[nfitz]

When they talk about 'light rail' I think they're referring to rail trains like the Scarborough LRT. This is not the same as streetcars that we're talking about here.

Looking at their page on light rail - http://www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/regional/ltp/capital/ltpsdec2000/thematicfactsheets/lightrail - they include both stuff like that, and also stuff like Nottingham Express Transit and Manchester Metrolink which are very comparable to Transit City.

Anecdotally, I've encountered more than one Torontonian who will happily ride streetcars and subway trains, but wouldn't get caught dead on a bus ... I don't get it ... but they exist.

 

[scarberiankhatru]

Look at the passage from MisterF you quoted. The study was comparing equivalent bus and rail-based services. If you follow the link you'll see that they are comparing LRT to BRT.

I suggest you follow the same links. "They" are Light Rail Now (totally unbiased, I'm sure), and they are comparing LRT to BRT but Tennyson was not. His claim of "equivalent service" is part of a study comparing bus vs rail (including subways and commuter rail) in the most general terms possible, using cherry-picked ridership figures between WWII and the present with all context removed.

Immediately before the "equivalent service" quote, Tennyson says that "Because transit use is a function of travel time, fare, frequency of service, population, and density, increased transit use can not be attributed to rail transit when these other factors are improved." Tacoma was questioning whether equivalent service was being looked at, which it wasn't, but there's also the question of whether or not equivalent service can exist at all.

 

[Hipster Duck]

Ah, another streetcars vs. bus debate!

You know what would give the Giambrone crowd a heart attack? A study that publishes an efficiency comparison between a streetcar traveling in its own ROW and a bus traveling on a conventional lane on a one way street. That would combine two Toronto transport taboos in one, and I'm pretty sure I know which of the two would win.

 

[GraphicMatt]

I for one completely agree that we should judge transit options entirely on what gets people from Point A to Point B the fastest and dismiss all other metrics as irrelevant.

I don't care about anything else! Does it go fast? How fast does it go? Does it go SUPER FAST?

 

[CDL.TO]

I for one completely agree that we should judge transit options entirely on what gets people from Point A to Point B the fastest and dismiss all other metrics as irrelevant.

I don't care about anything else! Does it go fast? How fast does it go? Does it go SUPER FAST?

I figure catapults would be a quick way to get around.

 

[GraphicMatt]

I figure catapults would be a quick way to get around.

As long as they go to Scarborough Town Centre!!

 

[doady]

I suppose I would anti-bus too if I had to ride the Orion VII every day.

 

[kettal]

Yeah. St. Denis, St. Laurent, the Danforth...they'd all be completely dead if it weren't for their streetcars.

Next time read the quote before responding to it? I said calmed traffic, not streetcar mixed traffic. Danforth does an excellent job calming itself with traffic. Except for the eastern end of Danforth which is indeed crummy.

 

[kEiThZ]

What's a fraction though ... 99/100ths is a fraction ... 1/1000th is a fraction. Serious question really; what's the cost of BRT compared to LRT? The garage costs are similiar. The vehicle costs are more expensive by some estimates. The operating costs are higher. The ROW costs are lower ... but how much lower; there's still a lot of work to be done for a Kingston Road-style BRT.

How much does it cost to pave over with some asphalt and mark it up with white paint? There's plenty of room from McCowan onwards to build curbside bus lanes. I am willing to bet they could get the entire stretch from McCowan until Meadowvale done in one summer and do it for 10% of the cost of TC for that stretch.

Fair enough ... with current traffic patterns. However traffic is supposed to worsen over the next 10-25 years. Places to Grow puts 1-million more people in the city, and growth continues in York and Durham. What is Sheppard east of Agincourt going to look like in 2025? Using history as a guide for the future, it will be gridlocked by then.

Sheppard east of Agincourt is going to look exactly like it does today in 2025. Other than the development at Markham and Sheppard there is very little increased density or streetside commercial strips being planned or being built. You can look up zoning applications if you think I am wrong. You won't find too many for this stretch. It's already built up with single family homes for most of the way. And that's not going to change any time soon. Not very many of those extra million are going to be living along Sheppard East (between McCowan and Meadowvale at least). And if that's the city's plan then why are they still allowing town houses on the few patches of developable land left along Sheppard East? They're building townhouses at Meadowvale and Sheppard. The only condos up along this stretch are at Markham and Sheppard. So this stretch is most definitely not going to get gridlocked by then.

 

[kEiThZ]

I for one completely agree that we should judge transit options entirely on what gets people from Point A to Point B the fastest and dismiss all other metrics as irrelevant.

I don't care about anything else! Does it go fast? How fast does it go? Does it go SUPER FAST?

I wholeheartedly agree. However, Transit City is not based on speed or ridership. It's based on cost. The EA agreed that more riders would use a subway and that the subway would be faster. However, we have a plan for a slower system with less capacity which attracts less riders, and that's all according to the TTC's own EA.

 

[nfitz]

I suppose I would anti-bus too if I had to ride the Orion VII every day.

It is indeed a horrific bus. I'm amazed that the TTC have kept purchasing the things. The lack of 100% low-floor makes passenger circulation terrible. Apart from the stairs, the old GM buses were light-years ahead. And often more comfortable in the summer, as the windows provided proper airflow.

 

[nfitz]

Sheppard east of Agincourt is going to look exactly like it does today in 2025. Other than the development at Markham and Sheppard there is very little increased density or streetside commercial strips being planned or being built.

I wouldn't have thought the increased traffic on Sheppard would come from as much within Toronto. I would have thought it would have come from further growth in Markham and Durham, as more cars leave the highway through the combination of tolling, and congestion, as the 401 and 404 are already fully built-out, and the 407 is getting there suprisingly fast.

Though ulimately, I'd think that the housing and busineses along Sheppard would ultimately be repaced by higher density ... but I agree not before 2025.

I confess though, that I seldom get that far east in rush hour. How much has traffic grown along shepaprd since 1994?

 

[GraphicMatt]

I wholeheartedly agree. However, Transit City is not based on speed or ridership. It's based on cost. The EA agreed that more riders would use a subway and that the subway would be faster. However, we have a plan for a slower system with less capacity which attracts less riders, and that's all according to the TTC's own EA.

I was being sarcastic. I should probably have used more exclamation marks. Using average speed as the sole metric is pretty dumb.

 

[Dan416]

I think speed is overwhelmingly THE most important metric by which to judge public transit. It's why I take GO over MT/TTC. And it's the overriding factor why people choose to drive over public transit. Public transit is SLOW. If Transit City isn't going to significantly improve travel times, why are we spending billions on it? Who is going to switch to TC when it's still much slower than driving?

 

[drum118]

Lets look at some cost for debate.

An Orion VII diesel cost about $700,000 with a life cycle of 18 years by TTC standards.

An Orion VIIR Hybrid cost about $1m with a life cycle of 18 years.

The government is pushing 12 years to keep companies busy and fleet up to date.

The new LRT's are costing about $4.2m with a life cycle of 30-50 years.

I said to move 5,000 riders/hr, you need 100 buses or 32 LRT's.

100 buses cost $70m for diesel or $100m for Hybrid.

32 LRT's cost $134.4m

Battery have to be replace every 5 years for a cost of $65,000/bus or $6.5m.

Buses go under mid life rebuilt at a cost of $150,000 or $15m/100

An LRT will go under mid life rebuilt at about $250,000 or $13m/32

Buses will have to be replace after 18 years and using today cost, that another $70m/$100m

Over the 36 years life of an LRT, those LRT's will cost $147.4m.

To do the same 36 years for buses, it will cost $170m for diesel and $230m for Hybrid plus $450,000/bus for batteries or $45m for a total cost of $275m

If the buses are replace every 12 years with no mid life work, you are looking at $210m for diesel and $345m for Hybrid.

Clearly it shows LRT's are cheaper from a capital cost for a time span of 36 years than buses.

At the same time, cost saving for drivers alone at $65,000/yr not allowing increase that will reach just over $85,000 over 20 years for 100 bus drivers vs. 32 LRT's $130m - $42m for a saving of $88m

Bus cost for diesel is $340m including 100 drivers only
Bus cost for Hybrid is $475m including 100 drivers only
LRT cost is $235.4m including 32 drivers only

Total saving is between $104.6n to $239.4m

Now some of that saving will be reduce to replace tracks and switches as well overhead. How much depends on the length of the line.

Cost to replace the ROW regardless if it LRT's or buses has to be looked at over time, but we do know LRT ROW will last longer than a bus ROW using 100 buses per hour. How fast is another exercise.

It is a given fact that certain people will never ride buses regardless how fast it will get them to where they are going, yet will ride steel wheels.

It cost TTC $110/hr to put a vehicle on the road so TTC said.

At $110/hr for 100 buses for 40hr week and 51 weeks a year, you are looking at about in total of $22.44m.

For 32 LRT drivers, you are looking at $7.1881m or $15.3m less than buses.

Over 20 years, labour saving is about $306m not including increase of wages.

I'm not going to factor in other cost saving cause by LRT, but it clearly shows the back end cost far off sets any front end cost factor to build LRT lines vs. buses/BRT.