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allengeorge
Senior Member
Given this news, my bet is March 2025 for an opening.
First off, I’m not surprised the software has defects - all software has defects! And integration time is when the most surprising ones show up, so I’m sympathetic.
That said, it (sounds?) like they’re next rolling out a release after 3 months, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they needed a at least another release after that. I would really like to know the cadence of their previous releases, so we could predict how long that would take. At any rate, I doubt it’s faster than a month - so that takes us to July.
Presumably you want to train your operators on as close to a finalized system as possible, so maybe that’s when the TTC starts really training their 20 trainers and 90 operators. I can’t imagine that will take anything under a couple of months - probably 3. By that time you’re already in October.
And then of course - the 1 month bedding-in period, so, November.
I would truly be sketchy about opening the line in winter. Too many unknowns and a high likelihood of something going wrong (like, say, a van going onto the tracks when there’s snow on the ground).
Honestly, the Crosstown is the biggest running joke/frustration in transit construction anyways, so you take your lumps and punt until spring, when there are some sunny days, politicians, can stand in their suits and cut some ribbons, and everyone is just feeling a little more positive about the world. You can also give yourself some buffer room here: clean up some more defects, handle some delays in training, etc etc.
At least that’s what I’d do.
PS. I’m making the assumption here that the software is the most problematic component, not the construction certificates.
First off, I’m not surprised the software has defects - all software has defects! And integration time is when the most surprising ones show up, so I’m sympathetic.
That said, it (sounds?) like they’re next rolling out a release after 3 months, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they needed a at least another release after that. I would really like to know the cadence of their previous releases, so we could predict how long that would take. At any rate, I doubt it’s faster than a month - so that takes us to July.
Presumably you want to train your operators on as close to a finalized system as possible, so maybe that’s when the TTC starts really training their 20 trainers and 90 operators. I can’t imagine that will take anything under a couple of months - probably 3. By that time you’re already in October.
And then of course - the 1 month bedding-in period, so, November.
I would truly be sketchy about opening the line in winter. Too many unknowns and a high likelihood of something going wrong (like, say, a van going onto the tracks when there’s snow on the ground).
Honestly, the Crosstown is the biggest running joke/frustration in transit construction anyways, so you take your lumps and punt until spring, when there are some sunny days, politicians, can stand in their suits and cut some ribbons, and everyone is just feeling a little more positive about the world. You can also give yourself some buffer room here: clean up some more defects, handle some delays in training, etc etc.
At least that’s what I’d do.
PS. I’m making the assumption here that the software is the most problematic component, not the construction certificates.
toronto647
Active Member
Another winter for folks to take busses on eglinton will be very challenging and disappointing for riders. Also the snow logic doesn't make sense because as we all know snow storms can last all the way till April lol.
An announcement for the opening date has to be made by end of 2024 or else it will be challenging to show face and impact the Conservatives chances of winning another election imo
allengeorge
Senior Member
IIRC the next provincial election is 2026. That’s plenty of time, and no one will remember this as an OPC issue. Metrolinx does one thing supremely well: they take the fall for whoever their political masters are, and people blame Metrolinx for this, not Queens Park.
Besides, assuming the Trudeau government somehow manages to stumble through 2024, there will be a federal election in 2025 taking up all the oxygen.
As such, 2025 is a fine year for opening. There’s really no political downsides to the OPC IMO. There’s far more of a downside if the Crosstown opens and then it has to shut again.
goodcitywhenfinished
Active Member
The political cost of not opening this line by the end of 2024 is very high. How many anticipated opening years have gone by now?
That being said, I agree with @allengeorge here. It does not seem likely for this line to open by December knowing what we know now.
I expect Finch West to open this year and Metrolinx will probably go all in on Finch-related PR to take attention away from the crosstown.
That being said, I agree with @allengeorge here. It does not seem likely for this line to open by December knowing what we know now.
I expect Finch West to open this year and Metrolinx will probably go all in on Finch-related PR to take attention away from the crosstown.
Amare
Senior Member
At this point I dont even care anymore about these stupid "progress" percentage report updates. It's clear Metrolinx and Crosslinx are both completely lost and inept in terms of when the project will finally be complete and the whole thing is a mismanged screw up, where people do whatever they want on their own timeline since no one faces any consequences if a "deadline" is missed.
Even if the thing opened in 2030, no one would face any consequence, especially with the way we've seen things "progress". This project is an abject failure from a project management and construction perspective and it's clear that the contracts given out did not give out stiff penalties for the kind of non-sense we've been seeing.
The length of time it's taking to rectify all these issues is just laughable, and they'd probably be better off paying Torontonians to finish this project for them.
Even if the thing opened in 2030, no one would face any consequence, especially with the way we've seen things "progress". This project is an abject failure from a project management and construction perspective and it's clear that the contracts given out did not give out stiff penalties for the kind of non-sense we've been seeing.
The length of time it's taking to rectify all these issues is just laughable, and they'd probably be better off paying Torontonians to finish this project for them.
reinventingthewheel
Active Member
I have no sympathy for this, they’ve had every opportunity to mitigate software risks. There are very nearly zero differences in software testing conditions now as compared to several years ago when they could first run trains up and down portions of the route. Even if there are new factors to consider at this point, those responsible should have established, streamlined processes by now for change management. 3 months for the next software revision, how can that be?
ZEBuilder
Active Member
ION opened without ATP to begin with, it was months into operation before they finally got it to work, I want to say late 2019 or early 2020 but it could've been later than that, the signs that indicate the various signaling blocks were up by late 2020. Even now nearly 5 years after the ION opened there's still issues with ATP throughout the system, the issues that exist don't inhibit operation of the system in a major way, so they're being left alone for now.
allengeorge
Senior Member
Yeah - 3 months feels over the top.
That said, I’ve no real understanding of what software change management and testing in this space looks like. No doubt it’s highly regulated and documentation heavy. And, my understanding is that they’re testing the integration prior to deploying something to the line, so maybe there is lots of iteration in the background?
I’m broadly sympathetic to the problem, but don’t know the specifics of the situation, and agree that your comments are valid.
ARG1
Senior Member
Insert XKCD about the incompetence of Software Engineers: https://xkcd.com/2030/
allengeorge
Senior Member
The amusing thing is that both those products referenced in the cartoon (airplanes, elevators) have a substantial amount of software.
No one would pay for having the same quality standard for LOB software. The testing and documentation requirements are over-the-top.
ARG1
Senior Member
Not that I disagree (or want to bring the thread even further off topic), but the 737 MAX is recent memory...
christiesplits
Senior Member
I've read some concerns that the Crosstown, especially on the Eglinton East section, could be close to nearing capacity at time of opening. Is this a valid concern? Also, is there the capacity for additional Freedoms to be added to service later?
T3G
Senior Member
No, it's just used to discredit the choice of LRT for the corridor.
generalcanada
Senior Member
From what I remember the crosstown wont be true ATC in the tunnels? like the human drivers will still drive them?
If it recall correctly the only time the trains run on their own is in the yard,
I question if these software updates can wait until after opening?
Unless these bugs are part of the train protection system built into it
If it recall correctly the only time the trains run on their own is in the yard,
I question if these software updates can wait until after opening?
Unless these bugs are part of the train protection system built into it