As seen by the MetrolinxEngage Fare Integration outreach, I think the fare of the 416 portion of GO's network (RER/ST/GO/whatever and even possibly UPX) will actually eventually equalize with the fares of the TTC subway -- within 10 years(ish). The fare difference is not too huge, and there should be elimination of transfers for this.
Source: Metrolinx
Source: Metrolinx
This may mean TTC is slightly higher than today, and short-distance GO becomes equalized to TTC price. $3.25 (TTC, cash) and $5.02 (GO Weston-Union, Presto) are close enough that a convergence can easily occur within 10 years by sheer inflation-excuse and presto-vs-cash discount adjustment shenanigans (e.g. Metrolinx simply begins holding prices back below inflation). Could be introduced over a multi-year period. And yes, free transfers within criteria (timed, zoned, or whatever).
Alas, it also possibly means TTC isn't a single fare anymore too -- e.g. extra fare to go to Vaughan via TTC subway.
So in one sense, people are right that ST becomes TTC fare (well, at least the 416 zone), but it's just simply "TTC subway migrates partially closer to short-distance 416 commuter fare, and short-distance 416 commuter migrates partially closer to TTC subway fare"
Not saying this will happen.
But the fact is, Metrolinx
is actually
considering certain municipal transit trips (TTC!) equalling the price of certain Metrolinx-corridor transit trips (regardless of whether you call it RER or SmartTrack, and regardless of whether TTC or Metrolinx operates it).
Further reading:
Fare Structure Concepts and
Fare Integration at MetrolinxEnage.com