Cowtown
Senior Member
Calgary is consistent. For the past couple of years, we are usually in the top three every month.
|
|
|
- Thread starter kora
- Start date
Atticus
Active Member
I’m too lazy to do the numbers but I bet Calgary is tops in terms of housing starts/per capita for the big 6 metros.
gsunnyg
Senior Member
I'm curious to see how population growth will shape up now but I’d say this shift was long overdue. Finally!
DougB
Active Member
Growth will slow dramatically. The big unknown is what happens to intra provincial migration. I can't see housing affordability improving in ON or BC. A change in the federal government can only be more positive for AB relative to other provinces. Maybe internal migration to AB will hold up.
Last edited:
trtcttc
Active Member
House prices doesn't necessarily need to fall for affordability to go up. Rates are coming down pretty fast and rents even faster. The interprovincial migration will slow down, but that is probably a positive as long as we're still net positive compared to net negatives from 2016-2021. Employment and services need some time to catch up.
Albertasaurus
Active Member
I'm not sure that the population growth for Alberta will decline that dramatically. The feds' immigration cut represents a decrease of some 20% or so. Combined with bringing in less foreign students (which won't affect AB as much as provinces with lots of universities and colleges like ON and BC) and even if, say, we have a decline of 30 or 40%...when the province grew by 200,000 last year that could still mean between 100,000 and 150,000 people, typically half of whom will move to greater Calgary. It seems like AB, and especially Calgary has become an increasingly popular destination for immigrants so if we continue to garner a larger share of a shrinking pie, the numbers are still likely to be quite robust. If Calgary's growth averages somewhere in the likely range of 50-70,000 a year, that's a healthy rate that is much more sustainable than 100,000 is.
darwink
Senior Member
Really difficult to disentangle predictions into the various categories of arrivals as our public discourse treats different numbers as the same all the time.
Right now there are ~2.8-2.9 million non-permanent residents in Canada. By 2027, the goal is to have that number be ~2 million. so a net 8-900,000 drop. That drop is fewer arrivals, more departures, and possibly more conversions to permanent status (immigration). So -300k net new non-permanent residents each year, 400k net new permanent residents per year, -50k net births, deaths, emigration.
So 50k ish population growth per year Canada wide. There is no way Calgary will continue at 50k a year in this environment.
Albertasaurus
Active Member
/\So you mean total growth, including TFWs, new immigrants and international students would only represent 100k a year, minus natural increase? I must confess it's a bit confusing as to the different "buckets" our population growth comes from.
Yeah fair enough, that would be a big slowdown nationwide. Saving grace for Calgary is we already get 10,000 through natural increase alone which doesn't happen in most other parts of Canada.
Yeah fair enough, that would be a big slowdown nationwide. Saving grace for Calgary is we already get 10,000 through natural increase alone which doesn't happen in most other parts of Canada.
CBBarnett
Senior Member
Our natural increase is slowing, has been below 10,000 for a few years. City's data estimates about 7,700 this past year, slowing to 6,000 by 2029. For comparison, Toronto has about 20,000 natural growth currently - per capita we are high, but there's many more babies out there than just Calgary.
Overall, unless there's a dramatic socio-economic swing in birth rates, even Calgary's slightly above Canadian average - but well below replacement - birth rates won't be enough to generate much growth.
Key to this fact is that this will lead to a fairly broad decrease in non-permanent population in all CMAs, including Calgary. That would effectively erase or reverse some of the out-sized growth we saw in the past few years. We can outperform all other CMAs and still see a decrease in population from this category.
It's possible - but even if it holds up to these historically unprecedented levels, it's still only 20,000 to 30,000 for the Calgary CMA. At peak oil boom in the mid-2000s, interprovincial was only 10 - 15,000 annually for the region. Interprovincial numbers swing wildly too - and are always dwarfed by international growth.
As it's a bit of a crapshoot - my bet will be a big swing to negligible growth for a few years in line with the national average, then rebound to a 20,000 - 30,000 annually kind of range in a few years.
CalgaryTiger
Senior Member
I wonder if we maybe see rental construction (was there really much?) pull back until after a federal election and perhaps for a few years until the rubber hits the road with these changes. Rents are already decreasing, I don't see the lack of GST on rental being a factor for the developers.
trtcttc
Active Member
Don't we have more projects starting now than the last little while? I can't recall the full list but a good number near the Beltline. Passed by the Hive development recently (completed earlier this summer) and it's definitely not fully leased out yet.