[Riverdale Rink Rat]

So, taking "billions upon billions" at its minimum possible amount.....is it your opinion that the games are at least $2B over budget? Can you detail those (before you start, there was from day one a separate and publicly announced budget for the village so that does not count).

No, I don't think they're CAD2bn over budget, yet. At this point, it looks like the 'widely reported' (but not, you know, actually added up anywhere…) figure is CAD1.4bn + CAD700mn, or CAD2.1bn. This does not include the UP rail link at CAD500mn, guaranteed to be ready for the Games. Should it? I think so, as we would not have built the UP link without it. It does not include the $25mn remediation of the pool site before construction could begin, paid for by the city. It does not include 'security costs', apparently -- a number which skyrocketed ASTRONOMICALLY for Vancouver, which had LESS athletes.

'Billions upon billions' in cost overruns was undoubtably an exaggeration. So, UP link + 25mn + conservative $200mn for security and I'm at $725mn over budget. But, I'm sure proponents will scoff at my including infrastructure we would otherwise not have built. That's their choice.

However, unlike many Olympic games, there will be very little in TV nor gate revenues for a Pan Ams. So, $1.4bn + $700mn + $725mn - $150mn means the actual, paid-for-by-taxes cost of this Games is $2.675bn (unless we-the-people participate in the sale of the Athletes' Village as condos? I don't believe that's the case, but I stand to be corrected.) For that, we will have a lot of fun and get some niche sporting venues. Really?

IMHO, World Pride is a way, way better promotion for Toronto, for a way, way lower cost.

OK, I'll stop. Nothing like preaching over the heads of the converted… ;-)

 

[TOareaFan]

No, I don't think they're CAD2bn over budget, yet. At this point, it looks like the 'widely reported' (but not, you know, actually added up anywhere…) figure is CAD1.4bn + CAD700mn, or CAD2.1bn. This does not include the UP rail link at CAD500mn, guaranteed to be ready for the Games. Should it? I think so, as we would not have built the UP link without it. It does not include the $25mn remediation of the pool site before construction could begin, paid for by the city. It does not include 'security costs', apparently -- a number which skyrocketed ASTRONOMICALLY for Vancouver, which had LESS athletes.

'Billions upon billions' in cost overruns was undoubtably an exaggeration. So, UP link + 25mn + conservative $200mn for security and I'm at $725mn over budget. But, I'm sure proponents will scoff at my including infrastructure we would otherwise not have built. That's their choice.

However, unlike many Olympic games, there will be very little in TV nor gate revenues for a Pan Ams. So, $1.4bn + $700mn + $725mn - $150mn means the actual, paid-for-by-taxes cost of this Games is $2.675bn (unless we-the-people participate in the sale of the Athletes' Village as condos? I don't believe that's the case, but I stand to be corrected.) For that, we will have a lot of fun and get some niche sporting venues. Really?

IMHO, World Pride is a way, way better promotion for Toronto, for a way, way lower cost.

OK, I'll stop. Nothing like preaching over the heads of the converted… ;-)

The only comment I would make is that we started planning the link to Pearson (in earnest) in May 2003 when a RFP was issued yes the deal got protracted and yes the EAs took a long time and yes we were never able to close a deal with the selected private sector proponent and yes it was taken over as a public project in mid-2010 but I find it a bit hard to say we only built it for the Pan Am games when the whole process started about 6 years before we were awarded the Pan Am games.

The "tie" to the games is, I believe, that once we took it in as a public project and we already knew we had the games the decision was made to have it finished before the games....but I don't think it is right to say this rail link is only being built because we got the games.

It is disturbing that we don't have estimates/budgets on the security and transportation costs as these would appear to be integral parts of any games bid/hosting.

 

[nfitz]

This does not include the UP rail link at CAD500mn, guaranteed to be ready for the Games.

??? The Chretien government issued the RFP for the airport link in 2001 and provided funding for the UP link back in 2003. The process was falling apart, and was finally passed to Metrolinx in 2008, and it's been going fairly well since. Toronto didn't win the Pan Am games until 2009.

The timing of making sure that the link is running before the games in 2015 is certainly influenced by the award. But job happening, and the cost, aren't related. With a relatively reasonable timeframe, no reports of serious delays or cost overruns ... the Pan Am games might actually have helped to keep the project on time ... maybe saving a bit of money.

 

[toforumer]

So we're starting to get a feel of how the competition will be in 2024. What are your thoughts? Can we beat these cities?

North America
Canada - Toronto is the only interested city and only one that the COC would approve
USA - They're currently in the process determining which city to go with. These are the interested cities: Los Angeles, San Francisco, Philadelphia, Boston, and Dallas. Only Los Angeles would be able to compete with the world cities on the international stage but LA has already hosted two times, the last being 1984.

South America
No countries interested

Europe
Italy - Rome looks to be bidding again. The Italian PM announced today that he will back the bid. But they pulled out of the 2020 race because of how bad their economic crisis is. Things haven't gotten any better so I'm still clueless why this new PM would back this bid. All they have to do is take a look at what happened to Madrid when they bid foolishly for 2020.
France - Paris has long been rumoured to be bidding. No formal announcements have been made yet. This city will definitely be the front runner.
Azerbaijan - Baku previously bid for the 2016 and 2020 Olympics. Never got shortlisted. We can expect the same outcome this time around.
Russia - St. Petersburg have publicly stated they will be on board for this. I highly doubt that they will be competitive. Sochi is hosting the 2014 Winter Olympics.
Germany - Berlin and Hamburg have been rumoured to bid. Today, Hamburg announced the bid is dead due to the outcome of the referendum held in Munich for their 2022 Olympics bid. The public voted against it. This has doomed any potential bids from Germany in the near future including Berlin.

Asia
Qatar - Doha has previously bid and will continue too. With the FIFA scandal still lingering they definitely will not be shortlisted.

Africa
South Africa - Durban has been touted as SA's bid for 2024. People think the IOC will want to go here as Africa is the last continent that has never hosted an Olympics. However, there are a lot more pressing issue to be dealt with in this country than spending all this money on an Olympics.

I would say these would ultimately be the shortlisted cities:

Toronto
Paris
Los Angeles
Rome
Durban

 

[FNTS]

Wow, tough competition

 

[toforumer]

Toronto bid for 2024 Olympics eyed



TORONTO - Former International Olympic Committee member and Toronto 1996 bid chief Paul Henderson believes a possible Toronto bid for the 2024 Summer Olympics — which is gaining momentum — should be switched to 2028.



Both Henderson and Bob Richardson, who was the chief operating officer for Toronto’s failed 2008 bid, were approached recently by the professional services firm Ernst & Young on behalf of the city to get their thoughts on Toronto bidding for the 2024 Games. A report is to be submitted to council’s economic development committee.



And while Henderson supports a bid for the 2024 Games, he believes Toronto would have a better chance of winning the 2028 Olympics based on the fact that the IOC recently granted Tokyo the 2020 Games. Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, is hosting in 2016.



“The way IOC does it, the games go to Europe, the Americas and then somewhere else,” Henderson said Tuesday. “And what most people don’t realize is that the IOC considers North and South America the same continent. Now there are always funny things once in a while that change that, but normally that’s the thought process.



“If the IOC had gone to Istanbul or Madrid instead of Tokyo (for 2020), then I think Toronto would have a much better chance for 2024. Now I predict 2024 will go to Europe,” he added.



The winning bid for the 2024 Games will be selected by the IOC in 2017. Henderson and Richardson said they’re all for Toronto bidding for another Olympics if it’s done properly.



Henderson, a former president of the International Sailing Federation, said Toronto would have to let the IOC know if it wants to bid for the 2024 Games by next fall, with the formal bidding process beginning in 2015.



Richardson, president of the Toronto public and government relations firm Devon Group, said there are huge positives in bidding for major events.



“I think all you have to do is look at Vancouver as an example of that with Expo 86 and 2010 Olympics,” he said. “There’s always some downside risks. You have to manage the infrastructure well and make sure your costs work out and that there are good agreements between governments.



“But my view has always been projects (like these) are major benefits to cities and we ought to take a look at them.”



Richardson said just bidding for an Olympics can be beneficial to a city, adding that the 2008 bid was helpful in Toronto winning the 2015 Pan Am Games and resulted in the federal and provincial governments pledging hundreds of millions of dollars to the waterfront development.



Though the 1996 and 2008 Toronto bids were unsuccessful, both were considered among the best technical bids for those games, which went to Atlanta and Beijing respectfully. In June 2012, Toronto city council voted in favour of putting together a report on the feasibility of hosting a Olympics in 2024 and a World’s Fair.

 

[StruongTeam]

what type of infrastructure don't we need?

 

[ChesterCopperpot]

Report going before council on Monday

http://app.toronto.ca/tmmis/viewAgendaItemHistory.do?item=2014.ED28.4

http://www.toronto.ca/legdocs/mmis/2014/ed/bgrd/backgroundfile-65721.pdf

 

[JasonParis]

FYI...

Toronto Mulls Olympic Bet Once Again

 

[ChesterCopperpot]

The key numbers

 

[Solid Snake]

What caught my attention

The Games

Strengths
► The City is in the Eastern time zone, which allows Olympics to be in U.S. primetime and therefore increasing the potential amount of television rights money flowing into the Games
► The Vancouver Olympic Games were a success and the results should provide the IOC with some comfort in respect of another Canadian city hosting the Games
► Existing Pan Am sites could be used for training facilities

Weaknesses
► Existing facilities and sites to be used for the Pan Am Games may not meet Olympic standards for a variety of reasons
► Certain sites that were planned for the 2008 Games bid are no longer available
► Due to Toronto’s geography, it may be necessary to have several sites away from the main Olympic cluster, thus lengthening travel times and bringing traffic into play

Opportunities
► No North American city has hosted the Summer Olympics since Atlanta in 1996 so 2024 could be a good chance to bring the Games back to this continent
► Depending on the site of the main Olympic complex, it may be possible to kick start development in an underdeveloped part of the City
► Toronto is a very diverse city and this may play well with members of the IOC
► Provided the Pan Am Games go well in 2015, Toronto will be able to demonstrate that it is capable of organizing a large scale sporting event
► Olympic Games often leave significant legacy items for the host city (sporting venues, transit infrastructure, etc.)

Threats
► The awarding of the 2020 games to Tokyo may be detrimental. Since World War II the Summer Olympics have never been out of Europe for more than 12 years in a row. As the 2016 games will be in Rio de Janeiro and 2020 in Tokyo, tradition may put the summer games back in Europe for 2024.
► The United States is likely to bid for the 2024 Games and any bid by the City may be in direct competition with a very strong and high profile U.S. city
► The IOC views North and South America as one region, so the Rio Games of 2016 may work against another bid from the Americas
► The awarding of the Games is a highly political process and there is no guarantee that the best technical bid will be awarded the Games


Best Site for Olympics


Woodbine Racetrack Centre

Pros

► Large undeveloped area within the City
► Large footprint of land could be used for a number of events
► Good access to highways as Highway 427 is nearby
► Close to Pearson International Airport

Cons

► Limited transit links, although a spur from the airport link could be built
► Not owned by the City
► Few hotels in the area
► Games may not be consistent with the owner’s plans for future development


Downsview/York University

Pros

► Large enough footprint to house a number of key venues although the Downsview site has approximately 240 acres of space that could be used for Games venues
► Currently underdeveloped and could use the Games as a catalyst
► Good access to highways, subway and airport
► Two facilities are close together
► York has significant undeveloped land
► Several training sites could be located at York as a result of Pan Am facility construction

Cons

► Land not owned by the City
► Height restrictions as a result of the airport at Downsview
► Not close to downtown and few hotels in the area
► Governance issues at York in terms of land north of Steeles
► Does not lend itself to a “compact” Games given the need to spread out the venues
► Size(100 hectares available for Games use) may limit the number of venues that can be included in the main cluster


Exhibition Place/Ontario Place

Pros

► Close to downtown and hotels
► Large footprint of land (197 acres in total for Exhibition Place and approximately 100 acres for Ontario Place) could be used for a number of events but much of the site has buildings on it with approximately 15 acres of parking lot being the only significant unoccupied space
► Good access to highways and likely close to the athletes’ village
► Being used for Pan Am Games

Cons

► Many buildings are listed as heritage sites and special consideration may need to be given to them
► No significant mass transit connections although an upgrade to the current Exhibition GO station may assist in this regard
► The future of Ontario Place is currently uncertain
► Impact on the current Indy race is unknown as it uses the grounds extensively
► Impact of BMO Field is uncertain


The Port Lands

Pros

► Large enough footprint to house a number of key venues as the City owns in excess of 400 acres in the are
► Currently underdeveloped and could use the Games as a catalyst
► Potentially a very picturesque view of the City if redevelopment were to occur
► Disruption to the rest of the City could be contained in one area
► Security costs could be minimized if many venues were in one cluster
► Close to downtown and major hotels

Cons

► Geographically isolated with few transit links
► Access could be problematic with current road network
► There may be flooding concerns, but EY notes this area was not impacted by flooding as a result of the July 2013 “super storm”
► Site preparation is estimated to cost in excess of $1.1 billion by certain governmental agencies but this number has not been fully updated to include costs related to the Games
► What is to be done with the venues once the Games are complete and does that fit with the City’s current plan for the area?
► Not currently serviced with sewers etc.
► Environmental remediation required

 

[TOareaFan]

What caught my attention




Woodbine Racetrack Centre

Pros

► Large undeveloped area within the City
► Large footprint of land could be used for a number of events
► Good access to highways as Highway 427 is nearby
► Close to Pearson International Airport

Cons

► Limited transit links, although a spur from the airport link could be built
► Not owned by the City
► Few hotels in the area
► Games may not be consistent with the owner’s plans for future development

Not to quibble too much with an otherwise good summation.....but aren't the two statements I bolded sort of in conflict with each other....is the airport area not the second biggest concentration of hotel rooms in the region behind "downtown"?

 

[Tewder]

The BlogTO article comments on the cost of the games and the opposition this is likely to rally, but doesn't the report state quite explicitly that the IOC requires that almost all costs be covered by higher levels of government (federal, provincial) and not by the hosting city itself (other than donations of land etc)? If this is so I'm not sure i understand the opposition. Given the historic dearth of federal and provincial government infrastructure funding in this city shouldn't all Torontonians be applauding this opportunity?? It's not as though the provincial and federal government money not spent on the Olympics would be earmarked for Toronto, and in fact would probably just go to some other more politically expedient jurisdiction anyway.

 

[TOareaFan]

The BlogTO article comments on the cost of the games and the opposition this is likely to rally, but doesn't the report state quite explicitly that the IOC requires that almost all costs be covered by higher levels of government (federal, provincial) and not by the hosting city itself (other than donations of land etc)? If this is so I'm not sure i understand the opposition. Given the historic dearth of federal and provincial government infrastructure funding in this city shouldn't all Torontonians be applauding this opportunity?? It's not as though the provincial and federal government money not spent on the Olympics would be earmarked for Toronto, and in fact would probably just go to some other more politically expedient jurisdiction anyway.

I think all the IOC requires is that games cost is guaranteed by the national government....not necessarily that the actual budgeted funds come from them.

So if the deal in Canada between Toronto/Ontario/Canada is that Toronto find some/most/all of the money themselves....the IOC won't care/intervene as long as the games and its budget is guaranteed by Canada.

 

[toforumer]

From the comments I've read most citizens of this city believe the city will be footing the entire bill. They even think the $50 million cost to put the bid forward to the IOC will be paid by the taxpayers meanwhile it is stated that amount will be covered by corporate sponsorships. Anyways, it will be a tough feat to sell this to the citizens of this city. The amount of infrastructure projects that we would get out of this sells me plus the fact we would be on the world stage. The DRL and other crucial transportation projects that a lot of Torontonians complain about would likely be built in time for 2024 if the bid is successful. We will get a brand new stadium that could be used for the Argos (downscaled) or entice the NFL to finally take shop in Canada as we would finally have that crucial stadium in place. Waterfront development will be fast tracked. Toronto will be the home training ground for Summer sport bring in high performance athletes from across Canada and North America.

The question really is do we have a great chance to win 2024? It looks destined for Europe but North America is in a good position as well. The USA should be good competitors but could a city like Washington, Philadelphia or even Los Angeles (they last hosted in 1984, this would be their 3rd Olympics) beat Toronto?