[lead82]

I am really surprised that people here aren't politically savvy sometimes. The PCs of the 90s crapped on transit because there was really no electoral gains to be made supporting transit. These days? That's not the case. The PCs lost seats in Ottawa when Hudak refused to commit to Phase II and that interview went viral enough to sink their candidates there. They had candidates trying to backpedal from what their leader said.

They've learned their lesson. And they won't make that mistake again.

That doesn't mean they'll support all transit. They'll support transit with a political payoff. And since downtown Toronto will vote PC when hell freezes over, I think the DRL is toast. I think Sheppard gets an extension to Agincourt. GO RER goes ahead with prioritization for lines that can be finished quickly or have easy electoral payoff. Electrification is probably toast. High capital spending for operational costs savings that materialize well after they are out of power. I have a feeling the Hurontario LRT is at risk. There really won't be substantial shovels in the ground. Ditto Hamilton. Wherever, support for LRT isn't very solid or deep, there's an opportunity to cancel it. Hamilton and Peel Region aren't as vehement about their LRT plans as Ottawa was.

Back on Sheppard. The Tories aren't stupid. They know that building the subway to STC would be super expensive. And not achieve much. But with GO RER on the way, Agincourt is a perfect target. I could even see a push to go Westward to get to Downsview. Would help them pick up some seats in North York in subsequent elections.

I don't know that PC's will really care about Sheppard that much. They will likely get Scarborough, but there are many more votes in 905 than 416. Sheppard subway is no one's priority as its ridership is low and everyone knows it was a mistake to build. Extending it may make it slightly more useful but those are billions of dollars in new money to spend and timeline will be long. If PC's win, my bet goes to funding Yonge extension to Richmond Hill. EA is done, designs under way. All that's missing is a full funding promise. I bet you Liberals will propose to fund DRL+Yonge north in 2018 platform. PC's would fund Yonge at expense of Toronto's RL.

The big question is how to fund it. If anyone cancel's Hamilton or Peel LRT, to pay for transit in York/Toronto, that would be a vote loser. Mississauga is very pro LRT, so cancelling it would lose votes. Hamilton's may be cancelled as it has weak support. Hopefully Finch seems construction starting so that it is beyond point of cancellation.

What I can see happening is cancelling Eglinton West/East extensions to fund Yonge North with help of Feds. If RL doesn't get funded though Toronto may find itself with more subways but less reliability. Today is a perfect example - Bloor/Yonge closed essentially paralyzed the entire subway system and make it useless to get downtown or anywhere.

My hope is that RL gets funded in next round of funding as it is critical. All else can fall by alter but of those city projects still to be funded, RL+Yonge North are surest bets. Besides a few councillors in North York, no one is really clamouring for Sheppard extensions.

 

[11th]

My hope is that RL gets funded in next round of funding as it is critical. All else can fall by alter but of those city projects still to be funded, RL+Yonge North are surest bets. Besides a few councillors in North York, no one is really clamouring for Sheppard extensions.

Here I thought a line 4 east extension would benefit NE Scarborough and southern Markham more so than North York. Perhaps you are referring to the extension to Shappard West, then yes, it's mostly North York councillors who are clamouring for it.

 

[Hopkins123]

I don't know that PC's will really care about Sheppard that much. They will likely get Scarborough, but there are many more votes in 905 than 416. Sheppard subway is no one's priority as its ridership is low and everyone knows it was a mistake to build. Extending it may make it slightly more useful but those are billions of dollars in new money to spend and timeline will be long. If PC's win, my bet goes to funding Yonge extension to Richmond Hill. EA is done, designs under way. All that's missing is a full funding promise. I bet you Liberals will propose to fund DRL+Yonge north in 2018 platform. PC's would fund Yonge at expense of Toronto's RL.

The big question is how to fund it. If anyone cancel's Hamilton or Peel LRT, to pay for transit in York/Toronto, that would be a vote loser. Mississauga is very pro LRT, so cancelling it would lose votes. Hamilton's may be cancelled as it has weak support. Hopefully Finch seems construction starting so that it is beyond point of cancellation.

What I can see happening is cancelling Eglinton West/East extensions to fund Yonge North with help of Feds. If RL doesn't get funded though Toronto may find itself with more subways but less reliability. Today is a perfect example - Bloor/Yonge closed essentially paralyzed the entire subway system and make it useless to get downtown or anywhere.

My hope is that RL gets funded in next round of funding as it is critical. All else can fall by alter but of those city projects still to be funded, RL+Yonge North are surest bets. Besides a few councillors in North York, no one is really clamouring for Sheppard extensions.

What makes you so certain that the PC s will cancel the western and eastern extensions of the Crosstown? If anything, they'll propose grade-separating the whole thing from UTSC to the airport, as it should have been from Day One. If the PCs are going to make any breakthroughs in the 416, it'll most likely be through the areas this line would route through i.e. Scarborough and Etobicoke. They may also come up with a more sensible solution to extending the Bloor-Danforth eastward than the current one-stop fiasco.

Back to the thread topic, a feasible Sheppard Line from Downsview to Agincourt in the shorter term would not be such a bad thing as the need for a rapid way to connect the Spadina Line to the Yonge Line north of the 401 still exists and needs to be addressed.

 

[crs1026]

Though if Brown is willing to support subway construction, he'd better direct the funding to the Relief line and take it into the inner suburbs. That line would be just as popular with his voter base, but with a bonus of 4X greater ridership.

This is the nub of the issue. Sometimes politicians define the problem, sometimes the problem emerges and they can have to face it.

I won't digress too far from this thread, but - the Relief Line is a rock in the bay that any new government will face. I can agree that Brown will be moderately pro-transit.... but measured in his spending. When the projects are lined up in priority, the Relief Line will force its way to the top - out of necessity, not out of platform design. The bills for the Line 2 extension will come in - again, he won't oppose this project - and the Relief Line will take a huge bite out of what's available. I would bet he will push back hard on the premise of DRL Long, preferring to build only the first leg and leave the next leg for a decade (a huge error in my view, and a perpetuation of the "stub building" mentality that has not served Toronto well.....but typical Tory approach to infrastructure ).

This leaves him to make plenty of encouraging sounds about being committed to Sheppard, but passing the bill to the future.

- Paul

 

[UD2]

Why would anyone here believe that a PC government will spend any money into the relief line? If I look on the map, building the Sheppard subway will result in more seats won at a smaller cost than the DRL.

 

[kEiThZ]

no party has lost or gained any seat in Ottawa since 2003, when two Liberals beat PC incumbents.

If I remember correctly, the PC candidates were real contenders in Ottawa until Hudak sank them with his interview. LRT was a touchstone issue in Ottawa.

 

[kEiThZ]

Why would anyone here believe that a PC government will spend any money into the relief line? If I look on the map, building the Sheppard subway will result in more seats won at a smaller cost than the DRL.

Exactly how I see it too. They stand no chance at downtown seats. Even if they promised to make DRL the number 1 priority, they still wouldn't win seats in the core. The Sheppard subway gives them some shot at inner suburban seats in Scarborough. You can bet somebody at PC HQ has done the math.

The only questions are:

1) Do they care about overcrowding on Yonge at all?

2) How far will they extend Sheppard?

 

[sixrings]

Makes me want to vote PC

 

[Elite People]

It's very overboard but still.

 

[crs1026]

Why would anyone here believe that a PC government will spend any money into the relief line? If I look on the map, building the Sheppard subway will result in more seats won at a smaller cost than the DRL.

Well, it will be interesting to see how Tory, Byford, and Keesmaat would respond to that. They have all backed the Relief line. Would they not argue the point? Does Brown have the leverage to make it worth their while to fall into line? And what about the ridings north of Steeles that wont see a Line 1 extension without the relief line? The need for the relief line is already too well accepted. I can't see any party killing it in silence.

Certainly, if DoFo ran for the Tories in North Scarborough and put his weight behind Sheppard, Brown would have a problem. But if he thought that going along with DoFo would appease him..... you don't make a bear go away by feeding it.

- Paul

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Why would anyone here believe that a PC government will spend any money into the relief line? If I look on the map, building the Sheppard subway will result in more seats won at a smaller cost than the DRL.

There is a world north of Steeles Avenue, and the world doesn't revolve around Scarborough. Much of the PC base comes parts of the province that are strongly averse to spending, especially if that is spending on Toronto. Too much proposed spending on Toronto, and especially a $6 Billion+ subway extension, is exactly the thing that'll lose the PCs rural ridings, either because their supporters stay home, or opt to vote for the Liberals or NDP instead.

Furthermore, it's also worth noting that there hasn't been an infrastructure proposal this generation as contentious as the Sheppard Subway Extension. If the PCs were to support any one infrastructure project, I don't know why they'd choose the contentious Sheppard Subway over the nearly universally acclaimed Relief Line Long.

Finally, the Sheppard Subway Extension is merely one in a long list of infrastructure commitments that must be made within Toronto. This includes the Scarborough Subway ($3.5 Billion) and Relief Line Short ($7.5 Billion). It's unlikely that the PCs will be willing to commit another $6 Billion or so for the Sheppard Line. Spending $17 Billion of spending on Toronto will infuriate their base.

If the PCs say anything on the Sheppard Extension, it'll be something completely noncommittal ("we'll think about building it if we have money"). More likely, however, is that they just won't talk about it.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Exactly how I see it too. They stand no chance at downtown seats. Even if they promised to make DRL the number 1 priority, they still wouldn't win seats in the core. The Sheppard subway gives them some shot at inner suburban seats in Scarborough. You can bet somebody at PC HQ has done the math.

The only questions are:

1) Do they care about overcrowding on Yonge at all?

2) How far will they extend Sheppard?

There is a suburban subway proposal that would be popular in Scarborough and Downtown.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

There is a suburban subway proposal that would be popular in Scarborough and Downtown.

That's a north york subway.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Well, it will be interesting to see how Tory, Byford, and Keesmaat would respond to that. They have all backed the Relief line. Would they not argue the point? Does Brown have the leverage to make it worth their while to fall into line? And what about the ridings north of Steeles that wont see a Line 1 extension without the relief line? The need for the relief line is already too well accepted. I can't see any party killing it in silence.

Certainly, if DoFo ran for the Tories in North Scarborough and put his weight behind Sheppard, Brown would have a problem. But if he thought that going along with DoFo would appease him..... you don't make a bear go away by feeding it.

- Paul

There will be a separate package for a full DRL, Sheppard and the Eglinton extensions. Book it.

 

[Rainforest]

Why would anyone here believe that a PC government will spend any money into the relief line? If I look on the map, building the Sheppard subway will result in more seats won at a smaller cost than the DRL.

The electoral strategy is a bit more complex than that. Some of Scarborough seats may be theirs anyway. The PCs will not need to commit immediate funding to the subway extension, as long as they do not refuse to build it outright.

On the other hand, some business groups are interested in enhancing the downtown transit. While those groups control few votes, they may be relevant for the PC's fundrising.