PUBLICATION: GLOBE AND MAIL
IDN: 082420226
DATE: 2008.08.29
PAGE: A15 (ILLUS)
BYLINE: MARCUS GEE
SECTION: Comment Column
EDITION: Metro
DATELINE:
WORDS: 741
WORD COUNT: 745
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Russia don't get no respect? That's because it shot itself in the foot
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MARCUS GEE
mgee@globeandmail.com When Russia sent troops into Georgia earlier this month, it hoped to fire a shot across the bow of the encroaching West. In reality, it just shot itself in the foot.
Consider all that has happened since Moscow's brilliant coup in the Caucasus: * Georgia, the country it hoped to subdue, has emerged in international opinion as a victim of crude Russian aggression. Western leaders from Washington to Bonn have spoken out for Georgia's right to independence and territorial integrity.
* Ukraine, which Moscow had hoped to intimidate, has become keener than ever to join NATO and bind itself to the West to fend off Russia. In Kiev yesterday, Britain's Foreign Secretary led a chorus of Western support for Ukraine.
* Poland, ever wary of Russia, overcame months of hesitation and jumped to sign a deal to place U.S. missile-defence installations on its soil. Russia has battled this for years.
* Moscow's stock market plunged as investors took fright at the prospect of a new Cold War.
* China and several Central Asian countries snubbed Moscow's call for support over Georgia. Instead, the Shanghai Co-operation Organization, which the Kremlin helped create as a counterweight to Western institutions such as NATO and the European Union, denounced the use of force in a statement issued yesterday.
This is victory? Russia hoped to accomplish two things with its blow against Georgia.
The first was to show Georgia and other countries in what used to be the Soviet Union that Moscow was still boss and that they would be foolish to break free from its sphere of influence and ally themselves with the West. That has backfired spectacularly. Every independent country on Russia's periphery, from the Baltic to the Black Sea, is now seeking Western protection from the Russian bear.
The second objective was to stick a finger in the West's eye - payback, as the Kremlin saw it, for all the slights it has suffered since the end of the Cold War, from missile defence to the expansion of NATO into the former East Bloc to Western support for an independent Kosovo. At first, it seemed to succeed. Taken unawares by the Russian move, Western leaders could only bluster impotently as Russian tanks held (and still hold in some places) positions within Georgia, Washington's darling for its embrace of democracy and the West. You could almost hear the champagne corks pop in the Kremlin.
Ah, but the cost. NATO has suspended its dialogue with Russia.
There is talk of blocking its entry to the World Trade Organization and ejecting it from the Group of Eight. The whole strategy of trying to integrate Russia into the diplomatic, economic and security structures of the international community is under question as Western countries reassess their relationship with Russia in light of its brutishness in Georgia.
Russia's reputation lies in rags. Whatever hope it might have had of being accepted as a responsible power that plays by the rules has been set back years. In the eyes of the world, it is once again seen as it was in Soviet days: as a dangerous thug.
Does Russia care? Flushed with its triumph over the annoying gnat on its southern flank, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and President Dmitry Medvedev say, in essence, that the West can go hang. Mr. Medvedev said this week it would be "no great loss" if NATO broke its relationship with Russia. And he says he's not worried about the threat of Western sanctions, either. And why, ask Russian nationalists, should he be? After all, Russia has oil, and the run-up in prices has left it sitting on a pile of cash.
But Russia is deluding itself if it thinks it can shrug off the world's opinion. These are not Soviet days, when a sprawling empire with a closed economy could exist in splendid isolation. If Moscow manages to achieve ostracism with its rogue behaviour, it will suffer real damage. The oil will dry up or fall to a saner price. Europe, now inclined to mute its criticism because it depends on Russian energy supplies, will find other sources. Investors will park their money somewhere else.
Instead of bringing it more power and wealth, Moscow's chest-thumping will only make it weaker and poorer. If the Kremlin was looking for respect when it took on Georgia, it chose an odd way to earn it.
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GEOGRAPHIC NAME: Russia; Georgia; Poland; Ukraine
SUBJECT TERM:foreign policy; foreign relations; strife; political