[crs1026]

The problem with Wynne's plan was its emphasis on (virtually unfettered) borrowing, there was nothing much wrong with the routes or service concepts (I'm looking forwards, not back at things already built, so let's leave UPE aside).

Brown does not need to come out as opposed to any of the current plans. He merely needs to declare a more fiscally restrained total envelope. The same projects can compete for priority, and that curve from the RER BCA that shows the big hump from 2017-2025 will spread out towards 2030 or beyond.

This will constrain the things that aren't already underway, sure, but it won't make enemies or create appearance of takeaways. My prediction is, electrification, and not routes, would be the thing pushed furthest away. So politically very palatable. We might see 30-minute diesel instead of 15-minute RER, but those routes have no all day service at the moment....so a huge step forward in a voter's eyes. Maybe good is actually good enough.

- Paul

 

[Steve X]

Rbt don't be so cynical. Brown is not like other conservatives and we have not see his transit plan.

Maybe he doesn't even have one.

Brown could just cancel the highway 427 extension, stop the highway 400 extension, kill the Mississauga, Hamilton and Sheppard West LRT. Don't electrify RER and take back the money from the Scarborough subway. Sell the 407 east/412/418. Easy $10B. Oh just cut the UPX to half hour would save $$$.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Rbt don't be so cynical. Brown is not like other conservatives and we have not see his transit plan.

Ugh, wasn't Brown regarded as being the most right wing candidate in the PC leadership race? This doesn't give me much hope that he'll do much good on the transit file.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Brown does not need to come out as opposed to any of the current plans. He merely needs to declare a more fiscally restrained total envelope. The same projects can compete for priority, and that curve from the RER BCA that shows the big hump from 2017-2025 will spread out towards 2030 or beyond.

So you're suggesting further delaying transit expansion in the GTA?

 

[TheTigerMaster]

I'm expecting Brown to cancel RER.

 

[Steve X]

Brown probably hates transit and thinks its for the poor. Being a con, he'll just screw the poor over.

I have no hopes for him either.

 

[rbt]

Rbt don't be so cynical. Brown is not like other conservatives and we have not see his transit plan.

I knew him when he was a councillor in Barrie so my expectations aren't based on the history of his party; people change and I hope that's the case here too.

 

[Leo_Chan]

Maybe he doesn't even have one.

Brown could just cancel the highway 427 extension, stop the highway 400 extension, kill the Mississauga, Hamilton and Sheppard West LRT. Don't electrify RER and take back the money from the Scarborough subway. Sell the 407 east/412/418. Easy $10B. Oh just cut the UPX to half hour would save $$$.

Is that a bit extreme? If we're going there, he's gonna fill up the Eglinton Crosstown tunnels. /sarcasm

 

[TheTigerMaster]

I knew him when he was a councillor in Barrie so my expectations aren't based on the history of his party; people change and I hope that's the case here too.

Brown has been a stanch conservative forever. His fundamental political views aren't going to change over an election cycle. However he might compromise if he believe it'll win him an election

 

[Cobra]

It's seriously Horvath's election to lose. If she got her act together she could win and it would be unlikely that she would undo the current transit projects and would reinstate the provincial subsidies to the TTC to avoid tolling the Gardiner and DVP (I would still toll them)

 

[innsertnamehere]

I'm expecting Brown to cancel RER.

why exactly? The 905 is where Brown needs to win to take control of Queens Park, and he isn't going to help his case by cutting GO improvements.

The key issue for 2018 looks like it will be Hydro, not transit. Especially with Federal infrastructure money pouring in, the political climate just isn't there for widespread transit capital funding cuts like we saw in the 1990's.

I can see focus shifting on new funding towards subways, but that is about it. DRL will be popular, Yonge Extension, etc. Even projects like the Hurontario LRT is widely supported by the municipality and cancelling it will do nothing but piss off voters.

A lot of projects will be "safe" once the election rolls around anyway. 427 extension will be under construction, Finch will be under construction, Eglinton is already "safe", a lot of GO improvements will be tendered out (though not under a P3 which means they could be cancelled mid contract), etc.

407 sale would also have horrible political optics, so I doubt that would happen.


Brown isn't going to waltz into office and immediately copy all of the largest blunders of the last conservative government. They aren't that stupid. It would be like the liberal's waltzing in and cancelling a bunch of new power plants again, they aren't stupid enough to try and pull that again.

I suspect Brown will focus on getting hydro costs down, probably by cutting environmental regulations, deregulating stuff like planning (which has become rather bloated in recent years), and cutting provincial operating costs like healthcare and other government services.

regardless, we just cannot know until next year when platforms are released.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Maybe he doesn't even have one.

Brown could just cancel the highway 427 extension, stop the highway 400 extension, kill the Mississauga, Hamilton and Sheppard West LRT. Don't electrify RER and take back the money from the Scarborough subway. Sell the 407 east/412/418. Easy $10B. Oh just cut the UPX to half hour would save $$$.

Ugh, wasn't Brown regarded as being the most right wing candidate in the PC leadership race? This doesn't give me much hope that he'll do much good on the transit file.

I knew him when he was a councillor in Barrie so my expectations aren't based on the history of his party; people change and I hope that's the case here too.

Yeah, but he did kind of clamp down on extremeism, I don't think the new kid will have much of a say. I think he wants to win. So I think he'll do more than what you guys expect.

The problem with Wynne's plan was its emphasis on (virtually unfettered) borrowing, there was nothing much wrong with the routes or service concepts (I'm looking forwards, not back at things already built, so let's leave UPE aside).

Brown does not need to come out as opposed to any of the current plans. He merely needs to declare a more fiscally restrained total envelope. The same projects can compete for priority, and that curve from the RER BCA that shows the big hump from 2017-2025 will spread out towards 2030 or beyond.

This will constrain the things that aren't already underway, sure, but it won't make enemies or create appearance of takeaways. My prediction is, electrification, and not routes, would be the thing pushed furthest away. So politically very palatable. We might see 30-minute diesel instead of 15-minute RER, but those routes have no all day service at the moment....so a huge step forward in a voter's eyes. Maybe good is actually good enough.

- Paul

Agreed, and I would be fine with 30 min all day. As long as Richmond Hill and Milton are in that too.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

why exactly? The 905 is where Brown needs to win to take control of Queens Park, and he isn't going to help his case by cutting GO improvements.

I don't think transit is as high a priority for 905 voters as we'd like to imagine. They're already living a car-centric lifestyle. Patrick Brown can still carry the 905 without RER, while cutting billions from the budget and appearing to deal with hydro prices.

 

[innsertnamehere]

I don't think transit is as high a priority for 905 voters as we'd like to imagine. They're already living a car-centric lifestyle. Patrick Brown can still carry the 905 without RER, while cutting billions from the budget and appearing to deal with hydro prices.

Ah, but traffic is a huge deal. And almost everyone holds the opinion that "Toronto has horrible transit for a city its size" - GO expansion is extremely popular, half of southern Ontario is constantly vying for it.. Places as far as London has seen mayor's muse about getting GO service.

When you sit on traffic for 40 minutes every day on the 404, or 410, or 401, or 403, or whatever, the idea that cancelling major transportation infrastructure investments will not go down well. Most people understand that GO expansion is a good thing that positively correlates with improved travel times - most people are aware of the quality of service that the Lakeshore lines provide as an existing example, even in the outer 905.

The issue for 905 voters isn't transit, you are right. The issue is traffic, and most 905 voters understand that transit improves traffic, or better yet, lets them bypass the traffic entirely.

Also, Hydro isn't a massive deal in the 905 like it is in the rest of Ontario. What is killing most hydro bills is the delivery charge, which is much higher in rural areas. Suburban areas are seeing increased hydro bills, but they are increasing by 10% annually, not 50% like in some rural areas. People are pissed, but it isn't destroying entire disposable incomes like it is in rural areas.

For ancedotal evidence, most of my rather large family resides in the outer 905 belt (Waterloo to Oshawa), and most are very supportive of GO expansion. Lots of conservative voters in the bunch too.

 

[TransitBart]

The problem with Wynne's plan was its emphasis on (virtually unfettered) borrowing, there was nothing much wrong with the routes or service concepts (I'm looking forwards, not back at things already built, so let's leave UPE aside).

Brown does not need to come out as opposed to any of the current plans. He merely needs to declare a more fiscally restrained total envelope. The same projects can compete for priority, and that curve from the RER BCA that shows the big hump from 2017-2025 will spread out towards 2030 or beyond.

This will constrain the things that aren't already underway, sure, but it won't make enemies or create appearance of takeaways. My prediction is, electrification, and not routes, would be the thing pushed furthest away. So politically very palatable. We might see 30-minute diesel instead of 15-minute RER, but those routes have no all day service at the moment....so a huge step forward in a voter's eyes. Maybe good is actually good enough.

- Paul

And we're supposed to get to work how?