All HousingNow projects are effectively on hold because none of them work in today's interest rate environment. Some of the selected proponents from the ones that have already been awarded are continuing with planning application and design work, but none of them are in a position to be able to build anything.

The Province's announcement last week helps a bit, but it's not enough by itself: some combination of the three levels of government are going to have to make significant policy and programmatic changes if they want to see affordable housing built at scale in this environment.
Oh man thats rough news... The rates won't be going down at least for a year. Does that mean we will loose a year just literally sitting around?
 
Oh man thats rough news... The rates won't be going down at least for a year. Does that mean we will loose a year just literally sitting around?

It's pretty bleak out there, to be honest. The answer to your question depends on the degree to which governments are willing to make changes -- I'm not sure I can accurately handicap the likelihood of that.

What I can say is that, despite the fact that basically everyone in the industry who's involved in affordable housing delivery and advocacy has been ringing this alarm bell for about 6 months now, the only level of government that has actually done anything in response so far is the Ontario Government, and the impacts of their recently announced housing bill will be positive but insufficient. The Feds haven't done anything to their supportive programs to make them viable in this climate, nor has the City of Toronto (though, again, the Province's announcement forces their hand a bit at the margins) done anything either programmatically or in terms of changing policy or the planning process.
 
Oh man thats rough news... The rates won't be going down at least for a year. Does that mean we will loose a year just literally sitting around?
Any HOUSING NOW and OPEN DOOR sites approved and awarded more than a year ago are all in the same place. Essentially, "frozen" until the construction math works.

This STORY is repeating over & over - https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/20...rough-affordable-housing-project-at-risk.html

Feds via CMHC or the Infrastructure Bank need to offer below 2% interest construction loans to make the math work.

RAPID HOUSING projects are the only ones that are proceeding, because the Feds provide direct-grants to those projects.
 
Any HOUSING NOW and OPEN DOOR sites approved and awarded more than a year ago are all in the same place. Essentially, "frozen" until the construction math works.

This STORY is repeating over & over - https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/20...rough-affordable-housing-project-at-risk.html

Feds via CMHC or the Infrastructure Bank need to offer below 2% interest construction loans to make the math work.

RAPID HOUSING projects are the only ones that are proceeding, because the Feds provide direct-grants to those projects.
Would you say all Housing Now and Open Door projects are frozen until the rates get back to below 2%? If so that may never happen again lol... If so we will be at a crossroads until Trudeau and Tory contribute more $. Ford has already contributed $ from the above posts.

Is that a fair assessment ? @HousingNowTO
 
Would you say all Housing Now and Open Door projects are frozen until the rates get back to below 2%? If so that may never happen again lol... If so we will be at a crossroads until Trudeau and Tory contribute more $. Ford has already contributed $ from the above posts.

Is that a fair assessment ? @HousingNowTO
Not really, the Federal Government does not have to charge around the Bank of Canada "overnight rate" on construction loans for new affordable housing (or rental housing) developments - but that's what CMHC is currently directed to do (ie. "make money on those loans").

The Infrastructure Bank can "accept below-market returns" - BUT it is currently not allowed to invest in Housing, because that is CMHC's job.

We don't have to wait for Bank-Rates to drop below 2%, we just need Ottawa to direct its funding agencies to "take the haircut" on the loans.
 
Not really, the Federal Government does not have to charge around the Bank of Canada "overnight rate" on construction loans for new affordable housing (or rental housing) developments - but that's what CMHC is currently directed to do (ie. "make money on those loans").

The Infrastructure Bank can "accept below-market returns" - BUT it is currently not allowed to invest in Housing, because that is CMHC's job.

We don't have to wait for Bank-Rates to drop below 2%, we just need Ottawa to direct its funding agencies to "take the haircut" on the loans.
Got it! What are the chances of that happening? Any rough timeline? If Ottawa doesn't do that then are we saying we will never get Housing Now project built? What is the alternative plan or back up contingency plan? Would be ridiculous to think that @HousingNowTO will just be sitting around twiddling their thumbs and waiting.
 
Got it! What are the chances of that happening? Any rough timeline? If Ottawa doesn't do that then are we saying we will never get Housing Now project built? What is the alternative plan or back up contingency plan? Would be ridiculous to think that @HousingNowTO will just be sitting around twiddling their thumbs and waiting.
If Ottawa (or someone else with access to cheap BILLIONS) doesn't show-up with the money to fund the construction at below-market rates, then almost all of the OPEN DOOR and HOUSING NOW projects will stall out.

This Vancouver video is worth a watch - just to show how the funding gaps have been filled for below-market rental in the past.

The answer in a word is = "MONEY".

 
If Ottawa (or someone else with access to cheap BILLIONS) doesn't show-up with the money to fund the construction at below-market rates, then almost all of the OPEN DOOR and HOUSING NOW projects will stall out.

This Vancouver video is worth a watch - just to show how the funding gaps have been filled for below-market rental in the past.

The answer in a word is = "MONEY".

Really good video! Thanks for sharing. Gave great insights.

So basically long story short Housing Now and Open Door are pretty much screwed for the foreseeable future until someone steps up to the table. Keep us posted what the result of the Nov 18 meeting and all new timelines are.
 
Would you say all Housing Now and Open Door projects are frozen until the rates get back to below 2%? If so that may never happen again lol... If so we will be at a crossroads until Trudeau and Tory contribute more $. Ford has already contributed $ from the above posts.

Is that a fair assessment ? @HousingNowTO

I've been meaning to post something..........this thread seems as apt as any.

**** The following post/comments is about the HousingNow program in its entirety, just as the question is above. @HousingNowTO may wish to join the commentary.

I spoke with a few members of Council and staff in the last week on a number of subjects.

One of them was the moribund state of this program.

I asked about the never arriving CMHC loans...........

I'm not going to reveal certain details; but I will reveal the gist.

IF CMHC came through tomorrow at the asked for rates; virtually none of the sites, as zoned, are currently deemed viable. The escalation of construction costs (both labour and materials) has made the financial models either outright unworkable or too highly risked.

Note :I'm not speaking about any one site here, and there may be the odd exception........but overall internal feeling in the City is that almost every single project is going to have to come back in to the planning process and before Council in order to add more density.

In some cases, this may be moderately straight-forward, but even then we're talking about (very charitably) many months more of delays.

If, in some cases, the additional density requires modifying proposals beyond merely adding floors, but changing road layouts and various other neighbourhood plans, the delays could be considerably longer.

Long and short of it, there is little hope of many, or perhaps any of the projects breaking ground this year.

To say I'm disappointed is to understate things rather considerably. But my preferred choice of words would contravene forum etiquette.
 
Glad to see that the Feds, Province, and City are just oh so serious in addressing the "housing crisis" that they say they're addressing. Honestly these governments are starting to piss me off with their ineptitude in addressing our housing problems.

-The Feds "provide money" but then wont let it flow out for whatever their idiotic reasoning is, meanwhile they have no problem pumping out GST/ Child Benefit top ups and whatever other vote buying mechanism scheme they have.

-The Province is too busy being in bed with developers while allowing them to ransack Greenbelts to make more money for themselves in quid pro quos, which wont address housing deficiencies.

-The City studies things away until the sun dont shine, then refer things to committees, then study again, then finally approve a program many many years down into the future.

I wish we could throw out half of our politicians into this -30+ weather with wind chill for a night, maybe that would light a fire under their collective delinquent rear ends.
 
Glad to see that the Feds, Province, and City are just oh so serious in addressing the "housing crisis" that they say they're addressing. Honestly these governments are starting to piss me off with their ineptitude in addressing our housing problems.

-The Feds "provide money" but then wont let it flow out for whatever their idiotic reasoning is, meanwhile they have no problem pumping out GST/ Child Benefit top ups and whatever other vote buying mechanism scheme they have.

-The Province is too busy being in bed with developers while allowing them to ransack Greenbelts to make more money for themselves in quid pro quos, which wont address housing deficiencies.

-The City studies things away until the sun dont shine, then refer things to committees, then study again, then finally approve a program many many years down into the future.

I wish we could throw out half of our politicians into this -30+ weather with wind chill for a night, maybe that would light a fire under their collective delinquent rear ends.
This is the same Province who used an MZO to sell off the Foundry site to one of their friends almost 3 years ago. Then tried to make it look less sketchy by insisting on some Market rate housing. Has anything actually happened? Not really, though some of the site was demolished before public pressure stopped it.
 
I've been meaning to post something..........this thread seems as apt as any.

**** The following post/comments is about the HousingNow program in its entirety, just as the question is above. @HousingNowTO may wish to join the commentary.

I spoke with a few members of Council and staff in the last week on a number of subjects.

One of them was the moribund state of this program.

I asked about the never arriving CMHC loans...........

I'm not going to reveal certain details; but I will reveal the gist.

IF CMHC came through tomorrow at the asked for rates; virtually none of the sites, as zoned, are currently deemed viable. The escalation of construction costs (both labour and materials) has made the financial models either outright unworkable or too highly risked.

Note :I'm not speaking about any one site here, and there may be the odd exception........but overall internal feeling in the City is that almost every single project is going to have to come back in to the planning process and before Council in order to add more density.

In some cases, this may be moderately straight-forward, but even then we're talking about (very charitably) many months more of delays.

If, in some cases, the additional density requires modifying proposals beyond merely adding floors, but changing road layouts and various other neighbourhood plans, the delays could be considerably longer.

Long and short of it, there is little hope of many, or perhaps any of the projects breaking ground this year.

To say I'm disappointed is to understate things rather considerably. But my preferred choice of words would contravene forum etiquette.
Yeah, we can essentially co-sign (as of FEB 2023) to EVERYTHING that @Northern Light is saying.

Our answers above about "quick construction loans at under 2%" were from 3-months ago (Nov. 2, 2022) - and the site-by-site math has only gotten worse over that quarter on those early Phase 1 'approved' projects.

We have a little more faith in the viability-math on Phase-2 sites like this one in City Place, and even the Phase 1 - Block 1 site at Kipling station / Etobicoke Centre that was just awarded to TRICON this Summer.

New Tracker & Milestone Reports are at the CreateTO Board meeting on Monday afternoon... and projects are still stuck in quick-sand.

 
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@Northern Light @HousingNowTO What about the Don Mills and Eglinton area 2 housing now projects... Wouldn't you say they will proceed? Or will they essentially be cancelled and sold to private developers?

Those projects are key for the area as there is a new elementary school, multiple daycares and as well a gateway into the area.
 
@Northern Light @HousingNowTO What about the Don Mills and Eglinton area 2 housing now projects... Wouldn't you say they will proceed? Or will they essentially be cancelled and sold to private developers?

Those projects are key for the area as there is a new elementary school, multiple daycares and as well a gateway into the area.
The MATH on those Don Mills sites isn't as terrible as on some of the others (good height & denisty) - also, because they haven't gone out to RFP yet - and they are at the intersection of 2 x brand new Transit-lines in affluent ridings there's a good political argument to be made in Ottawa for a fire-hose of money to be sprayed onto them over the next 2-3 years. The Province making an up-front $60-ish MILLION commitment to the new TDSB school in podium would also help them along.
 

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