[salsa]

Well yeah, but at least there's some methodology to them. It's not like the experts stare at a maps all day and say "ehhhh I guess thing thing will move about 7,000 people. Yea that sounds about right to me"

"I see a condo going up on Sheppard. I also see plenty of gas stations and parking lots that might become condos do one day. Maybe. So Yeah a subway could work here."

 

[andrewpmk]

"I see a condo going up on Sheppard. I also see plenty of gas stations and parking lots that might become condos do one day. Maybe. So Yeah a subway could work here."

There is not just one condo, but dozens and dozens going up in that area.

I think that the fact that the Sheppard subway projections in the 1990s and the Sheppard LRT projections in the 2000s were wildly different is a dead giveaway that projections are useless. Ridership will be low if nothing is built and very high if 50 storey condos are built everywhere. It is too hard to predict what it will look like 50 years from now. In general I think that having an overcrowded line is much more of a problem than wasting money on an underused one. Overused infrastructure is much more common problem than underused infrastructure. Very few of the free highways in the GTA are uncongested in rush hour, and the same is true with most parts of the TTC system.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

There is not just one condo, but dozens and dozens going up in that area.

Members have explained why to you why this line of thinking on multiple occasions, Andrew.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Sheppard needs to be completely rezoned to be viable for a subway. They need more condos, especially the Warden to Kennedy part to met the 10000 (I prefer 15000) riders needed for the subway not to be a white elephant.

 

[andrewpmk]

Sheppard needs to be completely rezoned to be viable for a subway. They need more condos, especially the Warden to Kennedy part to met the 10000 (I prefer 15000) riders needed for the subway not to be a white elephant.

There is this thing called the Ontario Municipal Board that does the rezoning for us, even though city council tends to be very anti development. My guess is that if we did start seriously talking about building a subway there then many condos would get built on the eastern part of Sheppard. I think any middle or high income area (Sheppard east of 404 is a middle income area, west of 404 is a high income area) will see plenty of condo development if a subway gets approved. Maybe the Agincourt Mall could get torn down and replaced with condos?

Also I do not like the practice of insisting on absurdly high thresholds for the ridership projection in order to justify a subway. This practically guarantees that any LRT lines that get built will be ridiculously overcrowded like the Spadina streetcar. If Toronto actually had adequate transit funding then Sheppard subway has big advantages in terms of fewer transfers and higher speed even if it only carries 5000-10000/hour. Never mind that building Eglinton LRT as subway between Don Mills and Black Creek only gives much higher capacity for less cost (or elevated in outer sections for somewhat higher cost), so building the world's most expensive LRT line makes absolutely no sense, there is no cost advantage to LRT like there is for Sheppard. Eglinton LRT is far more costly than Canada Line for same capacity.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Sheppard needs to be completely rezoned to be viable for a subway. They need more condos,

No. They don't need more condos. Condos don't to much to generate transit usage.

What Sheppard Line needs is at least one major commercial centre along the route, in addition to plenty of busy bus/streetcar/subway/LRT feeder routes. Without this the Sheppard Line and in fact any subway in Toronto will be dud.

Anyways, Sheppard Line will never become a viable route. You have to look no further than Eglinton Line for proof. That's a route with 1 substantial commercial centre, 1 minor commercial centre, 2 major connecting subway routes and at least a dozen or so high usage bus routes feeding into it. The development needed to make Eglinton viable is light years ahead of Sheppard. Yet Eglinton Line will only move a paltry 12,000 persons in the best case scenario (terminating at STC). If you think that Sheppard Line will ever come close to matching the ridership of Eglinton Line you're kidding yourself.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

No. They don't need more condos. Condos don't to much to generate transit usage.

What Sheppard Line needs is at least one major commercial centre along the route, in addition to plenty of busy bus/streetcar/subway/LRT feeder routes. Without this the Sheppard Line and in fact any subway in Toronto will be dud.

Anyways, Sheppard Line will never become a viable route. You have to look no further than Eglinton Line for proof. That's a route with 1 substantial commercial centre, 1 minor commercial centre, 2 major connecting subway routes and at least a dozen or so high usage bus routes feeding into it. The development needed to make Eglinton viable is light years ahead of Sheppard. Yet Eglinton Line will only move a paltry 10,000 persons in the best case scenario. If you think that Sheppard Line will ever come close to matching the ridership of Eglinton Line, you're kidding yourself.

They have the Agincourt Mall and Scarborough Town Centre right now, and yet the fully built subway will be lucky to reach 8,000 riders as is. The area needs people not more empty office buildings.

Sheppard can become viable if city councillors stopped being so anti development. But because of that, the current route is suburbia, not conductive to high order transit, hence the low ridership.

Of course Eglinton is stuck at 10000. That's not the line going to STC. Even being continuous with the Malvern LRT would add enough riders. The line begins and stops in the middle of nowhere.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Also I do not like the practice of insisting on absurdly high thresholds for the ridership projection in order to justify a subway. This practically guarantees that any LRT lines that get built will be ridiculously overcrowded like the Spadina streetcar.

The 510 Spadina isn't a light rail line. It's a Streetcar in a right-of-way. If it were upgraded to LRT standards, with signal priority and two car LFLRV trains that line wouldn't even be half full at peak hour. In fact it may actually be closer to a quarter full at peak hour, since the capacity of 2 LFLRVs = 4 CLRVs. Off peak the amount of passengers on a 510 Spadina LRT compared to the capacity of the LRT route would be pathetically puny.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

They have the Agincourt Mall and Scarborough Town Centre right now, and yet the fully built subway will be lucky to reach 8,000 riders as is. The area needs people not more empty office buildings.

Well building empty office buildings is pretty stupid. But an office building that isn't vacant easily generates far greater ridership than a condo of the same size.

Sheppard can become viable if city councillors stopped being so anti development. But because of that, the current route is suburbia, not conductive to high order transit, hence the low ridership.

This city is already absorbing all of the development it can. Short of forcing developers to build along the Sheppard Avenue corridor, there isn't much that we can do .

Of course Eglinton is stuck at 10000. That's not the line going to STC

My bad. I made a small error in my post that you're replying too.

The 10,000 pphpd was in reference to the Eglinton-Scarborough Crosstown LRT (the one that goes to STC). Unfortunately, the 10,000 persons number I used was incorrect. It is actually 12,000 persons in peak hour per direction for the Eglinton Scarborough Crosstown LRT. With the line terminating at Kennedy, the Eglinton Crosstown LRT moves about 6,000 persons in peak hour per direction. I've amended my previous posts accordingly.

 

[ehlow]

What andrewpwk has said over and over again is that TTC & Metrolinx ridership projections are bullshit. BUT we should believe HIS personal projections based on his personal observations.

Yes let's plan multi-billion dollar 10 year projects based on andrewpwk's personal observations & his condo counting.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Well building empty office buildings is pretty stupid. But an office building that isn't vacant easily generates far greater ridership than a condo of the same size.

Well then corporate taxes have to continue going down and you have to make STC appealing.

This city is already absorbing all of the development it can. Short of forcing developers to build along the Sheppard Avenue corridor, there isn't much that we can do .

And that's why sheppard is a bad idea, because getting the required ridership is too disruptive.

My bad. I made a small error in my post that you're replying too.

The 10,000 pphpd was in reference to the Eglinton-Scarborough Crosstown LRT (the one that goes to STC). Unfortunately, the 10,000 persons number I used was incorrect. It is actually 12,000 persons in peak hour per direction for the Eglinton Scarborough Crosstown LRT. With the line terminating at Kennedy, the Eglinton Crosstown LRT moves about 6,000 persons in peak hour per direction. I've amended my previous posts accordingly.

I'm really shocked the interlined SRT pulls subway numbers. Regardless, if the Eglington Crosstown had been a subway from black creek to STC would people in Scarborough be complaining? Then again, 6,000 at peak does not warrant an underground central section at all. That's why LRT is supposed to be on the surface and not underground.

What andrewpwk has said over and over again is that TTC & Metrolinx ridership projections are bullshit. BUT we should believe HIS personal projections based on his personal observations.

Yes let's plan multi-billion dollar 10 year projects based on andrewpwk's personal observations & his condo counting.

Your right, but Metrolinx started it by caving in to the flip floppers and vote chasers.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

Well then corporate taxes have to continue going down and you have to make STC appealing.

You must have missed my posting (which you have read) re: MCC and how it was a failure as an office centre. Building/having transit isn't a guarantee for office developments either (see stagnant commercial development at NYCC, Yonge-Eglinton and Yonge-Bloor).

AoD

 

[andrewpmk]

What andrewpwk has said over and over again is that TTC & Metrolinx ridership projections are bullshit. BUT we should believe HIS personal projections based on his personal observations.

Yes let's plan multi-billion dollar 10 year projects based on andrewpwk's personal observations & his condo counting.

To be fair I think that the projections for the Vaughan subway extension are BS in the opposite direction. In other words ridership will be much lower than projected. That is because the Vaughan Centre development will obviously flop. People do not want to live near giant CN railway yards.

I really don't have any idea what ridership will be like, I am just guessing, but I strongly suspect that ridership projections are deliberately inaccurate (either way too low or way too high) and Eglinton could have had much higher capacity for lower cost if it were made a conventional subway with nothing east of Don Mills. At the very least this helps with future expansion, since Toronto will look very different 50 years from now. We shall see whether Eglinton is overcrowded once it opens, I just fear it will be. I do not want it to look like the Spadina streetcar in rush hour.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

You must have missed my posting (which you have read) re: MCC and how it was a failure as an office centre. Building/having transit isn't a guarantee for office developments either (see stagnant commercial development at NYCC, Yonge-Eglinton and Yonge-Bloor).

AoD

I know, I was just making the point. Ultimately I'm saying these places are not appealing at all for business no matter what. I think I was getting to the point you just made, eventually.

 

[ehlow]

To be fair I think that the projections for the Vaughan subway extension are BS in the opposite direction. In other words ridership will be much lower than projected. That is because the Vaughan Centre development will obviously flop. People do not want to live near giant CN railway yards.

I really don't have any idea what ridership will be like, I am just guessing, but I strongly suspect that ridership projections are deliberately inaccurate (either way too low or way too high) and Eglinton could have had much higher capacity for lower cost if it were made a conventional subway with nothing east of Don Mills. At the very least this helps with future expansion, since Toronto will look very different 50 years from now. We shall see whether Eglinton is overcrowded once it opens, I just fear it will be. I do not want it to look like the Spadina streetcar in rush hour.

If the ridership is double or triple the projections in 2031 or later, they can always add a 3rd car to the trains increasing train capacity by 50%, and run very frequent service within the tunnel.