I usually only come to this site for information on condo sites, and try not to get involved in arguments, but the recent comments on this thread made by maestro and urbandreamer are so ridiculous, misguided, ill-informed and completely wrong that I have to say something.

Simuls is totally right about the trend towards condo living in urban centres for all the reasons he mentioned (proximity to stores/restos/clubs/general city energy, no need for cars because everything is walking or TTC accessible) not to mention that people just love living downtown and more and more people move downtown all the time. It was reported widely for years how cities the world over are seeing huge influxes of people wanting to live in the urban centre. Maestro's non-rebuttal that all of these people (myself included) who live in the city are just figments of some investors' pipedream. Does Maestro seriously think everyone wants to live in the suburbs? Who does he think live in the thousands of condos downtown? I don't know a single person who would move out of the downtown core. Some people decide they want more space to have kids and they just want to stay home all the time but MANY people prefer to live downtown, and condos are the preferred option. Less money, less work.

And maetro's and urbandreamer's crazy 'predictions' of condo prices falling to $99000, or not being able to recover even today's reduced purchase prices are insane. They completely ignore the basic FACT, proven by the entire history of modern civilization, in which EVERY market has ups and downs, but its been proven time and time again that the real estate market is the best longterm investment. Stocks go up and down too, but if your companies go bankrupt your money is lost. Real estate always serves a primary function of shelter, and all the money buyers pay into it is just paying into equity, and they can just live in it or rent it out until the market is up again and make a handsome profit. Rent, regardless of the market, just goes down the toilet and pays off someone else's mortgage. Maetro's dad's buddy maybe needed money and 'had' to sell his investments at a loss, but if he had held on for the 10 year boom right after the late 80s crash, he would have doubled his money. Real estate is NOT like a stock, which you buy hoping to cash out quickly, it is a long term investment and one that should be made when you can afford to hold on until upcycles. But recessions like this are where savvy buyers can start making lots of great investments. I just sold a 'luxury' condo that is in a category that urbandreamer hilariously dismissed as 'forget about it', and I made a hefty profit, and friends who didn't buy when I did have been telling me they wish they'd taken the plunge then.

I don't know if I'm just trying to rebut the comments of a 16 year old who lives in Ajax, but in any case, I had to put a more realistic perspective on the board.
 
riley, I think it's safe to say that their opinions are in the minority.

Just to play devil's advocate, I think the direction we're headed with loads of 1-bedroom and <600sqft condos on the market is unsustainable. When larger units are being divided into smaller units (which Fly has done), what happens when our ageing population (which Canada has) grows up and wants to raise families, or simply upgrade? Flight to the suburbs as multi-bedroom units become prohibitively high in value? Will neighbourhoods full of condos like this become sparsely-populated ghost towns? Despite the city's good intentions -- Adam Vaughan has been pushing for family-sized units in his district -- market forces are such that smaller condos are easier to sell in the short term. And for that same reason, the developers aren't to blame either.
 
Grey, for sure people will outgrow their small condo units, and will upgrade to bigger spaces either in the city (they do exist, both big condos and LOTS of houses, in the city) or if they want they can go to the burbs. But your argument seems to suggest that there will be no young people ready to take over these smaller spaces, which is untrue. There are crowded universities all over the country (and in other countries) where a vast number of graduates will immediately make the move to the nearest urban centre to get a job and start a life. Toronto is the biggest urban centre in all of Canada so we get a disproportionate number of this influx and it also happens to have the most jobs and widest range of career opportunities (my industry doesn't even exist in smaller cities). There is also no shortage whatsoever of young people looking to move up from renting to buying. There are also more and more immigrants every year, who also flock to urban centres like Toronto because of the established ethnic communities and also the wider work opportunities. Part of the population is 'aging' but there are also many more incoming and upcoming people who are ready and waiting to take their place
 
Riley.
You are right on the money.
I too have been reading these comments. I do because they give me a good chuckle. These pessimists and doom predicters were around and laughing at me when I bought my first condo back in 1974. I put down my life savings of 2,500 on a 2 bedroom condo being built by Olympia and York just off of Wynford Dr. in Don Mills. It was expensive! 23,500. I couldn't even afford a fridge and stove. (They were extra then). Boy, did I get a riding from a lot of people back then.
Today my properties are worth several million and it all started with that 2,500. Was I lucky? Hardly. I simply stayed the course. It didn't happen overnight and there were some nasty long corrections. Even my mistakes (and I made some beauties!) became modest winners eventually.
These guys will be around quoting twisted statistics and predicting doom for us all 10/15 years from now when downtown real estate has double again, no doubt ..and it will. Anybody wanna bet me? See you in 15 years. And no doubt during the next decade or so these folks will still be keeping their wrists limber writing those monthly rent cheques, while praising themselves for being so smart.
I've been listening to, and reading articles from these geniuses who love to bombard anyone who will listen to them, with 'facts' all my life and will continue to. They are entertaining!
 
And maetro's and urbandreamer's crazy 'predictions' of condo prices falling to $99000, or not being able to recover even today's reduced purchase prices are insane. They completely ignore the basic FACT, proven by the entire history of modern civilization, in which EVERY market has ups and downs, but its been proven time and time again that the real estate market is the best longterm investment. Stocks go up and down too, but if your companies go bankrupt your money is lost. Real estate always serves a primary function of shelter, and all the money buyers pay into it is just paying into equity, and they can just live in it or rent it out until the market is up again and make a handsome profit. Rent, regardless of the market, just goes down the toilet and pays off someone else's mortgage. Maetro's dad's buddy maybe needed money and 'had' to sell his investments at a loss, but if he had held on for the 10 year boom right after the late 80s crash, he would have doubled his money. Real estate is NOT like a stock, which you buy hoping to cash out quickly, it is a long term investment and one that should be made when you can afford to hold on until upcycles. But recessions like this are where savvy buyers can start making lots of great investments. I just sold a 'luxury' condo that is in a category that urbandreamer hilariously dismissed as 'forget about it', and I made a hefty profit, and friends who didn't buy when I did have been telling me they wish they'd taken the plunge then.
Click to expand...

Can you not comprehend? The condos bought 20 years ago are almost worth exactly the same today. How could he have possibly doubled his money at the likely 16% interest?

Also, real estate is a safe investment but possibly the worst long term investment unless you can pay entirely in cash and at the right time. The potential supply of condos is also endless because you don't individually own high valued land. Look, I've invested in condos and came out well ahead. All I'm saying is that anyone that bought in the last few years are bound to lose a lot of money whether it be from cashing out and accepting their loses or mortgage interest paid waiting for the cycle to rebound. To put it in the simplest of terms, The odds favour a condos currently sell at $600 ft2 dropping to $300 ft2 over $800 ft2. My first purchase was condos. I inherited some money and bought three condos for around $150,000 CASH. This was 1996.


P.S. The very fact you confuse apartment living with condo ownership and that you apparently can't see a skyline dominated by 20 plus year old condominiums in front of you says enough to me. M'thinks your broker/boss has found the perfect someone to unload some his inventory onto.
 
Thank you Granny. It's nice to hear there are other people in the real world on this board. A story like yours is inspiring amid the doom and gloom. I don't have the years of investment that you have, but I did do extremely well with my first purchase, and it has totally inspired me to do it again. I have friends who acquired lots of properties over time and one of them was able to quit her job because of the rental income. I don't plan to make a career out of it, but I definitely want to start a small real estate portfolio and a recession market like this is a perfect time to do it. As for all the naysayers, I don't understand why people who seemingly hate real estate so much spend so much time on a real estate board.
 
I too have been reading these comments. I do because they give me a good chuckle. These pessimists and doom predicters were around and laughing at me when I bought my first condo back in 1974. I put down my life savings of 2,500 on a 2 bedroom condo being built by Olympia and York just off of Wynford Dr. in Don Mills. It was expensive! 23,500. I couldn't even afford a fridge and stove. (They were extra then). Boy, did I get a riding from a lot of people back then.
Today my properties are worth several million and it all started with that 2,500.
Click to expand...

And you can pick up those condos for around 200 now. I hope you don't still have it.
 
As for all the naysayers, I don't understand why people who seemingly hate real estate so much spend so much time on a real estate board.
Click to expand...

What are you? 13 years old?

(moderators, be kind)
 
Maestro,
1) I think its hilarious that just because I recognize that real estate is a good investment you 'accuse' me of being a real estate agent who's 'boss' is a 'broker'. You are insane. I do not work at all in real estate, I just have an interest and have made money with property personally. Do you seriously think anyone who disagrees with you must be in the industry with an agenda? Unbelievable. And when I need an opinion on a real estate matter, I always ask my real estate agent, and she always gives me real advice, which is sometimes that its not a good price, don't buy. She's not always just trying to force sales down my throat.

2) What do you mean when you say I don't understand the difference between apartment living and condo ownership? What's to understand? Many people who can't afford to buy, but want to live downtown rent. Eventually many of them want to own, so they buy. investors also buy condos to rent out, with a view to making rental income, and also selling at a profit later on. You haven't even made a point! In your former post ALL you say is "they're called APARTMENTS!" What was even the point of that comment? And what is the differentiation now that you seem to think I don't grasp? I have been a renter, and I have been an owner. It's really not complicated. You don't even present an argument, you just sling half-assed insults. Enjoy your mother's basement.
 
maestro said:
And you can pick up those condos for around 200 now. I hope you don't still have it.
Click to expand...

Oh dear. Perhaps I should have listened to someone like you 35 years ago.
It's way too late for me now.
Perhaps you could enlighten me with a few facts and statistics to show me where I went wrong.:D
Please try to eliminate the insults (like the one above to Riley) while you are at it. Whatever credibility you are trying to portray melts fairly quickly with those types of comments.
 
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BOY!
Did we get off topic. My humblest apologies, mods.
 
Note to board: I am not going to engage in further arguing with Maestro. I think all the points have been made and nothing left to say.
 
Being a stats guy I figured I would take a look at 20 year old condos to see what their appreciation has been to combat Maestro's comment.

Based on a sample of 45 buildings registered in 1989.

Data from the first three months of 1999.
135 resales, average price $164,000, $147 psf.

Data from the first three months of 2009.
94 resales, average price $230,000, $208 psf.

40% increase in 10 years, 4% a year will not make you rich but it is better than a lot of other investment options!
 
Wasn't 1989 a high point in prices just as 2009 is? Compare 1995 to today and you'll have done much better. Of course if you compare 1989 to 1995 you probably lost money. I bought my place in 1997 and it has doubled since. The price I paid in 1997 was 10% less than the previous owner paid in 1988. Like the stock market timing is everything.
 
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