance he somehow comes out ahead in a 3-way race with Chow and Tory that, more than Ford, that would say some very scary things about our electoral system and the maturity, political and otherwise, of the people living here. But it won't happen!)

There are callow and stupid and ignorant and amoral people who will vote for this guy. 2/3 of the city's residents absolutely will not. Yeah, it matters who comes out to vote etc. but I put no stock in these polls. I don't know the last time I saw a poll nail anything significant, including the recent provincial election, the Ford election, the last federal election, Obama's re-election...

Ford Nation won't budge but everyone else is done. Anyone dumb enough to be duped by his reform act was always in Ford Nation anyway. Anyone paying attention saw him lose a pointless vote on the Raptors facility the other day that proved that even if he was improbably re-elected, he'd have no sway over council. Oh, I know, he keeps talking up how 15 new councillors are coming on board etc. but:
a) I put even less stock in his ability to predict electoral results than I do in his ability to do something honest, coherent or intelligent;
b) There's no way to know who those 15 people will be. What if Dan Fox takes out David Shiner, for example?

I know those people who would still vote for him are too dim or otherwise lack the understanding that even if you fully back his agenda you need him to win AND at least 10 new councillors who will back him but everyone else does.

I understand the need to prepare for the worst but some of this is too much. It would be easy, in a weird way, to think he really is smarter than we think and that Doug (as this guy claims) is some sort of campaign genius; it would give some context to to the existential need to understand how and why this has all unfolded as it has, but there is no bigger picture. They're just a couple of dumb bullies and soon they'll be done. After Labour Day stuff's gonna get real. This has all been prologue.
 
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